Moonwatch Raffle Participants - Prize Draw Order Poll

This is a poll to allow participants in our current charity fundraising raffle to express a preference in the order that the prizes are drawn. If you are not participating please choose 'no preference'.

The odds of winning any prize are exactly the same regardless of order of the draw. The only difference is the tensions levels!

For anyone interested, an explanation of the maths is here: https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...tickets-matter

The draw is planned for Friday 4 February, World Cancer Day.

Once again, massive thanks for the phenomenal level of support for this. It will make a big difference to those who the charities support.

https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...=1#post5915011

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...05b1d26a_b.jpg

Voted.

By the way, here is some music for us all to listen to at the time of the draw.

http://youtu.be/eTz6Qp7QE_c

I answered Speedmaster last, to keep the tension. I would also find it very interesting if the winners would be able to choose their prizes. The first number would most likely pick the Speedy but there might very well be some surprises too.

Ordinarily with a raffle (i.e. pull a ticket out of the hat style), the winning ticket gets removed from the hat, prize awarded, then play continues. As the ticket is removed from the hat, it can't win again. If your intention is to do it like this (so a ticket can only win once), then I think the would nudge me to suggest the 'best' prize goes first. But to be honest, it's a very minor point and I'd personally be perfectly happy either way it goes.

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Originally Posted by Possu

I answered Speedmaster last, to keep the tension. I would also find it very interesting if the winners would be able to choose their prizes. The first number would most likely pick the Speedy but there might very well be some surprises too.

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That'd be an interesting twist! Probably a nightmare to organise though, i.e. how long do you wait for someone to pick who may be on hols for the week etc.

Speedy first so that everyone has a chance to win.

If it goes last then other winners aren't in with a shout for it.

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Originally Posted by kace

Speedy first so that everyone has a chance to win.

If it goes last then other winners aren't in with a shout for it.

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Although once a ticket is drawn the owner knows that it cannot go on to win another prize, every ticket has an equal probability of winning the first (or any other) prize regardless of draw order. If it is reverse order I suppose you could buy ten tickets so that you know that you will still have a chance of the first prize even if you also win all of the others!

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Originally Posted by kace

Speedy first so that everyone has a chance to win.

If it goes last then other winners aren't in with a shout for it.

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I voted the opposite but that's a very good point

Speedy first makes sense to me as pointed out earlier, everyone’s included then. Good luck either way.


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I have to stress that every ticket has an equal chance of any prize, draw order makes no difference to the probability. You are really voting on whether you want to maintain tension for the vast majority until the end of the draw.

https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...tickets-matter

Mr C, are you saying that the if, for example, my number comes up for the speedy (fingers crossed), it could then be drawn again later in the draw for one of the other prizes?

If that's the case then I'd say to draw the Speedy last as it would increase the tension

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Originally Posted by Mr Curta

I have to stress that every ticket has an equal chance of any prize, draw order makes no difference to the probability. You are really voting on whether you want to maintain tension for the vast majority until the end of the draw.

https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...tickets-matter

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As others have said, if it makes no difference to folks' chances of winning then Speedy last gives the thing an suitable air of drama!

Speedy last would be my preference.

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Originally Posted by badger1

Mr C, are you saying that the if, for example, my number comes up for the speedy (fingers crossed), it could then be drawn again later in the draw for one of the other prizes?

If that's the case then I'd say to draw the Speedy last as it would increase the tension

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No, tickets don't go back in once they have been drawn. But the draw order makes no difference to the probability of a ticket winning the first prize or any of the others. If 500 tickets are sold each ticket has a 1 in 500 chance of winning the Speedmaster regardless of whether that prize is drawn first or last. The only difference is in the entertainment value for participants and observers.

I’m sure we will all be happy any way it goes. Poll seems to be quite even so you’ll need to choose it yourself, as the case ever was. Or I have a novel idea: why not let Laura decide how her raffle will be drawn?

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Originally Posted by Mr Curta

No, tickets don't go back in once they have been drawn. But the draw order makes no difference to the probability of a ticket winning the first prize or any of the others. If 500 tickets are sold each ticket has a 1 in 500 chance of winning the Speedmaster regardless of whether that prize is drawn first or last. The only difference is in the entertainment value for participants and observers.

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Whilst odds are the same, psychologically if you had 1 ticket in the draw and that came out first, you'd feel like you hadn't had the chance to win the speedy (even though you did).

Regardless of the above, I'd still say draw the biggest prizes last! Anyone who wins one of the smaller ones should be more than happy with that.

Alternatively are you allowed to draw all 10 winners out from Speedy down but read them out in reverse order?

It’s a raffle. That’s how they work in my experience with the top prize chosen last!Everyone has the same basic chance depending on how many tickets they have.

Anyone complaining that if they win prize number 5 for example then they had no chance of winning the first prize just sounds like sour grapes to me. If you want more chances then buy more tickets?

Why not just do a poll and do as the majority proposes?

Oh, we just did. Okay, let's argue some more.

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Originally Posted by Mr Curta

No, tickets don't go back in once they have been drawn. But the draw order makes no difference to the probability of a ticket winning the first prize or any of the others. If 500 tickets are sold each ticket has a 1 in 500 chance of winning the Speedmaster regardless of whether that prize is drawn first or last. The only difference is in the entertainment value for participants and observers.

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That’s not actually true because if there were, say, ten prizes then those left in the draw would have a 1 in 491 chance of winning the Speedy and the nine already drawn wound have no chance.

It is true, however, that every ticket has an equal chance of winning a prize.

Given the above, the best prize (speedy in this case) should be drawn first.

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Originally Posted by Raffe

Why not just do a poll and do as the majority proposes?

Oh, we just did. Okay, let's argue some more.

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:notworthy:

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Originally Posted by Dave+63

That’s not actually true because if there were, say, ten prizes then those left in the draw would have a 1 in 491 chance of winning the Speedy and the nine already drawn wound have no chance.

It is true, however, that every ticket has an equal chance of winning a prize.

Given the above, the best prize (speedy in this case) should be drawn first.

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That is only true if you recalculated the odds of winning after each drawn prize, which makes no sense. It's like betting on a football game and complaining that you received the wrong odds after one of the teams scored a goal.

Before drawing commences, all have the same chance.

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Originally Posted by Raffe

That is only true if you recalculated the odds of winning after each drawn prize, which makes no sense.

Before drawing commences, all have the same chance.

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I disagree with the first part whilst obviously agreeing with the second part.

As each ticket is drawn, the odds for the rest of the tickets change whether you choose to recalculate those odds or not.

If the aim is to win the top prize then the only fair way is to draw the top prize whilst all tickets have an equal chance of winning ie first.

Once tickets have been drawn then only those left in the draw have a chance of winning the top prize whilst those that have been drawn have no chance if the top prize is drawn last.

Top prize first, I have never known a raffle drawn any other way.
All the other prizes are just a bonus.

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I despair.


Good night.

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Originally Posted by Dave+63

I disagree with the first part whilst obviously agreeing with the second part.

As each ticket is drawn, the odds for the rest of the tickets change whether you choose to recalculate those odds or not.

If the aim is to win the top prize then the only fair way is to draw the top prize whilst all tickets have an equal chance of winning ie first.

Once tickets have been drawn then only those left in the draw have a chance of winning the top prize whilst those that have been drawn have no chance if the top prize is drawn last.

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Not quite. At the outset all tickets have an equal chance of winning. Whether the 1st ticket pulled from the pile wins the speedy or the 10th ticket pulled from the pile wins the speedy makes no difference to the odds of any individual ticket, so long as the draw order is confirmed in advance of the first ticket being pulled. Mr Curta is absolutely correct on that.

The only downside to the Speedy going last is if your ticket gets pulled for an earlier prize then you essentially lose the anticipation of the 'main draw', which was why I originally voted the other way (Speedy first). However on reflection, any prize is a phenomenal outcome for making a charity donation and the majority of people have multiple tickets anyway, so given my vote again I'd go Speedy last for the sake of building suspense for the majority of participants.

But just to reiterate Mr Curta is absolutely correct that statistically it makes no difference to anyone's chances, this question is purely about the entertainment factor :encouragement:

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Originally Posted by nickyboyo

Top prize first, I have never known a raffle drawn any other way.
All the other prizes are just a bonus.

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Funny because I also have always experienced the first prize drawn last from everything from Cub Scout events to big corporate events!

I find all this a little tasteless to be honest for a charity raffle. The maths is solid that the probabilities remain the same. Review the links that Mr Curta shared as they explain the calculations on why it makes no difference.

If you still can’t accept the probabilities are the same even after reviewing those links then your only option is to buy more tickets so you always have one ticket in pot or sell your tickets on!

I really don’t think it is Mr Curta problem.

If you don't like the drawing procedure, you could also just give back your tickets and not participate.

THAT would change the probabilities for the other participants. Just saying.

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Originally Posted by paw3001

Funny because I also have always experienced the first prize drawn last from everything from Cub Scout events to big corporate events!

I find all this a little tasteless to be honest for a charity raffle. The maths is solid that the probabilities remain the same. Review the links that Mr Curta shared as they explain the calculations on why it makes no difference.

If you still can’t accept the probabilities are the same even after reviewing those links then your only option is to buy more tickets so you always have one ticket in pot or sell your tickets on!

I really don’t think it is Mr Curta problem.

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Originally Posted by Raffe

If you don't like the drawing procedure, you could also just give back your tickets and not participate.

THAT would change the probabilities for the other participants. Just saying.

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Gents - if I may - nobody has remotely suggested they wish to withdraw. As we three can agree the probabilities are unchanged regardless of the draw order, then factually I'm sure we also agree it doesn't actually matter first vs last - hence there is no 'correct' answer to the poll. The conversation is simply about perceptions and preferences.

The only sure-fire way for anyone to increase their odds of winning the raffle is to buy another ticket and further support the charities :love_heart:

Just saying, I'm an actual donator to this draw, and not for the first time either, plus I have bought a ticket.

If I was to be lucky enough to be drawn first and end up with the big orange lump whilst missing out on a chance of the top prize I'd be a bit miffed.

This isn't the local cub scout draw, nor a corporate event, the tickets aren't 50 pence for a strip of 5, or a bit of fun after the cheese board whilst folks start quaffing the free booze.





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Originally Posted by nickyboyo

Just saying, I'm an actual donator to this draw, and not for the first time either, plus I have bought a ticket.

If I was to be lucky enough to be drawn first and end up with the big orange lump whilst missing out on a chance of the top prize I'd be a bit miffed.

This isn't the local cub scout draw, nor a corporate event, the tickets aren't 50 pence for a strip of 5, or a bit of fun after the cheese board whilst folks start quaffing the free booze.





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Remember it is a charity draw...

If you're interested in learning why it makes no difference, think of it like this:

If ​there's 100 tickets in the pot, each ticket has 1/100 chance of being picked 1st, right? Each ticket also has 1/100 chance of being picked 10th, 50th or 100th, at that moment in time before the draw begins. So long as you know up front which number ticket will be the main prize, it makes literally no odds to the end outcome whether it's 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 50th that gets the prize. In the scenario of Speedmaster last, the main prize goes to the 10th ticket drawn.

So while you're totally entitled to your preference on draw order and there's nothing wrong about expressing a preference for main prize first, try not to conflate a personal preference with statistical facts. In the scenario you presented your prize didn't miss out on the chance of the main prize as stated, it had the exact same chance as every other ticket at the main prize. It just didn't win as it didn't land on the 1/100 chance of being pulled 10th.

(p.s. I'm secretly hoping Mr Curta goes Speedmaster first, then you pull 10th and get the Big Orange Lump! :playful: )

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Originally Posted by nickyboyo

...
If I was to be lucky enough to be drawn first and end up with the big orange lump whilst missing out on a chance of the top prize I'd be a bit miffed.
...

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I can see why you'd be miffed, you're trying to get rid of it ! [But seriously, kudos on your contributions and donations, very generous.]

All I did was state the only way, barring corporate events, raffles to be drawn.

As for statistics, I still haven't figured out the scene in 21 where the clever kid is explaining to Kevin Spacey the 3 door scenario.

All I wanted was for the charity to benefit greatly, and it looks like the mission has been accomplished- happy days



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Originally Posted by jukeboxs

I can see why you'd be miffed, you're trying to get rid of it ! [But seriously, kudos on your contributions and donations, very generous.]

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I did try and sell it for Eddie's charity last year, but failed dismally [emoji6]

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Originally Posted by M1011

...it doesn't actually matter first vs last - hence there is no 'correct' answer to the poll. The conversation is simply about perceptions and preferences.

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Exactly this, and thanks for the explanations about the probability.

In the case of Seikopath's famous Nepal earthquake fundraiser, the first prize ticket was drawn first but not announced until after all of the other prizes had been drawn in reverse order. The lower order winners knew that they had missed the chance of that ticket winning the big one before it was announced, but tension was maintained for the vast majority right until the end and nobody could complain that their ticket hadn't been in it for the big one. Probability wise it made no difference at all.

Make the draw whichever you see fit Matthew,

Good luck to all and many thanks to everyone for contributing [emoji106]

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Originally Posted by M1011

Not quite. At the outset all tickets have an equal chance of winning. Whether the 1st ticket pulled from the pile wins the speedy or the 10th ticket pulled from the pile wins the speedy makes no difference to the odds of any individual ticket, so long as the draw order is confirmed in advance of the first ticket being pulled. Mr Curta is absolutely correct on that.

The only downside to the Speedy going last is if your ticket gets pulled for an earlier prize then you essentially lose the anticipation of the 'main draw', which was why I originally voted the other way (Speedy first). However on reflection, any prize is a phenomenal outcome for making a charity donation and the majority of people have multiple tickets anyway, so given my vote again I'd go Speedy last for the sake of building suspense for the majority of participants.

But just to reiterate Mr Curta is absolutely correct that statistically it makes no difference to anyone's chances, this question is purely about the entertainment factor :encouragement:

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I don’t disagree with any of this.

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Originally Posted by Raffe

If you don't like the drawing procedure, you could also just give back your tickets and not participate.

THAT would change the probabilities for the other participants. Just saying.

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It’s a discussion Raffe, no one has said that they don’t like the procedure.

Personally, and having been the winner of one of Mr Curta’s previous draws (last ticket drawn), my expectation is always that I won’t be a winner of any prize and that my participation is purely to help the charities.

That said, I do like the second prize!

Anyone worried about their ticket not being in for the final draw should just buy more tickets.

Well, there was a poll. It's a bit like Brexit, isn't it?

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Originally Posted by Raffe

Well, there was a poll. It's a bit like Brexit, isn't it?

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Being on tapatalk, I don’t even see the poll, let alone have the opportunity to vote (I’m not complaining though, it’s my decision).

I’m more than happy to accept the result of the poll but don’t know which way it went. From your comments, however, I’m assuming that the main prize being drawn last was the result?

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Originally Posted by Dave+63

Being on tapatalk, I don’t even see the poll, let alone have the opportunity to vote (I’m not complaining though, it’s my decision).

I’m more than happy to accept the result of the poll but don’t know which way it went. From your comments, however, I’m assuming that the main prize being drawn last was the result?

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Like Brexit, I said. :nevreness: (poll is still open)

https://i.postimg.cc/rFTkh73B/screen...t-08-50-31.png

A bit less divisive I hope. I'm sure no one will mind which way it goes. The important thing is the amount of money raised, and how quickly, for such good causes. I have some experience of trying to raise money in a similar way (my sister in-law had her expensive wheel chair stolen!), what was so heart warming was the speed of response and messages of support from friends and unknowns. There are lots of caring people out there.

There's no problem with the discussion - the whole idea of this thread was to help me to gauge whether participants liked the excitement of the first prize being drawn last or preferred to not be held in suspense. I didn't anticipate the misconceptions around the probability of winning a prize regardless of draw order, so that has been interesting in itself.

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Originally Posted by Raffe

Like Brexit, I said. :nevreness: (poll is still open)

https://i.postimg.cc/rFTkh73B/screen...t-08-50-31.png

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Cheers Raffe, it could go any way then!

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Originally Posted by Mr Curta

There's no problem with the discussion - the whole idea of this thread was to help me to gauge whether participants liked the excitement of the first prize being drawn last or preferred to not be held in suspense. I didn't anticipate the misconceptions around the probability of winning a prize regardless of draw order, so that has been interesting in itself.

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It is quite interesting, I understand the probability is the same but I suspect if you asked a hundred people on the street to buy one ticket for a draw chosen between one drawn in reverse and one drawn top prize first you'd have more sales for the latter. Probability isn't always logical.

I quite like the idea of the seikopath system.

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Originally Posted by Dave+63

Cheers Raffe, it could go any way then!

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Yep. There was a majority for option 1 until last night, but seems like we are seeing a swing.

I voted Speedy last. More fun.

For the record: I am absolutely convinced that the odds are lessened by having the runners up watches go first, despite knowing I am factually wrong thanks to stupid maths.

I have a plan that should be acceptable to both camps, and doesn't get overly complicated.

Shortly after the participants list becomes finalised I will upload it to https://www.randomresult.com/ticket.php and schedule an automated 'pick items' draw to take place at a specific time, with the number of items picked matching the number of prizes.

randomresult.com will issue a unique 'Ticket Number' which provides a link to the automated draw page. I will post this in a thread in a non-public part of the forum before the draw takes place.

When the automated random draw takes place it will create a placed list of the winning numbers and usernames.

Place #1 will win the Omega Speedmaster, Place #2 the Formex Essence, and so on.

I will announce the results in reverse order in the Raffle Thread. The randomresult.com 'Ticket Number' link can be used to verify the results at any time but no spoilers please.

Sounds like a very solid plan :encouragement: