Anyone exiting the market and converting into cash? With inflation high that's a guaranteed portfolio loss but with turmoil as a big potential I'm struggling to see where to de-risk for a year or so
Printable View
Anyone exiting the market and converting into cash? With inflation high that's a guaranteed portfolio loss but with turmoil as a big potential I'm struggling to see where to de-risk for a year or so
Could be a good time to buy prime property.
Low rates, high inflation and the never ending shortage of supply of prime housing stock should mean it'll continue do ok over the next 10 years.
If you want to do it inside your SIPP or ISA then there are a few good UK based REITs.
I owe a thank you to someone on here. I don’t know much about shares etc but someone on here recommended THCA ages ago. Just checked my HL account and my £1000 is now £1250! Thank you.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I'm not. I am currently buying another property.
However I have traded LXI in the past, and another which I can't find the ticker for (can't remember what it was called)
They can be a good alternative to Buy To Let as they give a reasonably comparable yield (3-4%) and you can hold it within a SIPP or ISA which hugely improves the longer term profits over owning a real house. Then there is the capital gains tax issue. If you own a real property as a BTL and it doubles in value, you're left with a huge CGT tax bill when you sell it. If the cash is in your ISA instead, and you've built up a big pot over many years, there is no CGT to pay as you can just remove your annual allowance each year, rather than having to take it all in one go when you sell a property. (This is still an advantage even if the REIT is not held inside a UK tax wrapper.)
Obviously there are also advantages to owning the real thing.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-s...lc-ord-gbp0.01
Given all the positives you outline why bother buying another property?
The only reason for buying physical property is the ability to leverage via a mortgage.
Most REITs I’ve researched are focused on commercial property of various types. None seem to hold domestic property.
I’ve sent you a PM Rick.
I decided that while I could still bag a couple of good interest rates on BTL and a holiday let mortgage, and while inflation is likely to be high for a few years, it ought to be a good time to take on a massive debt to buy prime UK property.
I expect the inflation rate (house price appreciation) to be 2 to 3 times what the mortgage rate is, so in effect, the borrowing is free.
But going on my recent run of luck with investing, I’ll be having the houses repossessed and will be bankrupt by next Christmas. :welcoming:
You're certainly supposed to, yes.
BTL mortgage companies are apparently cracking down on their clients who are found to be Air B&Bing the house. I'm not entirely sure why it's a problem as long as the monthly repayments are being met, but it does seem that having the wrong type of mortgage for what you're using the property for is a big no-no.
I imagine if you had a BTL mortgage and wanted to turn it into a holiday let, your lender might let you do so, but best to let them know.
The proper holiday let mortgages are currently roughly 1% more expensive than the average BTL loan.
I think BTL loans are currently about 0.5% to 1% more than a regular primary residence mortgage.
The risk is greater for holiday letting as there is no assured shorthand tenancy with semi-guaranteed rental income.
With inflation running at 7% any products known that come close to this figure?
Chase 1.5%
Vanguard S & P 500 EFT ?
Pretty big news I think
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...c0be0881d1.jpg
I just signed papers to engage a wealth management firm to manage my 'wealth.' :biggrin-new:
I've been sitting with the large majority of my assets out of the market in cash, just waiting for some clarity in the markets. I'm now convinced that the professionals at this firm can do far better than me in making informed decision on a daily basis, under the umbrella of my 'conservative' style.
I've enjoyed playing hunches with small amounts, but at 74 I can't risk big plays.
Feeling good. :encouragement:
Any sneaky punts on Tesla?
Markets seem worried about covid, rampant inflation, world war 3 and global recession, big babies
Just checked the Argos Blockchain boards and all seems to be going well, bitcoin just in front of a huge upswing, new ETF in Australia, huge whales looking to buy and unicorns on their way to save it all. One pound per share only a question of time and then £5, followed by £500. Get in before it's too late.
The JP Morgan Cryptocurrency Basket, scheduled to wind up this weekend, ain't looking so hot either. Currently sitting a touch shy of -30% by my reckoning. And that's before deducting the initial purchasing costs (~1.6%), 'Basket Charge' (1.5%) and selling costs (tbd).
Best day so far this year.
Short Tesla, bitcoin and Carvana, long PHRRF. Some smaller losers, but the big tickets all in the right direction. That was badly needed.
I have no individual stocks but my pension is heavy on an emerging markets fund, which has tanked over the last year (down 15%). I don't know whether it will rebound well over the next 5-10 years or whether I should switch it out to a different/safer index fund.
Second biggest weighting is small cap, and that isn't doing so well either!
I do.
To watch his slow motion train wreck is giving me a lot of satisfaction. He has painted himself into a corner that he won't get out anymore, unless he walks from the Twitter deal. He could obviously do that (and the selloff in TWTR tells you something about what the market think), but I don't think he has the ability to admit that it was a shite idea to start with. So he will go through with it, and so far it doesn't seem like he will find co-investors - which means he will have to sell quite a bit of Tezzla to make the cash equity requirement for the TWTR financing, which will in turn impede his collateral for the loans. The moment TSLA hits $600, it will enter the accelerator when Morgan Stanley will start selling Tezzler stock. Delicious. Then, you have a number of other triggers that could accelerate the selloff: the FSD investigations, the $420 buyout litigation with the SEC and not least the class action suit about the Solar City takeover. Any of these has the potential to be the deadly trigger for the final selloff. My target for TSLA in 12 months is below $200.
I sold more today at $914.
I borrowed stock and sold it to the market, knowing that I have to buy it back at some time in the future to deliver it back to the lender. My expectation is that the share price is lower in the future and that it will cost me less to buy the stock back versus what I received for it when I sold.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance)
I also sometimes use options to express bullish or bearish views, for the moment I am owner of puts to sell Carvana stock at a fixed price because I expect it to go lower.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option...nd_application
Never a boring day with Tezzler.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...d2c9ab0623.jpg
Could be an interesting development to watch the effects of - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitco...000246487.html
I've stopped talking about Argo on here, but today's FY results are worth a mention. They are transformational for the company.
https://assets.website-files.com/619...esentation.pdf
They announced a 4X of the hast rate by year end. They will be firing up the first miners at the new Helios facility in the next week or two, with the first of the 20,000 new Bitmain S19J miners already having been delivered. The full 20,000 miners are already 2/3rds paid for.
They also assured shareholders there won't be any more dilution this year, which was a major concern that was holding the SP back.
I don't expect to win my £3 bet with Raffe by the end of June, but I do expect to see £3 SP by the end of the year.
Amazing that they've built and paid for this entire enormous facility in the last 12 months.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhp6GC7IMzk
Also, if Argo meet their hash rate predictions by year end and if Mara continue to stagnate with theirs, Argo could have a higher h/r than Mara, despite currently having an MCap that's one sixth of theirs.
Argo has always under promised and over delivered.
Mara have continually massively over-egged their expected future hash. The chart on this page has looked the same all year, just with the last two blue bars moving along each month.
https://ir.marathondh.com/news-event...production-and
I am old enough to remember their catastrophic H1 2021 financial performance and how they missed all of their revenue and earnings per share targets. I just tried to quickly look for the outlook that they communicated at the time, but somehow none of those presentations is available on their websites anymore.
I can't be fussed to waste more time on this but they certainly have never reached their own financial targets.
The area that they have consistently overperformed is the issuance of new stock and the sale of stock by company insiders. At least in this area they are world-leading.
Best of luck, you will need it.
Bought some stonks earlier.
MSTR at $329
SQ at $95
RIOT at $10.40
All seem incredibly cheap.
Let’s see how things pan out after Jay Powell’s speech.
About as well as your crypto and stock price predictions. :biggrin-new:
Banter aside, I am still not sure if this bout of inflation is going to be sticky. It started off by a demand explosion combined with a temporary resource shortage - but has meantime been complicated by so many seemingly unrelated issues that it has gone much further than I ever expected. On the other hand, I am still leaning to discount all the conspiracy theories and give the Fed the benefit of the doubt that they are in a better position to judge this than all armchair experts on Twitter or TZ. The Fed have certainly underestimated it, but still don't seem too worried about it.
We shall see, but I am prepared to accept I was wrong.
Fed statement:
Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20220504a.htm
Fed bounce