I know this is a political issue, but I'm genuinely interested in what those of you who work in the car industry make of what seems to be a U-turn on the Government's 2030 commitment on electric car sales etc. This looks as though it will be pushed back until 2035. So, let's keep the politics out of it if possible and focus on the industry and what they will make of it.
How do you think the industry will respond? Will they just carry on with their plans as normal? Or will potential investment opportunities be less attractive and will the 'rush' to electric vehicles slow down? What about other options/technologies (hydrogen vehicles?) - will they be given a boost?
I'm just a private customer trying to make wise choices about the right vehicle at the right time for my family (and the climate of course). It is a bit of a minefield at the moment!
In a word: Car manufacturers do not work anymore on a single country’s decisions. They will continue to manufacture ICE vehicles as long as they have a profitable market for them, whether that includes the UK or not. Conversely they will continue to develop their electric range if that’s what other markets demand.
The choice of where you go shouldn’t be based on what happens in 7 years, especially as it will only apply to new cars, if it does.
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
The industry will always try to produce whatever the customer demands, going after market share rather than policy. It's you that's in the driving seat on that decision, and only you can decide what's best for your family.Originally Posted by jpjsavage
What's best for the environment, is most definitely keeping what you already have for as long as possible.
There is no chance this country is anywhere near ready for mass EV adoption.
People want to charge their cars at low overnight rates and conveniently outside their house.
Many people can’t charge at work, and 30% have no driveway.
Adding more motorway chargers is not the answer. Driving 5 miles to your local 7kW charger and waiting several hours is not the answer. Fine for those who have a driveway.
Until they sort out local charging, lamp posts, several charging device on every street and make it cheap (not 50p+ kWh), true mass adoption will not happen.
Having done 35 years in the industry before bailing out not too long ago I am glad I am not trying to pick a direction or predict the tides.
And as a consumer I think it's incredibly difficult to make the right choice you feel like Indiana Jones trying to pick the right chalice.
Betamax > VHS > DVD > Streaming > ???
Diesel > Petrol > Hybrid > Electric > ???
The industry has now fully geared up for the Electric revolution largely driven by Governments pushing the agenda seemingly without listening to the mantra "For every action there is an equal reaction" little consideration for either raw material sourcing for EV's and future disposal or being infrastructure ready for power demands we are clearly ill prepared as a country producing only 11% of electricity via Nuclear whereas France produces over 70%
ULEZ - is a further complicator and not just in Londinium and is fast creeping in and we have signs up around North West of its impending roll out once Burnham makes our minds up.
Sunak's dialling back is a clear indicator that they collectively know the challenge is greater than predicted and hence 'kick the ball into the long grass'.
I have on balance just copped out and bought as our daily a '2018' low mileage '2.0 Petrol' car that's lowish emissions and as over 5 years old not in the scope of the 'expensive car tax" which is a travesty if ever there was one and now also includes EV's going forward.
It's a minefield where picking the wrong 'chalice' could have expensive consequences down the line.
Choose wisely 'Indy'
Last edited by TKH; 20th September 2023 at 09:28.
That is not necessarily true, it depends on just how polluting your current ICE is and how many miles it continues to run for.
An average EV produces 26,000kg of CO2 in its manufacturing process, if your ICE is producing, sat, 250g/km, that’s 400g/mile
So 26,000/0.4. = 65,000 miles
So if your current car does more than another 65,000 miles, switching to an EV now would be better for the environment.
I was in India back in Feb and over there there is a big push and even government incentives to go electric except that everybody over there knows that the local electricity generating boards just simply wouldn’t be able to cope if there was mass adoption.
My house over there for example is fed with what looks like 1.5mm cable. I’ve queried this a number of time only to be told that it is correct! If I want the cable replaced then there are a significant number hoops and dances I’d have to be prepared to do.
So some of the move to electric is simply turning a blind eye and lip service to others!
You forget to factor in the fact that the car you get rid of will probably remain on the road; your calculations are correct if both cars had a 0 impact on the environment other than driving (production/recycling). As it is not the case, I don’t know where the threshold is, or even if there is one that favours the switch; if however the current car doesn’t fulfil your requirements and therefore you NEED to change it, then your 65,000 miles apply in full.
Last edited by Saint-Just; 20th September 2023 at 09:51.
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
The extra 5 yrs will be welcome by the car industry I would have thought regarding planning for the changeover.
2030 I think was optimistic mainly because, folks don't have the facilities for charging, they are expensive, range anxiety, multi storey car parks need to be ready for the extra weight.
To me, it's like heat pumps, not well thought out.
The whole narrative around this is a mess.
The current 2030 ban is for new diesel and petrol vehicles, hybrids are still legislated to be legally for sale until 2035.
Some people still seem to think the ban is somehow all petrol and diesel cars off the roads in 2030…
I also don’t see how delaying the ban for 5 years helps ‘hard pressed families’ who presumably won’t be in the market for a new anything regardless.
Regarding the car manufacturers themselves, as Saint-just said, they aren’t planning their production cycles around the UK, and they won’t be building any ‘UK Specials’ if the ban does move to the right in 2035.
This sort of uncertainty is anything but good for business.
We need to de-couple the idea that it’s solely personal transport that is the key to achieving net-zero, EVs and lower emission vehicles whilst welcome will not do it by themselves.
As for the mention of hydrogen, would you start investing the Billions necessary on the back of a Government that just wants to be popular and seems willing to flip flop on policy on a whim?
You make some bloomin' good points about those marvellous new thingies, we rushed out and bought, sometimes with Govt. encouragement, which then became redundant quickly...Gonna stick with our relatively tiny petrol engine, for as long as possible, not convinced the current EV's might not prove to be a costly fad...What happens when the rare lithium and other metals start running out at the end of the decade, never mind the hugely costly build out of the public/domestic charging req'd...plus the environmental impacts of getting this stuff out the ground, screwing with water tables etc, mostly in countries which already have climates/ environments at or towards the brink...never mind the risks inherent in giving Musk, the Chinese, even more money, power!...I'll say no more on that score!
Last edited by Passenger; 20th September 2023 at 10:26.
No. Ford is my proof.
Basically, those who know they will be ready will object to the 5 years as it will wipe the benefit of being ahead, possibly while penalising them for having made more investments in EV earlier than the competition.
The others will moan. Both sides will continue to produce ICE for all their current markets as long as it remains profitable: it really is that simple! Even if a manufacturer was to take a stand and ditch ICE for good, it will have been a carefully calculated decision and their marketing team will have convinced them it is beneficial in at least the middle term.
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
I would have thought pushing the date back is the last thing the car makers want, they have been massively investing in design, development and production of electric cars, BMW, JLR and Geely have squeezed our government for huge amounts of cash for assembly facilities, their programs are well underway, they can’t stop now.
Last edited by adrianw; 20th September 2023 at 10:17.
All the things you describe there equally apply to oil and gas. What happens when it runs out or gets very expensive again?
What are the environmental impacts of ‘getting it out of the ground’, screwing with water tables and transporting it? Countries aren’t alone in being on the edge climate wise, the whole planet is. What were and are the costs of building out the infrastructure for oil and gas?
As for the risks of handing over even more money and power to questionable regimes in the Middle East and Russia, well, I’ll say no more on that score! 😉
The only green motoring is no motoring at all, perhaps we should start from there and work up?
We need oil to sustain our way of life in so many areas outside of personal transport, it’s far too valuable to burn.
If EV's are the future (I'm still not convinced they are tbh) then at least this gives the infrastructure the chance to catch up and be ready, also gives the general population more of a chance to be able to afford them, as the tech should become cheaper in the future as manufacturers get used to the tech (although company profits may have something to say about that).
The country wont be ready by 2030, wont be ready by 2040 tbh, electric cars are just not feasible for a large % of the population, charging, cost of buying the cars etc.
Yes, it was very simplistic but was only meant as an example that it isn’t necessarily better to keep older cars on the road for as long as possible.
I'm thinking that it wont remain cheaper than fossil fuels to charge your car in the future. Look at what happened when everyone goes over to low use lightbulbs and other ways to use less electricity over the last few years. No-one has saved money because the price of electricity rises...
Bit like the housing market. Government schemes and inducements like deposit and guarantee schemes looked like it would make it cheaper for FTBs, but what actually happened was the builders thought FTBs could now afford a higher price and...hey presto :0(
The country doesn’t have to be ready by 2030, it’s not and never was an overnight switch.
It’s a transition, and hybrids will still be on sale until 2035, assuming manufacturers are making them at that point.
What will make EVs cheaper is setting the stall out for manufacturers to have the confidence to invest the sums required to source raw materials and produce vehicles at scale.
Yesterday the Intercooler (an excellent app/website for anyone who wants to read stories by the journalists who used to write for and edit car magazines in the 1980s-2000s) ran a story by Ben Oliver:
https://www.the-intercooler.com/libr...-ti-manifesto/
There are a few more points to make about the EV changeover. Built-in obsolescency is going to remove a lot of cars from the road in the next few years, especially now cars are full of technology, and cheap Chinese cars will flood the market. That's EV, ICE and hybrid, with the next MG3 likely to be the cheapest supermini money can buy. How the German and French car makers will respond is anyone's guess, but then will the EU and the UK increase taxes on Chinese imports? Who knows. In the next 10 years battery power and range will increase, taxation will have to kick in at some point and the OPEC nations will invest heavily in renewable energy. The charging issue is key, in Ben's story he says 40% of us don't have off-street parking, rising to 60% in urban areas, arguably where EVs make most sense. You'd imagine that smaller, lighter cars that need smaller batteries and use less electricity will become more common as the price of making EVs comes down. Most of the UK car brands either makes big heavy luxury cars (Chinese-owned Lotus, Italian/German-owned Aston Martin, German-owned Bentley and Rolls-Royce and so on) or weird lightweight occasional sportscars (Morgan, Noble, Ariel, Caterham etc) so they'll all be fine.
Me? I'll stick with my 2004 Skoda Fabia on 60k miles. It is currently doing around 45mpg, almost all small local journeys, and eats neither tyres nor brakes. I'm the perfect target for a small EV, and when someone makes one that's affordable I'll probably lease one (somewhere north of 90% of new cars are on finance or leased). Until then it would be vastly uneconomical for me to get an EV. I guess if the Skoda is killed (most likely squashed by a 3-tonne EV SUV) in the next five years I'll have a bit of a decision to make. I'll probably just lease a Dacia Jogger and end up taking most of my son's football team to each match.
"A man of little significance"
I’m convinced that offering grants or incentives for anything just inflates the price, sadly.
I didn’t see the cost of cars jumping by the equivalent of any grant once it was removed, seems like manufacturers were just trousering the grant as extra profit.
Similar with solar panels, and home charge points, and now probably heat pumps.
Oils the wheels I suppose.
But...you haven't included the CO2 for 65,000 miles in the EV? Circa 78000kg.
Also user may only do low miles per year
Just to balance the argument :0)
Aye we make do with just the one vehicle, tiny engine, for the household and walk or cycle whenever possible...and make that one vehicle last , rather than keep buying another new'un, and another new'un every 2 or 3 years...Oh but it's putting more glorious Ev's into circulation, it is, but it just encourages the buggers to continue consuming, convinces them all is well in the world, salves consciences. And where's the UK's ELECTRIC coming from, not onshore windfarms is it, or nuclear...
The whole way of life needs to change not just motor cars. Change it will over the next decade or two, though it'll be reactive not proactive.
Think you’re right. For some reason, politicians don’t understand how the real world works. And that fact explains a lot.
I think the figure is around 30% of home don’t have off street parking, but then many of those won’t be car owners anyway.
In London, 46% of homes don’t own a car of any sort, according to TfL anyway.
Getting a bit of electricity to wherever a vehicle is parked for most of its time shouldn’t be the impossible problem that many think it is.
Again though, we’re being suckered into the idea that net zero all hinges on personal transport emissions, when it’s anything but.
Industry, heating, aviation, heavy transport, agriculture etc etc all have massive changes to make.
Or we could just kick the can down the road, like we always seem to.
How can a zero emission EV produce 78 tonnes of CO2 in 65,000 miles?
Also, it’s total mileage, it doesn’t make a difference whether it’s in one year or one hundred. In fact, lower mileage will probably mean shorter journeys and likely higher emissions per mile.
There’s no need to balance the argument as my initial comment wasn’t an argument, it was a statement of fact.
1-200£ chargers became 7-800£ when there was a £500 government grant available
Because the EV might be zero emission but the Electricity produced isn't!!! :0)
New cars feeding down the ownership chain is exactly how it’s worked for decades. At some point an old polluting, knackered end of life car shuffles off to recycling and the cars that are left are less polluting.
That wouldn’t change even if EVs weren’t a thing, as generally ICE vehicles have got more efficient and less polluting, until everybody wanted an SUV of course.
Good on you for the small car and walking and cycling, but there’s more to a carbon footprint than driving, there’s the amount of flights everybody seems to do for starters, the did we buy and eat, and that we waste. Probably not for this thread, but we won’t do anything different until we’re all personally impacted by which point it might not matter.
Not can you ignore the energy and carbon emissions required in extracting, refining and transporting fossil fuels either.
Apples for apples comparisons required.
It’s was just a statement by the government. We will ban ICE cars by 2030 five years before the rest of Europe, in all honesty it was never going to happen. The infrastructure for EVs is light years away and putting it back five years is sensible so manufactures can enhance technology and we will be ready. The only reason the manufacturers will moan is they will have to wait a further five years to fleece us for overpriced EV cars.
Last edited by hilly10; 20th September 2023 at 11:20.
It makes no difference - the timescales the industry works they are moving to PHEV and EV anyway.
It just makes us look a bad place for investment.
So much misinformation about this, and will only get worse if the dates are changed.
The deadline for banning ICE cars was never 2030, it just brings in a requirement for cars to be at least hybrid by then. I don’t see any circumstances where a hybrid would not be a suitable vehicle, so why are people making such a big deal of it?
I can see I situation whereby manufacturers withdraw from the right-hand drive markets for ICE vehicles ahead of any deadlines though as the market shrinks and it is no longer cost effective to produce RHD versions.
Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
I note the 2030 date is being referred to, but not the 2035 one - 2030 was the end of purely petrol/diesel cars, 2035 the end of hybrids.
Currently 15% of the UK market is pure electric, 37% is hybrid, 47% is trad petrol/diesel. It doesn't take that much to hybridise a petrol or diesel model, and pretty much all new cars see some form of hybrid system being introduced as standard, so they were going to be sold to 2035 anyway.
If the announcement today is that 2030 goes but the end-date of 2035 for hybrids remains, it'll mean, in reality, very little.
Companies small and large like know where they stand so that they can plan ahead...With our frequent flip flop commitment to policies, I foresee more moving abroad.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-b1108206.html
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
This ^^^^ all day long.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
With the grants coming from central government via Taxation or from the energy companies which just add it on to bills, Jo public just runs out of money especially the ones at the bottom of the pile that buy the 15 year old cars to survive.
Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
Nor would I want to. I'm definately up for reducing carbon emissions but just dont see EVs as the answer. A far better public transport system would be a very good start!!
I was told from someone in the industry that hybrids made little difference and were a "waste of time and money" (not my words as I have no experience with them)
EVs have not ever been ‘the answer’, on there own, but they’ve become the hare for dog whistle politics rather than a more sustainable/less damaging means of private transport.
I’m with you on the public transport, around here in rural Leics/Lincs it’s very poor, and we’re not alone.
i'd agree on hybrids. I drive a 2023 2L diesel non-hybrid SUV, i average mid 50's mpg over the average week. While it was in the body shop the other week after a minor fender bender, i was given a 1.6L petrol hybrid and i only got 35mpg on the same mix of driving. With my car, you can take your foot off the gas and it will coast along and keep it's speed, slowing very little. If i did the same in the hybrid you could really feel the effect of the 'dynamo' for want of a better word, sapping the momentum to charge the battery, it felt like my foot was on the brake, so i had to use the accelerator sooner and more. That combined with the extra weight of batteries, motors etc, and it gives rubbish mpg
Jacob Rees-Mogg, what an arsehole!
Government chop and change on a whim and expect everyone else to just suck it up.
They don’t need to stop- just carry on and if (and it’s a big if) EV’s are the future of motoring then they are in no worse position, they are just ready five years early.
Just like full EV's, Hybrids are evolving. It won't be long before you'll see 100 mile plus range from a Hybrid on e-mode becoming the norm. Which means most people will use it as an EV, with the safety net of an ICE as and when.
I can recall having Touareg Hybrid in around 2012. My predecessor had ordered it (and another one) that we simply could not sell...so we registered it and it became my Company Car. I'd come from a 3.0TDi Touareg so this 3.0TSi Supercharged Petrol thing, with a battery giving me EV and Coasting was a bit of a step into the unknown. The reality, back then, was a 1.7 kWh battery that offered pretty much no range - sub two miles if my memory is correct. It also would not go much over 30 mph before firing up that thirsty V6 Petrol so my overall MPG was pretty painful, think 20-22 or so. I was really rather pleased when it sold and I returned to the TDi.
Fast forward to today. There are plenty more efficient Hybrids out there than my current car, but I can still relate to the change in Technology. The Touareg R is a hybrid, this time with a 2.9 Petrol Turbo. Battery size is 8 and a bit times the size of the old one. Battery power is 3 and a bit times the size. Real time range is 24-25 miles - which means I can generally go through a month without visiting the fuel station if I top up the battery every other day. It will also happily cruise at motorway speeds in full e-mode. Longer journeys, yes, the battery depletes, but it will self-charge and move into e-mode when it can. As I say, I doubt it will win any prizes for being the most efficient way to get from A-B, but I did wait 2 years to get it!
Americans not sold on EVs apparently.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technolo...reased-revenue
or Germany.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2023...r-evs-plunges/
the second article is worth reading for the staggering idiocy and misinformation in the comments section
hybrids are great in theory, i know someone with the new x5 50e and he gets 100km on a charge at the moment but its still the issue of having the running cost downsides of an ICE car alongside your battery. My neighbour has a RR P400e thingy and is forever having engine problems.
Fried of mine had a new P400, got rid of it after six months, always broken, went back to a Lexus
Whilst being ready early has some merit I think a key problem from a manufacturer perspective is the customer demand. If the public think that the deadline will keep being pushed back or the landscape keeps changing they will be less inclined to make the switch to electric vehicles and will either keep the car they have or buy another ICE car so the demand for electric vehicles will not be what the manufacturers are forecasting.
Manufacturers are already investing in new factories, developing new electric vehicles etc and they need customer demand because as an OEM you need your factory to be building a certain number of cars per day to be efficient, you can't just suddenly make a lot less. Most manufacturers are able to switch a small amount of volume to other markets in the short term but it is not that easy to do for various reasons.
So if your factory has to churn out cars everyday then you can't just park them up in a field, you need to sell them to the dealers quickly so they are not on your balance sheet and so you can hit the sales targets, contribution margin etc you have promised your shareholders.
If there is no demand from the public then you have to push the cars into the market which means spending more on marketing, discounts and incentives and support for dealers and customers so people will buy them. So then your cost of selling the car goes up a lot which really messes up the business case and has a knock on impact on your share price.
So, in my humble opinion, the car companies would have preferred the UK not to have made the commitment to end ICE sales in 2030 in the first place, however once the decision was made and now they have based all their planning/investments around that decision they would prefer them to stick to it.
Thought for quite some time that Ford would have an uphill, rocky road flogging electric pick up trucks in the US.
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