Reply With QuoteYou can buy any number of very good watches at ridiculous cheap prices on SC thanks to Eddie.
No ones buying them,so I dont see the point of discussing prices yet again.
It doesent matter what the price is if people arent buying.
Some weekend viewing
You can buy any number of very good watches at ridiculous cheap prices on SC thanks to Eddie.
No ones buying them,so I dont see the point of discussing prices yet again.
It doesent matter what the price is if people arent buying.
I hate the price increases, walked by the omega shop in Birmingham today and speedy is more than twice the cost I paid new October 2019 it does make me feel more self conscious about wearing it now which is not a great feeling
A good analysis, I like his content in general. These increases can't be sustainable in the long term surely, as a previous poster said, Speedmasters have doubled in 4 years and they're not the only ones by any means...
Those are the parts which intrigue me. It's not too long ago that there were shortages of some models, but by far there weren't shortages of all models. To some extent can understand the price rises on the 'unobtanium' pieces, as the manufacturers want to reap some of what the greys were enjoying in the last cycle. However the huge rises for watches that were very attainable... seems a potentially risky move. They weren't selling out at the old price in one of the hottest markets ever - in the foreseeable future why will they sell well at the new higher price, especially when lots of new entrants have come into the market?Originally Posted by Speedy2254
Presume the top over-arching brands (Swatch, Richemont, LVMH etc) must have laser-focus on this, and should know what they are doing, how economies may move, positioning their products. So it's interesting that this should seem so out of step at the moment, but they may see this as temporary, and all will be fine with their long term plans.
We'll see...!
He always comes up with interesting and thoughtful content. We’re nearly at a price point where mid tier luxury watches are priced to the point of irrelevance to most people and many enthusiasts. I can’t see a recovery any time soon.
I think have to be careful not to confuse the RRP with the actual average selling prices. So if you take longines the RRP has increased quite a bit in the last few years but I bet the ASP has increased a bit but not by as much.
Sadly it's not easy to get this data for obvious reasons from all brands...
I think we’ll just see a return to discounting, perhaps more than before. Have to remember that the global supply chain has gone up in price significantly so some part of the silly watch price increases were unavoidable.
My guess: in one or two years, 20-25% off omega retail will be routine
I think it’s just a reshaping of the market to try and keep mechanical watches somehow relevant. Let’s face it most youngsters buy a smart watch or don’t wear a watch at all. The big brands are about flexing your wealth to the new generation, and these price increases have stopped a lot of middle aged buyers who remember when they were relatively cheap from buying, but the manufacturers need to keep the prices high to appeal to the flashy youngsters who aren’t really into watches but need something g to go with their £1000 sneakers and fancy car.
Trouble is I’m not convinced that in the longer term those youngsters will buy a collection or have a lifetime interest. I think this is the last gasp cash grab for the mass market - we as WIS see it differently but we’re not really the main focus at the moment imho. When I was young smart watches or phones didn’t exist, so I can’t imagine whether I’d have developed an interest in mechanicals if I’d been born 30 years later?
It’s certainly going to be interesting. My fascination with Rolex, dive watches in general and other things came from the ads in National Geographic Magazines in the school library 45 years ago; all spotted while searching for images of bare chested indigenous ladies. Not sure that journey is one that many people undertake these days…
So freely available hard core porn on the internet will be responsible for the death of the mechanical wristwatch?
Who’d have thought it!
Edit: to avoid any confusion, that was firmly tongue in cheek.
Both my teenaged nephews have apple watches that get more powerful with generation and they are used to them providing a range of useful information - I think it would be pretty odd if they ditched that for a mechanical watch...
I don't do social media and don't normally watch watch videos, but I did take the time to watch this one. Nothing new, but a well put together piece nonetheless. I'm interested as to where he's managing to source his 2nd hand bargains at under 30% of retail...
To avoid any confusion, also known as anilingus.
I used to have so much time for Omega, but I've begun to regard the brand with something pretty near to contempt at this point. Years of mediocre designs, and increasingly ludicrous pricing policy. They are making themselves irrelevant.
Presumably they’ve got their eyes on a bit of the Rolex pie, particularly with the now-decades-long 007 association. Not a good market to be trying to shift up in at the moment of course and there’s the chance they’ll just drive people away to Breitling, Longines or (ironically) Tudor.
Doubt it’ll pay off for them as the brand just doesn’t have the sheer luxe aura of the crown - and that’s from someone who would take a Seamaster over a Submariner if offered both.
I have no idea how Omega are shifting any Speedies at an RRP of £6600 for the hesalite version on a bracelet. I was in one of their boutiques a couple of weeks back and the best they could do was £5950 for a cash sale, which is still frankly ridiculous. Makes me wish I never sold my 1861 as the prices for these have rocketed on the used market too.
I wonder if there is a motivation in that pushing up RRP that drags up used prices and people who have used pieces that have appreciated may be more likely to become repeat customers as an “investment”.
Unlikely, used prices are governed by desirability and supply, if new watches are in short supply (Rolex in recent years) the prices of used watches will be very firm. Second-hand prices do bear some relation to new prices, more so for some brands than others, but I think the limited supply of new watches has had the major influence recently.
I found the comments in the link v. interesting and perfectly logical. Prices of Swiss watches from the major brands have risen to a level that seems unsustainable to me. An increasing majority of the traditional market have no interest in conventional watches, they're happier with a Smart watch that does far more, albeit without the luxury kudos of a 'proper' watch. Those that are interested will be put off by the prices and lack of affordability, many 30-somethings will be struggling to put a decent roof over their heads so they're hardly likely to spend £5-£6K to have a trinket on their wrist. Add in the cost of servicing the thing after a few years and it looks even less tempting.
The market makes no sense, and in my view it can only defy logic for a limited time;possibly that time is drawing to a close? When I finished work in 2010 I often travelled into Leeds and did the rounds of the watch shops, focussing on Rolex and Omega. Windows were full of readily available models at less than half the current prices (30% in for Omega) and typically each shop would have a customer or two in, with a few more looking in the windows. Contrast that to the current situation, the streets seem busier but fewer people are looking in watch shops or actually going inside, window displays are virtually empty so there's very little to actually look at. To me the general interest and awareness has waned, that's how it looks, yet paradoxically the demand for many Rolex models has outstripped supply recently!
Where's it all going?........who knows. I think the Swiss have shot themselves in the foot but as ever I could be wrong.
I don't see it. It's just a brand issue, and that can be fixed. People are willing to pay £15k for Speedmasters with a Snoopy image on, or £11k for a SpeedyTuesday. These watches aren't any better than a £4k speedy, just more desirable.
So Omega's issue is not quality but how to make their products more desirable, and that's down to building a strong brand. Offering large discounts is counter intuitive, and something that will erode a strong brand, so that's not a route they go down.
All brands would rather sell one 20k watch over 10 x £2000 watches, and that's the direction Omega have been heading in the last few years.
I agree. Trying to price like Rolex will alienate the watch enthusiasts who have an informed view of value, as well as simply putting them out of the reach of many who might otherwise have bought one. But at the end of the market where Rolex play they are king, and to the audience of wealthy punters with a large sum they want to drop on a watch, most will think that if Omega and Rolex are similarly priced they might as well get the Rolex and all the intangible stuff that goes with it.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that Rolex have invested decades of effort, and huge sums of money, into building their brand. And they've done so extremely effectively. It's a widespread belief that they are the best, and that there is a special prestige to owning a Rolex. This is what allows them to price as they do. Omega haven't got anything like that, and thinking they can replicate Rolex pricing on the basis "our watches are just as good!" strikes me as...optimistic.
There again, Swatch group just possibly know more about how sell watches than I do, so I may well be utterly wrong.
Whilst I agree with you in principle, that strategy only explains what has happened up until now. Omega have pushed up the value of their brand while the going was good but the tide is turning.
The issue is that if Rolex starts becoming readily available, then Omega’s market shrinks. Will people pay £10k for a snoopy-branded speedmaster if they can get a Daytona? Or £6-7k for a seamaster when a submariner is available at £8k? What if zenith starts offering a chronomaster at 20% off? The speedy sapphire sandwich doesn’t look so proud now.
Yes, I know SOME people will still go for Omega, but fewer than might have done in a more choice-restricted market.
They can hold their line and say no discounts allowed but I don’t think they will. The last few years have been unusual and the natural order of things is to return to the mean. We enjoyed cheap mortgages for a few years, watch brands enjoyed inflated prices. Nothing lasts forever.
Maybe, but I don't think Zenith enters the conversation on the high street, and when Rolex become available at RRP or under a large part of their cachet disappears. Technically and quality wise Omega and Rolex are similar, but people buy into the Rolex hype (myself included) because they're hard to get and retain their value.
Take those points away from Rolex ownership and it doesn't make Omega any less desirable. In the past few years Omega have been pushing as a high-end watchmaker with innovative materials, perpetual calendars, Chime Chrono etc., whereas Rolex turned the GMTc upside down and called it a lefty, and have finally added a sapphire caseback. It's harder than ever to argue that Rolex is the better watchmaker and that's the rub.
My understanding is that Zenith's biggest market is China followed by Chinese tourists elsewhere.
I did a nice Zenith at 30% off at Christmas but ultimately concluded it was just more evidence that it must still be overpriced.
Rolex will keep selling, but I think we’ll get back to the days when grey dealers could source watches at a discount to list price, that’s the way the market seems to be heading. Those who paid a premium over list to own a Rolex will either keep their watch and continue to enjoy it or accept a significant loss if the decide to sell.
Where does this leave Omega? From a quality and technical innovation standpoint, arguably they now eclipse Rolex, but they’re now going almost head to head on list price and that’s a contest they will lose in most instances. In a scenario where most Rolex models can be sourced from ADs on a sensible timeframe, without playing chirades to get on so- called lists, most Omega offerings become almost unsaleable at list price. Given the choice, how many folks would buy an Aqua Terra instead of a Datejust? I wouldn’t, but if the Aqua Terra had 25% off I may be swayed if price was a priority.
I also think Omegas model line- up has lost focus and too many models have become too large and bloated, whilst I don’t doubt their quality I think their quest to bridge the gap with Rolex has left the brand in no- mans land. Ironically, as one who owns a significant collection of Omega’s vintage and early noughties offerings I’ve totally fallen out of love with the brand based on the current Swatch Group incarnation.
And yet when was the last time they launched something genuinely new or different rather than just an evolution or different/LE colour way of an existing model? The only thing I can think of from the last few years is the Ultra Deep, but that might just be a beefed-up Planet Ocean in some eyes. There was a Globemaster with a central tourbillon or similar fun mechanical feat a few years back but that was in the many tens of thousands RRP I think.
The above is what I find interesting from a 'professional spectator' standpoint.
I work in high-tech electronics, and you'd be forgiven for thinking every company knows exactly what they're doing from marketing and positioning perspective. Then the market changes, and it quickly becomes apparent that wasn't the case! (The old Buffet quote if "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked").
And that's what i wonder with watches. Sure, in the market of the last few years it's easy and it's obvious to chase the price rises of the competitor you aspire to be or to beat - when someone can't buy the Rolex, they'll buy the (now higher priced) Omega. But are they prepared for that market to stop? How do high price Speedies sell when you can get a Daytona? Or never mind being able to buy a new Rolex, you can buy a second hand one below list (which they would have to be if new ones are available). How does each company's strategy hold up?
My industry is famous for boom and bust cycles, and we're well used to crazy highs and crazy lows- but the longer the highs go, STILL people completely forget the lows and are absolutely blind-sided by them when they (inevitably) come. Having enjoyed many years of boom, is the industry totally unprepared for different conditions (if they come)
My industry's experience of boom and bust means an oft used phrase is "the cure for low prices is low prices" - we may not like low prices, but market forces compel you to adapt to them, whatever than entails. So too high prices are cured by high prices - the market adapts (perhaps gives up on the product and moves to smartwatches - and again the players will have to adapt to that).
From the outside the brands look very professional and assured, therefore I wonder to what extent they have foreseen such events and accommodated the possibility. I suspect 'not much' - but the industry employs a lot of people and we all love the products they make, so I do hope all works out well and smoothly.
Agreed. Though they only need to do a little.
Start with slimming down their watches.
Then cull the multiples skews of seamaster / speedmaster/ constellation.
Perhaps make a little more of the globemaster
Freeze prices to let inflation catch up so they seem like better value.
Redirect marketing away from its current focus of pretty actors and focus on history, technical achievements
They’ll never beat Rolex but they could blow Tudor/IWC out of the water if they focused.
Last edited by Idontgram; 11th January 2024 at 05:08.
The selling of watches is certainly very slow here on TZ,and possibly will be on other forums too.
Either the after Christmas effect or just the economy generally or a little of both perhaps.
Watches that would have been snapped up pre covid at much higher prices are struggling at substantially lower prices!.
A buyers market hoping to see mad high prices once again......who knows.
Haven`t sold anything for over a year so I`ve no real feel for how the market currently is by comparison. Asking prices for the heavy stuff have certainly fallen and I think that'll continue as sanity slowly starts to prevail.
My experience of selling on TZ is that watches under £1000 sell well provided they're in good condition and the seller has a good reputation. I don`t think the expensive stuff has ever sold well, TZ is a limited market and many people here have more enthusiasm than spare money when push comes to shove and they have the chance to acquire a watch for a few grand. Perhaps that's a generalisation, turn the clock back 12-15 years when £2K bought a nearly new Rolex and maybe things were different, but we can`t avoid the fact that watch prices are sky-high in real terms of affordability compared to years gone by. Recent cost of living rises have affected everyone, there's more demand on many people's money, coupled with the high watch prices it's now less feasible to build a decent collection than previously.
Where's it heading?.......who knows. However, as a watch enthusiast, collector and repairer (in that order of priority) I think I`ve seen the best years of this hobby. In 1994 when I started to get interested the internet was in its infancy, watch collecting was predominantly a hobby for older guys with fuzzy beards buying pocket wristwatches, antiques and collectors fairs were everywhere an they proved a good hunting ground, I spent many happy hours browsing and rubbing shoulders with the old beardies who hunted pocket watches watches. Internet changed all that, coinciding with a resurgence in popularity for mechanical watches the level of interest and activity boomed to produce a very healthy scene in the late 90s/ early noughties. I was part of it, mid-40s with sufficient spare money to go to the antiques fairs with a wad of cash (under a grand) and come back with a watch or two. Nice vintage Omegas could be picked up for £100-£150, sometimes less, getting them serviced was usually no more than £20-£35, with the advent of eBay it became easy to buy and sell provided you didn`t mind the risk, but it was all happening with far more modest sums of money.
Ironically it all started going downhill around the time I got into repairing ca 2011, we've seen crazy price rises, the virtual demise of the antiques fairs, a big drop in the number of shops selling new and used watches, and the restriction on parts supply that's pushed service prices up and forced the demise of many independent repairers. A far less healthy scene thesedays whichever way you look at it.
Maybe I`m just getting old and cynical (bus pass arrived yesterday) but I genuinely believe I`ve seen the best years of this hobby and I don`t have much optimism for its future, certainly not in the format I`ve enjoyed. £5.5K for an Omega SMP, similar money for a basic steel 3 handed Rolex........crazy.
Last edited by walkerwek1958; 11th January 2024 at 11:24.
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