When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

Printable View

Show 50 post(s) from this thread on one page

17th March 2020, 14:24
murkeywaters

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montello

Aye, I will sleep better tonight.

I’ve been a long term investor and have done well out of it, part of me feels foolish for jumping and part of me feels foolish for not jumping sooner. However, over the years my decisions have fared well on average so what ever the market brings I won’t have any regrets.

I just wish this whole mess would go away as it’s also affecting some property deals and my business.

It’s hurting but I’m thankful I can take a bit of pain, I really feel for the many poor people who’s jobs and business will be serverly effected.

If only for the crystal ball, main thing is your not stressing as your pension deflates, its locked off now..

Another positive is look for where the best returns will come from once the markets start to stabilise, you may have cashed out but you can now cash in at very low levels..
17th March 2020, 14:30
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by murkeywaters

If only for the crystal ball, main thing is your not stressing as your pension deflates, its locked off now..

Another positive is look for where the best returns will come from once the markets start to stabilise, you may have cashed out but you can now cash in at very low levels..

Yep, I will re enter the market but I just need to catch my breath. First time in 25 years without an interest in the markets (apart from the pension).

I have a horrible feeling we will see some messy business over the next months.
17th March 2020, 17:55
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiny73

The price of paper gold is dropping. Take a look at the price and availability of physical gold.

Nope, it's the price of physical which is dropping (actually not today, but over the past week).

This is the chart of the daily Zurich physical gold price:

https://i.postimg.cc/9MV7VnV2/picture-532.png
17th March 2020, 17:58
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montello

It’s those sorts of indicators that pushed me over the edge.

I’m certain we will see some extreme monetary policy put in place to fix this which I expect will see more money printed and pressure on the banks to prop up good businesses with cash flow issues.

Now I’m in cash I’m worried about inflation.

Governments and Central banks will have a lot to do to fix this and with interest rates as they are I’m wondering what they have left up their sleeves, will be see helicopter money?

Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?
17th March 2020, 18:08
klunk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?

I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.
17th March 2020, 18:22
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by klunk

I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.

That would seem likely but we have had QE for years and inflation has remarkably been low but official figures lag reality.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?

Because inflation is the enemy of cash
17th March 2020, 18:29
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montello

That would seem likely but we have had QE for years and inflation has remarkably been low but official figures lag reality.

You referring to the Rolex inflation? :smug:
17th March 2020, 18:51
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

You referring to the Rolex inflation? :smug:

Oh no ... bubble could be coming to an end.
17th March 2020, 19:12
T1ckT0ck

Where do you put cash sitting in a SIPP? Nowhere I’m guessing ?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
17th March 2020, 19:16
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by T1ckT0ck

Where do you put cash sitting in a SIPP? Nowhere I’m guessing ?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Couldn’t say, my cash is sitting in an ISA wrapper.
17th March 2020, 20:17
Omegamanic

Quote:

Originally Posted by klunk

I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.

In isolation maybe, but when numerous economies are also indulging in QE, then it's a slightly different scenario.
17th March 2020, 20:18
mr noble

I almost bottled it today as well. It’s been painful watching the value of investments and SIPP plummet in the last two weeks.

In the end, I figured that to a large extent, the markets tend to price in the future feeling and sentiment well ahead, so while I tend to agree that things might get worse still, I fear that if I sold out now, I would very possibly miss the buy back timing and end up having to pay more to buy back in in the coming months. That would be even more painful.

I personally felt that it’s safer to just let it be and ride it out. In 15 years, the graph will just show another blip in 2020, much like the one that there was in 2008.

ETA - obviously this tac very much depends on your age and time to retirement.
17th March 2020, 20:32
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr noble

I almost bottled it today as well. It’s been painful watching the value of investments and SIPP plummet in the last two weeks.

In the end, I figured that to a large extent, the markets tend to price in the future feeling and sentiment well ahead, so while I tend to agree that things might get worse still, I fear that if I sold out now, I would very possibly miss the buy back timing and end up having to pay more to buy back in in the coming months. That would be even more painful.

I personally felt that it’s safer to just let it be and ride it out. In 15 years, the graph will just show another blip in 2020, much like the one that there was in 2008.

ETA - obviously this tac very much depends on your age and time to retirement.

Everyone has to make their own call and that all depends on age and circumstances.

I’m hoping to ease into retirement and bailing kept those plans pretty much on track. Deeper losses would have messed things up. I plan to re enter the market in due course and for sure I will probably miss some gains but I can manage that more than the prospect of deeper losses.

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts to today’s financial measures.
17th March 2020, 21:04
tiny73

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Nope, it's the price of physical which is dropping (actually not today, but over the past week).

This is the chart of the daily Zurich physical gold price:

https://i.postimg.cc/9MV7VnV2/picture-532.png

Fair enough but have you seen the £80+ per oz premium over spot on the likes of coininvest? That premium was only around £15 when I was buying at £800 or so per oz.

Availability is also pretty scarce on the smaller bars.
17th March 2020, 21:38
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiny73

Fair enough but have you seen the £80+ per oz premium over spot on the likes of coininvest? That premium was only around £15 when I was buying at £800 or so per oz.

Availability is also pretty scarce on the smaller bars.

Ae you saying an ounce of coins costs £80 more than an ounce of gold bar?

That would be expected, as you cannot buy one ounce of gold bar but only a kilo - smaller quantities always carry a premium. Also, the coins don't mint themselves, and the dealer network also needs to be financed. Obviously, there is also an element of demand and supply in that premium, but not sure it reacts much to external events. Is there a chart where you can track the premium? A quick google returns this, no development over time but at least an explanation of the various premiums for different coins.
17th March 2020, 21:48
mr noble

I’d imagine if this really turns into the apocalypse, gold would be totally valueless. Toilet rolls and baked beans would be the currency of the world. :pig:
17th March 2020, 22:09
Passenger

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr noble

I’d imagine if this really turns into the apocalypse, gold would be totally valueless. Toilet rolls and baked beans would be the currency of the world. :pig:

nah, with guns an ammo you can take all the bog roll and beans you want.
17th March 2020, 22:39
pacifichrono

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passenger

nah, with guns an ammo you can take all the bog roll and beans you want.

nah, with a real apocalypse, even guns and ammo won't help you!
17th March 2020, 22:42
tiny73

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Ae you saying an ounce of coins costs £80 more than an ounce of gold bar?

That would be expected, as you cannot buy one ounce of gold bar but only a kilo - smaller quantities always carry a premium. Also, the coins don't mint themselves, and the dealer network also needs to be financed. Obviously, there is also an element of demand and supply in that premium, but not sure it reacts much to external events. Is there a chart where you can track the premium? A quick google returns this, no development over time but at least an explanation of the various premiums for different coins.

Sorry I wasn’t clear. The premium over the spot price (per oz.) when I was buying physical a few years ago was only around £15 or so ( I’m buying ounce bars rather than kilos, I’m not skyman you know ). I had a look on coininvest this week to see about topping up and the premium is around £80 per oz. over spot (spot was around £1250, to buy physical was between £1330-1350 depending on the product and large swathes were not available). This is on bars, there was was a premium on coins but if I’m honest I wasn’t really looking for coins so didn’t notice the figures.
17th March 2020, 22:50
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiny73

Sorry I wasn’t clear. The premium over the spot price (per oz.) when I was buying physical a few years ago was only around £15 or so ( I’m buying ounce bars rather than kilos, I’m not skyman you know ). I had a look on coininvest this week to see about topping up and the premium is around £80 per oz. over spot (spot was around £1250, to buy physical was between £1330-1350 depending on the product and large swathes were not available). This is on bars, there was was a premium on coins but if I’m honest I wasn’t really looking for coins so didn’t notice the figures.

Again, the spread is to be expected. I suppose the actual day-to-day fluctuation will be a product of dealer markup (which is whatever they will get away with charging), supply (how many places can you still buy these?) and demand (how many are asking for these?). So no big surprise that the spread is widening when people stumble over each other to buy bogrolls and canned beans. But still, the price is lower today than it was a week ago, which perhaps says something about the fact that institutional investors aren't buying the crisis-hedging qualities of gold but simply are selling because they see lower demand for jewellery going forward.
17th March 2020, 23:26
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by pacifichrono

(...) I just placed a modest investment in the stocks of six large U.S. airline companies. In the past 30 days, these six airlines have lost between 40% and 60% of their market value to the coronavirus. (...)

First day didn't go so well:

United -14% today, Delta -11%, Jetblue -10%, American -2%. Shining star is - as always - Southwest at +2%.
18th March 2020, 08:13
Raffe

US markets have lost most of yesterday's gains again after Mnuchin warned of 20% unemployment rate, index futures are halted limit down and the DJ ETF is trading 4.5% lower.
18th March 2020, 08:44
33JS

Quote:

Originally Posted by pacifichrono

As the song goes, "Call me irresponsible..." In the wake of the largest one-day point loss in the history of the Dow, I just placed a modest investment in the stocks of six large U.S. airline companies. In the past 30 days, these six airlines have lost between 40% and 60% of their market value to the coronavirus. Although I read some discussion earlier in the day about possible airline 'bankruptcies,' I quickly gained some confidence when I heard that Trump was reacting very favorably to the airline industry's proposal for a $50 billion aid package. :smug:

I was extremely lucky to dump all my stock holdings at the start of the crisis, so now I figure I can dabble a bit on the "wild side" with an amount that wouldn't hurt too bad if it all went down the toilet. Fingers crossed.

Airlines??? I salute your magnificent testicles!! Global travel/holidays/business visits are fecked.
18th March 2020, 09:23
Passenger

Quote:

Originally Posted by 33JS

Airlines??? I salute your magnificent testicles!! Global travel/holidays/business visits are fecked.

PC has to use a wheel barrow to move them around.
18th March 2020, 10:16
~dadam02~

There was some discussion earlier about investing in equities akin to gambling but bugger me investing in airlines right now is nothing more than a pure punt. Those massive wheelbarrow balls will be tiny little peanut balls soon.
18th March 2020, 11:58
klunk

Gold anybody?

https://moneyweek.com/investments/co...rce=newsletter
18th March 2020, 13:05
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by klunk

Gold anybody?

https://moneyweek.com/investments/co...rce=newsletter

No, I don't see why I would.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is projected to break below 20,000 at the opening today. US Airlines being clobbered.
18th March 2020, 13:18
BillN

Any love for Royal Dutch Shell at the current price?
18th March 2020, 13:25
Raffe

Deutsche Bank just lowered their GDP forecasts for Q2/2020. You better sit down before you continue reading this.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
.
.
.
.
Japan -3.9%. EuroArea -23.6%, Germany -28.4%, US -12.9%. Mind you, this is quarter-on-quarter, so not a full year projection. They say China's GDP has contracted by 31.7% in Q1 and will recover by 34% in Q2 (due to componding, this is -8.5% for H1/2020). Absolutely terrifying.
18th March 2020, 13:39
Passenger

Holy smokes...it's hammer time...
18th March 2020, 14:36
Omegamanic

Crazy times indeed. Only a swift conclusion to current measures would have a positive effect, otherwise it looks like we are in for quite a long bumpy ride. Hold onto your hats!
18th March 2020, 14:41
murkeywaters

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is projected to break below 20,000 at the opening today. US Airlines being clobbered.

Just watched it drop below 20,000 :grief: its probabley going to flirt with 19.000 all day and send more panic though the markets..
18th March 2020, 15:06
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Deutsche Bank just lowered their GDP forecasts for Q2/2020. You better sit down before you continue reading this.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
.
.
.
.
Japan -3.9%. EuroArea -23.6%, Germany -28.4%, US -12.9%. Mind you, this is quarter-on-quarter, so not a full year projection. They say China's GDP has contracted by 31.7% in Q1 and will recover by 34% in Q2 (due to componding, this is -8.5% for H1/2020). Absolutely terrifying.

😳 a long way to go for the markets.
18th March 2020, 16:16
sundial

Peter Loy's scarce/collectable s/h Leica lenses seem to be selling as soon as they're listed … collectable (especially usable collectable) Leica items hold their value … demand usually steady/good

http://www.peterloy.com/stock-list.php
18th March 2020, 17:36
pacifichrono

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passenger

PC has to use a wheel barrow to move them around.

No, no! I mentioned that my bet was a very modest one. If it all goes south, que sera sera.
18th March 2020, 19:18
ryanb741

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Deutsche Bank just lowered their GDP forecasts for Q2/2020. You better sit down before you continue reading this.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
.
.
.
.
Japan -3.9%. EuroArea -23.6%, Germany -28.4%, US -12.9%. Mind you, this is quarter-on-quarter, so not a full year projection. They say China's GDP has contracted by 31.7% in Q1 and will recover by 34% in Q2 (due to componding, this is -8.5% for H1/2020). Absolutely terrifying.

Although Goldman Sachs have a 2020 view (whole year) posted yesterday that is more optimistic on the FY prospects https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...b05eac7446.jpg
18th March 2020, 19:23
crazyp

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillN

Any love for Royal Dutch Shell at the current price?

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commen...yield-ii510928

I will add to my Shell at some point but I'm nervous about the Company's business health.
18th March 2020, 19:44
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by pacifichrono

No, no! I mentioned that my bet was a very modest one. If it all goes south, que sera sera.

Lucky you. Airlines down 30% on average today. Must be down by almost 50% since you bought two and a half days ago?
18th March 2020, 19:52
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffe

Lucky you. Airlines down 30% on average today. Must be down by almost 50% since you bought two and a half days ago?

Double down PC?
18th March 2020, 19:56
Raffe

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montello

Double down PC?

When in trouble, double. [emoji1787]
18th March 2020, 19:57
BillN

Quote:

Originally Posted by crazyp

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commen...yield-ii510928

I will add to my Shell at some point but I'm nervous about the Company's business health.

If Shell go we may as well pack up and go home

They have stopped, (maybe just for now), their share buy back scheme

What is happening is an attack on our basic democracies by this invisible enemy, economies are being destroyed, the world has gone to war for far far less, if you see what I mean!!
18th March 2020, 20:27
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillN

If Shell go we may as well pack up and go home

They have stopped, (maybe just for now), their share buy back scheme

What is happening is an attack on our basic democracies by this invisible enemy, economies are being destroyed, the world has gone to war for far far less, if you see what I mean!!

We will get through this, a friend of mine works with a factory making electronics in China, he reports they are all back at work apart from workers at home for child care. They thinks schools will reopen soon but no official word yet.

My nephew is in lockdown as he teaches English in China. He’s still in lockdown but says there is more movement in his area.

China are a couple of months ahead of us.

There will be significant economic problems but I don’t see this as the end of the world.
18th March 2020, 20:35
BillN

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montello

We will get through this, a friend of mine works with a factory making electronics in China, he reports they are all back at work apart from workers at home for child care. They thinks schools will reopen soon but no official word yet.

My nephew is in lockdown as he teaches English in China. He’s still in lockdown but says there is more movement in his area.

China are a couple of months ahead of us.

There will be significant economic problems but I don’t see this as the end of the world.

Of course it's not the end of the world and we have a lot to be grateful for

But I am 73 and although I accept that I will be in "lockdown" for the next 6 months for my own good, it will be much longer than that before a vaccine has been developed and is available to the general population.............without this the "at risk" groups of people all around the world could be basically house bound for more than a year as this virus could be like the flu virus, but more deadly to the "at risk" groups: so the risk of infection could be with us for a matter of years not months.

We are already on one bottle of wine a night, but we have just ordered "a quantity" in case they run out - not French, but S African
18th March 2020, 21:40
pacifichrono

I've thought for a long time that my trigger point to dive back into the market (if the bottom fell out) was the Dow at 19900, but now I don't think so. :dejection::dontknow:
18th March 2020, 22:11
Omegamanic

It could still be early days.
18th March 2020, 22:15
number2

Video conferencing, holographic / VR conferencing,.
18th March 2020, 22:21
wileeeeeey

Dow 18k is happening imo. 16k not impossible. This guy wearing a Dow 15k hat to work today is hilarious. Only weeks after the other two traders wearing Dow 28k and Dow 29k hats. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...37143690cb.jpg
18th March 2020, 22:24
BillN

The £ is now getting slaughtered

look at the live exchange rates

lowest against the $ for 30 years

and 1.06 against the f.......ing Euro
18th March 2020, 22:36
Montello

Quote:

Originally Posted by pacifichrono

I've thought for a long time that my trigger point to dive back into the market (if the bottom fell out) was the Dow at 19900, but now I don't think so. :dejection::dontknow:

Time to recalibrate. It went below 19000😳
18th March 2020, 22:50
Kingstepper

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillN

The £ is now getting slaughtered

look at the live exchange rates

lowest against the $ for 30 years

and 1.06 against the f.......ing Euro

Why is this, are we perceived to be in greater sh#t than everyone else?

Show 50 post(s) from this thread on one page

All times are GMT +1. The time now is 00:11.