Reply With QuoteYour two years too late
Okay so I may have too much time on my hands starting a thread with Rolex and Investment in the title so I predict the usual "boring been done before" posts, but in this climate I feel its relative to weigh up both scenarios.
I was looking into investing in a long term fund and was surprised at the gains and loses compared to Rolex prices which I also keep an eye on, plus its a bit of fun to look back and see how things have moved over the last 5 years.
Below are real life examples of watches sold here on SC (hopefully sellers dont mind me linking their old ads). The fund (Vanguard LifeStrategy 100% Equity fund) is based on investing £10k in March 2015, as can be seen from the graph the fund grew well over the last 5 years to just under £16k until the last few months, with CV hitting the markets its dropped to £13K currently and heading south.
https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/i...fund_fund_link
Below are two Rolex 1665 Seadweller's, first one is a full set the second is a rail dial, both were posted for sale here at £10k'ish around the same time you could have invested £10k into the Vanguard fund in 2015.
Now Chrono24 has some 1665's with prices all over the place as expected but I think its fair to say the below watches are now £20k+, saying that, most expect material assets to lose money over this tumultuous period like investment funds but I think the 1665 will hold better value than the Vanguard fund.
https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...665+Seadweller
https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...665+Seadweller
As a bit of fun you could have also had this Red 1680 Sub for £6995, now probabley £25k- £30k
https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...highlight=1680
So, in times of austerity gold was the main port, is Rolex the new gold??
Last edited by murkeywaters; 21st April 2020 at 12:14.
Your two years too late
The watches in your post are beauty’s. If they come back down in price I may have to buy one!
I’m not sure how useful it is to look back at luxury goods once the price has already risen, focusing on models that have risen the most. You could pick all sorts of things that beat the markets (classic cars, art, wine, bitcoin, lego) if you compare the market with when you are looking at historical data.
Very easy to pick the winner of the 3.30 at Ascot at 3.45.. not quite as easy at 3.15..
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I love that!Originally Posted by SteveM112
What a great answer, and so very true.
Your right on that, seems Rolex is the Red Rum and investment funds are the donkey at the back!
Add in the fact that you can enjoy the watch over this 5 year time period and that’s like dividends on top..
Investment funds are obviously going to suffer until the economy improves, but it could be argued that the depressed values are a good buying opportunity. I always invest for income and look to re-invest the income myself, investing purely for growth is far more risky but that's what seems to be uppermost in many people's minds. Watches are no good in this scenario, they don't produce an income stream.
In my view watch prices are bound to suffer, and it's the heavy stuff that'll suffer most. Both vintage Rolex and the 'current but hard to obtain' markets have been over-inflated recently and the prices are likely to be hit significantly, I don`t think you need to be a genius to see that, so there's no way I`d invest in either.
I think cheaper watches in the £500-£1500 category will be less affected, the market will harden a bit but I doubt whether prices will drop sharply.
Hardship may become a significant factor, with people forced to sell watches to raise funds. This will lead to buying opportunities and anyone with spare cash and the capability to get watches serviced/sorted out cheaply could do OK buying a few. Again, I'd avoid the expensive stuff such as Rolex sports, if they drop from the recent heady heights (as I think they will) who knows where the bottom of the market will end up, I wouldn't go near one at the moment unless I really didn`t care about the values falling.
Cash is king at the moment, and likely to remain so until things stabilise. Due to several complex factors over which I have little control I may be in a position to re-invest some cash later this year, but it certainly won't be in watches, it'll be equity income funds or possibly a couple of key shares that pay good dividends. Trying to invest short-term for growth is akin to gambling.......and I don`t like gambling in any shape or form.
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You know what they say about past performance........
It's all a gamble. The time to invest is soon to come, but do you invest in stocks, watches, UK property, foreign property, gold, classic cars / bikes or whatever.
We will almost certainly soon be entering a world wide rising equity market and that is the time any moron can make money, so my money is poised to enter a tracker fund.
Yep - a global downturn is only a problem if you need to sell *now*.
Anyone who sells *now* is either stupid or desperate and will soon be regretting it.
Hang on and things will recover.
1pm and it’s all a gamble. 5pm and you’d be stupid and an idiot to sell!
Do you ever read back the tripe that you write?
As for the ‘almost certainly entering a world wide rising equity market’ - based on what? You have a 50% chance of the market going up? We could be looking at the deepest recession of the last 100 years, possibly ever. There isn’t a single person who knows the answer at this moment in time. Until lockdown is lifted and countries start returning to work no one knows. Even then it’s unlikely for ages.
Luckily I’m fairly confident no one on here listens to your advice.
Quote of the week
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Whatever is going to happen, quality full sets wil hold their value better than most. If I were to consider buying now, I would be looking for top quality now more than ever.
I am saying the same thing in both statements - basically a fool would sell today but it probably makes sense to soon start buying mean the rebound starts.
I agree it's a gamble and that is what I said, so calm down dear.
Even the OCED reckons that the rebound will be reasonably quick, so gloom and doom is a bit pessimistic.
People will always look for a safe haven. Art, exotic cars, flash watches, gold. If we all had crystal balls we'd all be millionaires.
who would have thought a bag of flour would be worth so much
this virus has just started, the worse has yet to come - look at the projection of unemployment figures or even Government borrowing after only three months....project this forward to a year and we will be into "helicopter money" as being the only option left
this has only just started, Governments have basically no idea as to what will happen, they are guessing and the UK Government is being advised by half a dozen "Committees" staffed by the "great and the good" who are constipated by their own importance...... they cannot even manage the supply chain of the equipment and supplies needed to deal the pandemic..........but their answer is always the same........form another Committee and appoint a "Lord" or a Knight of the realm as it's head
Stocks and Shares are now a dangerous game.....dividends are dead and will be for some time......companies, when or if they emerge will present with significantly weaker Balance Sheets and many will need refinancing, I'm not sure shareholders will support that and Banks, well what's in store for them as many borrowers will default or want extended terms.
Oil today, what will it be tomorrow.........a (negative) run on raw materials, who needs them when major economies are not working..sell your raw material companies stocks
Cash is the only safe haven at the present time..........but I'm not sure it is the £..........look elsewhere for a safer currency haven.....interest rates are almost negative so if you have spare funds and you feel comfortable with cash......manage that effectively.
and if and when we come out ........IF......... deflation will sink the ship
The future is not bright
(Oh I forgot, Rolex prices - who needs a Rolex when the economy is shagged!!)
Last edited by BillN; 21st April 2020 at 20:57.
Remind me not to go out for a pint with you mate haha! I hope your wrong,
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You show a value over time chart but doesn't that value amount rely on a regular service history regardless of whether you wear it or not.
A service history that with Rolex will cost so much that it is not worth it as an investment anyway.
Maybe I am wrong but I certainly wouldn't buy a Rolex from anyone who had no service history for it indicating that they just left it in a draw and hoped it went up in value.
For starters I wouldn’t send any of the above watches to Rolex for service as there are independents that I fully trust, it would be a movement only service and even it you wore it every day it will still only need one service in this time period, cost wise your looking at about £300..
Also before it’s mentioned about depth rating and only Rolex can service a Seadweller that’s rubbish, a trusted indy here can pressure test to the full depth rating for an additional £30.00.
Personally as long as it would pass a 300m rating I would be happy as I wouldn’t take a 1665 past a shower..
Last edited by murkeywaters; 22nd April 2020 at 07:30.
Some independents do service SDs, depends if they have the right gear to do it. Some clearly do not and advise you to send to Rolex, but others do and they won't run the bill into four figures for the sake of it.
Wouldn't this thread make more sense if instead of quoting prices at which watches are currently offered for sale, quoted prices those watches are actually selling for in this current crisis if, indeed, they are selling.
Bought my first Rolex December 2013, a December 2011 safe queen 14060M for £3800
Was the watch I always wanted, not an investment.
But turned out to just that
6+ years and many more to come - hopefully
Personally I don’t know anyone who has purchased an equivalent watch during this period, but I think it’s fair to say if any of the above 1665’s came onto SC at a reduced £15k+ they would sell, if the red 1680 came on at £20k I imagine it would also sell, I’m just surmising here, thing is this thread is not literal as in facts, but more to show that all the talk of Rolex being an enjoyable investment is actually a worthy point.
I thought that had long been established.
I'd be interested to know which Indy can service a Sea Dweller complete with pressure test.
I couldn't find a Rolex acreditted independent with pressure testing facilities when I had my 16600 serviced a couple of years ago and had to send it Rolex.
I'll PM you..
https://www.prestigetimeservices.co....ex-accredited/
RSC has been mentioned quite a lot lately for coming up with crazy quotes for new cases, new bracelets and so on when clearly not needed, this attitude makes an independent even more appealing now..
Exactly. PTS currently have my SD and the quoted price is far cheaper than the standard Rolex repair without all the add ons.
Genuine question - If you use this indy can he get Rolex parts. I was under the impression that Rolex and Omega are restricting parts to accredited agents only. A few Indies here often bemoan this fact.
Yes, they are an Omega Service Centre and an accredited by Rolex - all genuine parts. The guy was telling me about a broken Ceramic Pepsi GMT insert that they are dealing with. The full details and the broken insert have to go back to Switzerland for replacement, Rolex UK cannot supply a replacement.
Come on Mick, I did check before sending the Watch to them. Funnily enough, when I got the Watch all I could hear in my head were your words, you'll need to get that serviced now!!
Details on this page Mick:
https://www.prestigetimeservices.co....ex-accredited/
'Rolex Accredited means that our watchmaker has a full parts and materials account with Rolex UK, so we have access to all the spare parts and materials that’s need to be replaced when a Rolex comes in for service and repair.'
The local AD is an accredited Rolex agent and the agreement he has with Rolex is that they will send him genuine parts so as he can do the service but in return he has to charge the same price as returning it directly back to Rolex. Thus in other words, you pay the same price if it's done locally or at RSC.
Hi Tom
I wrote back to WR before I saw your post. So the question is, do you charge the same as Rolex ?
I use my local AD because it is more convenient but I have to pay Rolex prices.
The estimate for my SD after examination is a full movement service for £400 + VAT. A little cheaper than Rolex I would suggest. Money wasn't the primary concern, as stated earlier when Rolex start trying to replace cases and demand close to £3k it is time to take your watch elsewhere.
I believe that the standard Rolex charge for a SD is around £600 which includes VAT and a case polish. Your service is going to be £480 inc VAT but no case polish.
The conversation has gone from the current value to servicing a 1665 SD.
All of my vintage watches are sent to Rolex for the simple reason that they will verify every single part.
I wouldn’t buy a vintage Rolex at current market value without paperwork unless agreeing with the seller that it’s sent to Rolex for an estimate first.
I know that all my watches are correct and if I should ever sell then I have confidence that the buyer will be happy and that there will be no nasty surprises.
Too much of a minefield with super fake parts including dials, hands and bezels.
Lots of people getting burnt, including seasoned experts.
3 words. Divest your portfolio.
Here is my 1665 Rail
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Lovely, as an owner what value would you put on this watch in this climate - not that your going to sell of course but a real world view would be interesting..3 words. Divest your portfolio.
Here is my 1665 Rail
Be more selected with your investment. Have a look at some of the tech companies or funds in the US and then compare.
Hmmm, difficult to say because it would be dependant upon how desperate I was (I’m not BTW).
However given it’s pretty much complete including the original sales receipt, it retains its original super dome and insert, (lacks Rolex papers), I wouldn't sell it for less than £18k. The watch was sold new in 4/4/80 by Elka in Amsterdam (who still exist) for 1695 Guilder, which was about £376
The Rail, really is a rare beast, actually much rarer than than the DRDS, because it was only made for a year.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
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