Corona property prices

[uwtc]

My view FWIW is that it will take a deep recession and many job losses and forced selling to drive a major correction in the property market. Whilst people still have jobs and pay their mortgage (mortaged properties only make up about 25% of the residential market) transaction volume may decline as people delay remortgaging but this in turn will hold up prices as supply is tight.

[noTAGlove]

Whatever you view on house prices going forward, I was comparing them in London when I graduated and moved darn sarf.

My first salary in 1991 was £14.5k per annum. Back then with 4x my salary plus a large £20k deposit I could have comfortably bought a 2-bed terrace in Wimbledon for £80k.

Recent similar graduates are now starting on £35k, and with a similar 4x income plus a large £50k deposit (pro-rated with inflation), they have the equivalent of £190k. Except those same terraces in Wimbledon are a cool £1 million pounds.

Just puts the madness into perspective especially in London.

Although I graduated in 1991 and interest rates were higher, by end of 1993 interest rates were equivalent of today (~5%+).

[Passenger]

Whether taken with a pinch of salt...Nationwide record a surprise price rise of O.9 per cent in October

https://www.theguardian.com/business...er-index-shows

[noTAGlove]

Watching those smug barstards on Location, Location, Location tonight. About to put my foot through the effing telly.

Nunn and Benoit have £700k to spend in the world’s most expensively commuter town of Maidenhead. AI told them to go there. Fcuk off. Are they even English, lol.

What happened to the real world and Sandra and Gary from Skelmersdale/Grimsby/Middlesborough trying to move out of their one bed corpie house because they have 2 kids and they all sharing one room.

Also FTBs buying a sh1t box in the middle of nowhere for a quarter of a mill.

C4 aspirational bollox.

[guli]

Watching those smug barstards on Location, Location, Location tonight. About to put my foot through the effing telly.

Nunn and Benoit have £700k to spend in the world’s most expensively commuter town of Maidenhead. AI told them to go there. Fcuk off. Are they even English, lol.

What happened to the real world and Sandra and Gary from Skelmersdale/Grimsby/Middlesborough trying to move out of their one bed corpie house because they have 2 kids and they all sharing one room.

Also FTBs buying a sh1t box in the middle of nowhere for a quarter of a mill.

C4 aspirational bollox.

This is so depressing :(

[Michael 38]

Watching those smug barstards on Location, Location, Location tonight. About to put my foot through the effing telly.

Nunn and Benoit have £700k to spend in the world’s most expensively commuter town of Maidenhead. AI told them to go there. Fcuk off. Are they even English, lol.

What happened to the real world and Sandra and Gary from Skelmersdale/Grimsby/Middlesborough trying to move out of their one bed corpie house because they have 2 kids and they all sharing one room.

Also FTBs buying a sh1t box in the middle of nowhere for a quarter of a mill.

C4 aspirational bollox.

property programmes are always full of smug bell ends, location location location has always been full of 27 year old couples from the south east with 750k to spend on their first house how annoying it must be for people who can’t afford their rent due to the Tory’s scummery is unreal

[Passenger]

Imagine being one of the 4 million destitute in the UK...surrounded by all that advertising transmitting the same relentless message... be a good little consumer and be happy..

[Montello]

Watching those smug barstards on Location, Location, Location tonight. About to put my foot through the effing telly.

Nunn and Benoit have £700k to spend in the world’s most expensively commuter town of Maidenhead. AI told them to go there. Fcuk off. Are they even English, lol.

What happened to the real world and Sandra and Gary from Skelmersdale/Grimsby/Middlesborough trying to move out of their one bed corpie house because they have 2 kids and they all sharing one room.

Also FTBs buying a sh1t box in the middle of nowhere for a quarter of a mill.

C4 aspirational bollox.

It’s what everyone voted for ….

As I’ve said numerous times on this topic nothing will change without a major house building programme on a massive scale that will have to be state funded. Fiddling around with tax may nudge the needle but nothing more.

[Ares]

W Are they even English, lol.

Not sure what that has to do with anything. Go casual racism?

[noTAGlove]

Not sure what that has to do with anything. Go casual racism?

If you don’t frequent the BP, you won’t understand the running joke.

[gunner]

"House prices rise again as mortgage rates ease"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67645919

[dougair]

"House prices rise again as mortgage rates ease"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67645919

No crash yet then?

[Montello]

No crash yet then?

Most recent data. Still waiting to see this graph hitting -30 as heavily predicted here.

[Ruggertech]

No crash yet then?

When covid hit I very wrongly thought a crash was inevitable then. I'm thinking we won't see an actual crash now either, just an erosion of value as inflation outstrips house price rises.

[Dave+63]

I really can’t see a crash happening, demand still outstrips supply by an ever increasing margin. With nett inward migration of over 750,000 people last year alone, that probably equates to around 250,000 more homes required, without considering the current shortages of the increasing requirements from those already here.

[noTAGlove]

Still very early days. Took 6 years from the peak in 1989 to the nadir of 1995. We are only 12 and a bit months in.

Inflation playing a great role in keeping nominal values firmer, while real values tanking. Now you know why the BoE has not tried very hard.

[gunner]

Still very early days. Took 6 years from the peak in 1989 to the nadir of 1995. We are only 12 and a bit months in.

Inflation playing a great role in keeping nominal values firmer, while real values tanking. Now you know why the BoE has not tried very hard.

So are you selling up and renting?

[Passenger]

When covid hit I very wrongly thought a crash was inevitable then. I'm thinking we won't see an actual crash now either, just an erosion of value as inflation outstrips house price rises.

The great stamp duty wheeze was deployed as a life line/support.

[Ruggertech]

The great stamp duty wheeze was deployed as a life line/support.

Yes, didn't see that one coming. People paying more for houses than they would have been before with stamp duty!

[Passenger]

Yes, didn't see that one coming. People paying more for houses than they would have been before with stamp duty!

Aye the powers that be, really juiced the market with that one.

[Montello]

Aye the powers that be, really juiced the market with that one.

Every time politicians mess about with the market it almost always ends up adding petrol to the fire.

[Montello]

Here is a data point for you all ...

I have been looking at building 4 flats (1 & 2 beds) by extending an existing property.

I have been working on it for a year as it is slow going with architects and builders etc ...

Today I have finally decided to scrap the project so that is 4 less flats that would add to the market and a big chunk of cash not going into the local economy.

Basically the increased cost of materials and labour makes the project fundamentally unprofitable, the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) is also significant.

Both builders that had quoted for the project when I have informed them of the decision reported back that they had had similar responses from other clients over recent months / quoting cycles.

Given we need more property in the country it doesn't bode well for increased stock and lowering property values if people are unable to build new dwellings without losing loads of money ... the only people who can do that are governments.

[mr noble]

Did the house you’re giving to charity sell in the end? Or is that saga still ongoing?

[Mj2k]

So are you selling up and renting?

Would be logical based on his view, but totally mental if you think his forecast is simply a pessimistic wet dream.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[beechcustom]

5yr uk bond yields closed below 4%. Just sayin'.

[Montello]

Did the house you’re giving to charity sell in the end? Or is that saga still ongoing?

Hopefully will exchange in the next few weeks. To be clear it’s my aunt giving it to charity in her will, I’m just doing the executor role.

[noTAGlove]

Hopefully will exchange in the next few weeks. To be clear it’s my aunt giving it to charity in her will, I’m just doing the executor role.

I bet you are glad of that.

I think you reduced, or the charities agreed that you reduce the price a little, on a couple of occasions.

Was the offer for the house good in the end?

[Montello]

I bet you are glad of that.

I think you reduced, or the charities agreed that you reduce the price a little, on a couple of occasions.

Was the offer for the house good in the end?

The probate valuation was £475k by the surveyor in September 2022. It is selling at £395k now.

There were higher offers that didn’t work due to chains failing / mortgage offers expiration etc. It’s been a PITA as the charities have been hard work over price reductions. I see them in a new, unfavourable, light now.

[ryanb741]

The FED signalled 3 Interest rate cuts next year, institutional investors pricing in 6 cuts so a 1.5% drop. ECB expecting to cut 150 basis points next year and BOE between 100 and 125 basis points. Those cuts expected to continue into 2025 as well.

Hold onto your hats.

#rinseandrepeat

[Time Cat]

I m not sure if this effects the UK housing market, but construction companies are obliged to document every piece of material used in construction as well as have it assessed the impact of such use on the environment as per 1 January. These obligations will make construction much more expensive and the building proces will take much more time. People in construction dread these new regulations which are part of EU regulations. Prices of housing will go even more through the roof in NL…

[Montello]

I m not sure if this effects the UK housing market, but construction companies are obliged to document every piece of material used in construction as well as have it assessed the impact of such use on the environment as per 1 January. These obligations will make construction much more expensive and the building proces will take much more time. People in construction dread these new regulations which are part of EU regulations. Prices of housing will go even more through the roof in NL…

As per my post above, it is a struggle to build now and make a profit. That means only one thing.

[noTAGlove]

and BOE between 100 and 125 basis points.

3hours later

Pound jumps as Bank of England warns no interest rate cuts coming soon - latest updates

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-bank-england/

Ryan - instead of continually predicting lower interest rates month after months for 18 months now, maybe plan for higher rates for longer.

[dougair]

No different from constantly predicting a crash I suppose. Of course the BOE is going to say they’re not going to cut anytime soon. My guess would be we’ll end 2024 at 4.5%…let’s see.

[mr noble]

The BoE will cut the day after the Fed does.

Its no coincidence that our interest rate decision dates are always the day after the Fed’s.

Bailey = Puppet on strings.

[ryanb741]

No different from constantly predicting a crash I suppose. Of course the BOE is going to say they’re not going to cut anytime soon. My guess would be we’ll end 2024 at 4.5%…let’s see.

Trading Economics reckons 4.75% so you are pretty close with what they think

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/forecast

[Estoril-5]

Think the market has slowed down, seeing some properties come on with a more reasonable price, still high but not as ridiculous as previously. Also seeing some reductions which is nice - a way to go however.

Interest rates where they are at present means its still a no go for me at the moment. I do wonder where we will be in 12 months time.

[JonRA]

Think the market has slowed down, seeing some properties come on with a more reasonable price, still high but not as ridiculous as previously. Also seeing some reductions which is nice - a way to go however.

Interest rates where they are at present means its still a no go for me at the moment. I do wonder where we will be in 12 months time.

Knight Frank predict a 3% rise this year - but I'll believe that when I see it.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...-leading-agent

[MrSmith]

Seems a bit odd at the moment in that the flats like ours have started to creep up again and have gone past pre Tory Trussenomic meltdown prices.
Ones that need lots of work and/or low down and facing the wrong way so no views/sunlight are still a bit harder to shift and there have been a few reductions, most of these are landlords getting out as their years profits have been wiped out by a recent round of lift replacement and exterior once a decade painting section 20’s. Anything decent has gone around asking price and not been on the market for very long. no idea if that’s The Modern House effect as the top end ones are often advertised on there for a slight premium.

[Estoril-5]

Figures show we entered a recession so will this be reflected in asking prices going forward. Time will tell!

[redmonaco]

If the government go ahead with their FTB 99% mortgage guarantee that will stoke prices again. They really have no idea...

[Montello]

If the government go ahead with their FTB 99% mortgage guarantee that will stoke prices again. They really have no idea...

Every time the government mess about in the property space they create a price increase… if they really want to help people become home owners they need to incentivise building on a huge scale. It’s not hard to work out but not easy to finance.

[Passenger]

Every time the government mess about in the property space they create a price increase… if they really want to help people become home owners they need to incentivise building on a huge scale. It’s not hard to work out but not easy to finance.

re price increase/ juicing the market...every, single, time, you can set your watch by them...property...old faithful. Though personally we've decided to 'rebalance' somewhat more towards the US, just a feeling the UK's macroeconomic picture will remain in the doldrums plausibly for some time.

[wileeeeeey]

If the government go ahead with their FTB 99% mortgage guarantee that will stoke prices again. They really have no idea...

I’d say that’s the plan.

[Passenger]

I’d say that’s the plan.

Bet on it, why on earth stop deforming prices/the market now

[Estoril-5]

Seeing quite a few reductions on Rightmove today (most properties were listed in 2023). I guess were on the doorstep of March, generally viewings and sales pick up in spring, its definitely a buyers market in my view.

[Thewatchbloke]

I've had my dad's bungalow on the market for 3 months with only 2 viewings to date with another tomorrow so I'd say the market is pretty flat. The bungalow is in an expensive area, it's in excellent decorative order (albeit a bit dated now), has a beautiful garden and has had a lot of money spent over the last 5 years including new flat roofs, new heating system, a rewire and new front door to name a few. A couple of years ago it would have sold instantly for probably £50k over the price we're asking for it now, it's definitely a slow, buyers market at the moment.

[uwtc]

Bungalow's are quite a specific market, not sure we can infer too much a bout the wider market from that. The data I've read suggests sales are starting to pick up over the past few months with prices very modestly ticking up on average.

[Montello]

Bungalow's are quite a specific market, not sure we can infer too much a bout the wider market from that. .

I had a lot of trouble selling my aunts bungalow, it was a nice property in a good seaside area ... but it was only really of interest to a small demographic. Thankfully sold now, took over a year.

[noTAGlove]

Looks like the short term holiday lets are going to be taxed the same way as conventional BTL.

I can see the holiday flats and houses being unloaded as many will not make economic sense to hold. No capital growth and now no yield either.

https://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/...rce=newsticker

[Montello]

Looks like the short term holiday lets are going to be taxed the same way as conventional BTL.

I can see the holiday flats and houses being unloaded as many will not make economic sense to hold. No capital growth and now no yield either.

https://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/...rce=newsticker

Pretty small segment of the market, Hunt won’t raise much revenue there … probably will end up damaging tourism resulting in a net loss of taxable activity.

Looks desperate…