All kicking off on the Facebook Rolex sales forum..

[tleefox]

Dragging this back up again, but looking like prices on the grey market are starting to tumble.

I was offered a 2019 Batman at £10,500 yesterday, which is exactly what I'm in the market for but have set my limit at £9k.

[RustyBin5]

Dragging this back up again, but looking like prices on the grey market are starting to tumble.

I was offered a 2019 Batman at £10,500 yesterday, which is exactly what I'm in the market for but have set my limit at £9k.

Was it used? Trade or private sale?

[tleefox]

Was it used? Trade or private sale?

Card dated 2019, trade - grey market seller with at least 6 of the same model on their books.

[higham5]

Years ago I was a member of the local history/ nostalgia Facebook group for my local area , a really informative helpful with regular updates.

That group degenerated into a bit of bitching and back stabbing , the final straw for me was when someone asked if anyone knew who the cheapest pizza delivery service was in our area.

That was the day I disengaged from Facebook, cleared all my details off it , never to return.

I 100% endorse this view, we have recently moved to a new area and interested to find out “ whats on” I joined the local “ community “ facebook page.

Within days I was seeing requests such as “ what time is the first bus to xxxx tomorrow “ even comments such as “ did the 16:02 bus to yyy turn up today”

On regaling my wife with this amoeba like comments my wife replied, they dont want to know anything about “ buses” they just want to reach out and have contact!

On balance I found this rather sad, however it wasn't for me so I left the group. Maybe the Rolex Facebook group is full of individuals who have entered the market by paying a premium and just want the reassurance they have done the right thing.

[Kingstepper]

You’re wife is right, it’s rather like TZ

[learningtofly]

What - a local FB group posting about pizza, FFS??? I'd have left FB for good too after that, the b*stards

[mjc1216]

What - a local FB group posting about pizza, FFS??? I'd have left FB for good too after that, the b*stards

Must have started that after reading the one on here...

https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...hread-show-off

[verv]

The dealers are currently seeing their profits disappearing before them as the market currently stagnates with the glut of watches sitting in display cases not just in the UK but around the World and the potentially impending collapse of the overpriced steel sports sector which has propped them up handsomely.

[redsox78]

Lack of punctuation does that :)

But the point might not be wrong. Surely some watches are part of a bubble?

[verv]

Its just the picture that came to mind, no snark intended.
I don't read facebook Rolex stuff so I have no idea whats blowing up who's skirts.

[Rolthai32]

I left months ago to many bell ends and liars

[Happyal]

Facebook drama seems of died down for now. Dealers still being dealers, and trying to get the most out of their customers, but the drama has almost gone.

[Corporalsparrow]

I took myself off Facebook about six years ago , never missed it once.

How on eartth are you going the hear about the latest Coronavirus cure?

[Flasher]

Dragging this back up again, but looking like prices on the grey market are starting to tumble.

I was offered a 2019 Batman at £10,500 yesterday, which is exactly what I'm in the market for but have set my limit at £9k.

Many secondary dealers/sellers are keeping prices firm in the front window but deals are being completed at reduced prices by those sellers to get a sale. Batman and Batgirls were already falling in price at the end of last year due to the glut of them within the Secondary market and this price falling has only continued, the Daytona are now going Sub 20k with again the number of these on the Secondary market and lack of demand at the inflated prices but this will always carry a premium at some price point.

What I have witnessed on the Sales pages and Secondary dealers is the number of pieces for sale has increased but buyers less so, with sellers bumping sales posts daily hoping to get a hit. The plummeting prices in the US and Far East secondary market for not just the hype pieces probably gives a fair indication on were prices are going not just there but around the World.

The watch market like any other market is fuelled by confidence, that confidence which created the watch price bubble we have seen over the last three/four years, if the confidence leaves then so dies the demand and no matter how much anyone talks up a market, demand drives prices up or down not talk.

[RAJEN]

Many secondary dealers/sellers are keeping prices firm in the front window but deals are being completed at reduced prices by those sellers to get a sale. Batman and Batgirls were already falling in price at the end of last year due to the glut of them within the Secondary market and this price falling has only continued, the Daytona are now going Sub 20k with again the number of these on the Secondary market and lack of demand at the inflated prices but this will always carry a premium at some price point.

What I have witnessed on the Sales pages and Secondary dealers is the number of pieces for sale has increased but buyers less so, with sellers bumping sales posts daily hoping to get a hit. The plummeting prices in the US and Far East secondary market for not just the hype pieces probably gives a fair indication on were prices are going not just there but around the World.

The watch market like any other market is fuelled by confidence, that confidence which created the watch price bubble we have seen over the last three/four years, if the confidence leaves then so dies the demand and no matter how much anyone talks up a market, demand drives prices up or down not talk.

News ‘flash’

[tleefox]

What I have witnessed on the Sales pages and Secondary dealers is the number of pieces for sale has increased but buyers less so, with sellers bumping sales posts daily hoping to get a hit. The plummeting prices in the US and Far East secondary market for not just the hype pieces probably gives a fair indication on were prices are going not just there but around the World.

Exactly this and the dealer I spoke to admitted as such. He intimated that the Kermits were proving particularly difficult to shift due to being a bit more "niche."

I'm willing to sit it out a while yet and see what happens.

[Flasher]

News ‘flash’

Realise you are in lockdown but really no excuse not to keep up with the news😁. It already happened but to help you out I have listed a couple of recent stories just for you: Bike sales have spiked. The Bundesliga restarts 16 May and Tom Cruise and NASA are working together on his new movie.

Think that is you caught up. Oh, nearly forgot and Rolex secondary prices are falling.

[s1wnw]

I would love to see the price of Kermit Subs falling, that is my absolute grail of a watch.

[Wallasey Runner]

To be fair dealers asking £15k to £20k or even more for Kermits was never going to have people queuing around the blocks, so any recent reductions or difficulties in selling is probably just the dealers waking up and smelling the coffee rather than any particular trend.

[ollipekka]

Rolex facebook groups taught me that steroid monster pitbull, wearable gold and Porsche 911s (or at least keys) go well with steel sports watch.

[redsox78]

Rolex facebook groups taught me that steroid monster pitbull, wearable gold and Porsche 911s (or at least keys) go well with steel sports watch.

😂

[tleefox]

Rolex facebook groups taught me that steroid monster pitbull, wearable gold and Porsche 911s (or at least keys) go well with steel sports watch.

And full sleeve tattoos

[Zolawinston]

And full sleeve tattoos

And huge manicured beards.....

[IAmATeaf]

Curiosity got the better of me and I had a look at FB marketplace and all I saw were ad after as for fakes, does FB not have any rules?

[learningtofly]

Many secondary dealers/sellers are keeping prices firm in the front window but deals are being completed at reduced prices by those sellers to get a sale. Batman and Batgirls were already falling in price at the end of last year due to the glut of them within the Secondary market and this price falling has only continued, the Daytona are now going Sub 20k with again the number of these on the Secondary market and lack of demand at the inflated prices but this will always carry a premium at some price point.

What I have witnessed on the Sales pages and Secondary dealers is the number of pieces for sale has increased but buyers less so, with sellers bumping sales posts daily hoping to get a hit. The plummeting prices in the US and Far East secondary market for not just the hype pieces probably gives a fair indication on were prices are going not just there but around the World.

The watch market like any other market is fuelled by confidence, that confidence which created the watch price bubble we have seen over the last three/four years, if the confidence leaves then so dies the demand and no matter how much anyone talks up a market, demand drives prices up or down not talk.

Mate, you need to get out more (seriously)

[Griswold]

There are obviously a lot of worried dealers out there scared that they have overpayed for their stock. Personally I don’t think they need to worry too much when it comes to Rolex. Rolex have masterminded this whole situation to build up the illusion of exclusivity and they won’t let it go. Waiting lists, qualifying purchases, sticker removal, retaining warranty cards, all of the things that buyers have blamed AD’s for, have all been instigated by Rolex themselves. If they see that demand has dropped 20% after lockdown ends they will just cut production levels to compensate. They will sacrifice short term sales in order to keep the waiting lists going and maintain the image of a steel sports Rolex as a hard to get exclusive item. I don’t see Hulks or Daytonas sitting in AD windows anytime soon. Dealers just need to hold on a little longer for their profits.

You really think so? A company that hasn't been producing watches now for what, nie on two months already and with no other income stream, will cut production when they finally go back to work? Really? With no income in that time, and who knows how long their lockdown will last, will they really hold back production to limit their income further just to retain the desirability of a piece of wrist jewellery that many affected by CV-19 will no longer prioritise or be able to afford?

More likely IMO they will ramp up production to bring in much needed revenue from a dwindling market. Heck, they may even reduce prices if their pieces don't sell - though I very much doubt that unless times become exceptionally hard, but you never can tell.

[s1wnw]

I think you may find that they do not try to increase output too much. They seemed to have managed to create such an image that people see them as Veblen goods


Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

[IAmATeaf]

Personally I think they’ll carry on as before, after all they seem to have shipped out quite a few judging by the calls that people are getting which will cover them for 2-3 months.

Edit I’m replying to the last few replies re production and output by Rolex.

[SimonK]

Yeah but production at the factory has stopped, so when all the existing stock is exhausted it'll be at least 12 months before supplies start to flow again, cos as everyone knows 'it takes a year to make a Rolex', the advertising says so.

[petay993]

How will we cope?

[Indio]

I expect Rolex will have a fair supply of watches that they will have manufactured, but held back to manage supply in the market. Halting manufacture will therefore probably not have as immediate an impact on cash flows as they gradually release them into the market. They are past masters at controlling supply and navigating difficult markets. Whether or not they continue to command the premiums they have is another matter.

[Griswold]

I expect Rolex will have a fair supply of watches that they will have manufactured, but held back to manage supply in the market. Halting manufacture will therefore probably not have as immediate an impact on cash flows as they gradually release them into the market. They are past masters at controlling supply and navigating difficult markets. Whether or not they continue to command the premiums they have is another matter.

Let me get this straight.... You're saying that Rolex, who haven't been selling watches for two months now, (and it will maybe be longer depending on how long they remain closed in Switzerland), with no income for that period can afford to halt manufacture when their lockdown ends because you 'think' they have a ready supply already assembled? So they lay off their manufacturing employees, (who haven't been working for all that time anyway), until Rolex feel the time is right to make more watches? And you think their employees will be happy with this? And that they will return to work when Rolex deem it right that they should?

Unless, of course, their watches are made largely by robots. But then that would really destroy the dream....

[Der Amf]

You're saying that Rolex, who haven't been selling watches for two months now, (and it will maybe be longer depending on how long they remain closed in Switzerland), with no income for that period can afford to halt manufacture when their lockdown ends because you 'think' they have a ready supply already assembled? So they lay off their manufacturing employees, (who haven't been working for all that time anyway), until Rolex feel the time is right to make more watches? And you think their employees will be happy with this? And that they will return to work when Rolex deem it right that they should?

What is your source that Rolex intend to lay off their work force? I read that Rolex intend to pay their workforce to do nothing for as long as is necessary, but unfortunately I can't find the article I read that in and so can't quote it (Knowing me, it'll be on watchesbysjx)

[Griswold]

What is your source that Rolex intend to lay off their work force? I read that Rolex intend to pay their workforce to do nothing for as long as is necessary, but unfortunately I can't find the article I read that in and so can't quote it (Knowing me, it'll be on watchesbysjx)

I didn't say they were. I suggested that that would be a possibility, (likelyhood), based on the assumptions of the previous poster, which I quoted.

It may be that Rolex will indeed pay their employees their full wages for as long as necessary, and that would be a noble gesture indeed. However, it would be a very strange business model for a company that is a registered charity in Switzerland, and would require considerable reserves to do so. This latter, if true, would bring into question its charitable status; it would also be be a very clear indication that their products are seriously overpriced, neither of which would be good for their reputation IMO.

[Der Amf]

Sorry, I didn't realise you were just entertaining yourself with total guesswork. As you were. I'll let someone else explain what the SA in Rolex SA means.

[Indio]

As we know Rolex S.A. is owned by a trust structure and the detail of their financial performance is simply not available. However, the entity the group uses for sale of its products in the UK is 'The Rolex Watch Company Limited'. As you are no doubt aware, all UK companies are required to file their accounts at companies house - including The Rolex Watch Company (they have been in the UK since 1916 I understand). I expect the UK business is a small portion of the global business empire, but I thought the following numbers from the FYE 31st December 2018 were interesting:

Turnover: c. £367,000,000
Net Profit: c. £45,000,000
Cash at Bank:£59,000,000
Net Worth: £110,000,000
Repair materials : £7,500,000
Finished goods for resale: £17,500,000

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/c...filing-history

They also upstreamed a £35,000,000 dividend in 2018

Of course this represents a small part of the global business (just imagine the US, China, Japan, etc), but my sense is that Rolex do have significant cash reserves to ride the storm. For how long is anybody's guess, but they had enough last year to leave a spare £59,000,000 cash in their UK distribution business - (perhaps because they don't need it?). They clearly do have surplus stock. At £8,000 per watch that would be over 2,000 watches (just in the UK). I imagine 2019 was an even better year given the price rises and global demand.

There is no mention of robot use in the attached copy of their UK audited financials.

I cannot imagine Rolex will want to do anything to damage their brand including increase production, lay off their skilled workers, reduce prices, etc. - because it is the brand they are ultimately selling.

Let me get this straight.... You're saying that Rolex, who haven't been selling watches for two months now, (and it will maybe be longer depending on how long they remain closed in Switzerland), with no income for that period can afford to halt manufacture when their lockdown ends because you 'think' they have a ready supply already assembled? So they lay off their manufacturing employees, (who haven't been working for all that time anyway), until Rolex feel the time is right to make more watches? And you think their employees will be happy with this? And that they will return to work when Rolex deem it right that they should?

Unless, of course, their watches are made largely by robots. But then that would really destroy the dream....

[Indio]

It would be good to understand the basis for your line of questioning?

I didn't say they were. I suggested that that would be a possibility, (likelyhood), based on the assumptions of the previous poster, which I quoted.

[Griswold]

Sorry, I didn't realise you were just entertaining yourself with total guesswork. As you were. I'll let someone else explain what the SA in Rolex SA means.

You don't like my guesswork, (reasoning actually, but call it what you will), yet you make no comment on Indio's - so I guess you must believe his guess, (which his actually is), is true. As you were.