Reply With QuoteWithout doubt. Here in France we have gone from 15/4 to 11/5.
Hi.
Further to my post a few weeks back, I wondered if anyone thought we would have another 3 weeks or longer?
My principle reasons for asking is seeing my teenage daughter who lives with her mum and also my business, to which we have furloughed circa. 50 staff.
Thanks for opinions.
Adam.
Without doubt. Here in France we have gone from 15/4 to 11/5.
At least 3, I would hazard a guess 5 or more, a big part of the problem is that without wider testing or at this point even accurate reporting of the death toll it is very hard, almost impossible to really know where you are, sorry to say.
Here in Spain lockdown is at least to 26/4, we are expecting at least partial measures to be announced into May, whilst it is being reported we have lifted somewhat, ie builders and some factories back to work the rest of the population is still taking it seriously, distancing, masks, only essential travel to the supermarket etc.
Last edited by Passenger; 15th April 2020 at 15:44.
At some point they are going to end the lockdown against a lot of advice but I think some point in June would be the absolute earliest. I'm prepared for the current way of life to go on to August/September in a best case scenario.
3 more weeks and then allow a gradual return to work for some.
I am in the minority but any longer and the cure is causing more problems than the cause.
I look at the Sweden model and think they have it right.
Last edited by mjc1216; 15th April 2020 at 15:50.
Yep - 3 more weeks and then a gradual release from lockdown to make sure that Covid-19 cases don't spike and overwhelm the NHS again.
Can't see it ending soon, to be honest.
Early June at the earliest, would be my totally unscientific guess, but we'll have to wait and see.
M
Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
I tend to agree with you on all these points.Originally Posted by mjc1216
You've got it right on the button
The big problem currently, is not knowing how many of us have had it, either with or without showing symptoms.
If that number is very high and maybe 60% of us (and rising) have already had it, then assuming you can’t get reinfected, the outcome ought to be quite a swift return to normality. Maybe just a few more weeks or months.
If it turns out that only 3 or 4 percent of the population has had it so far, then we really are screwed. It’ll take years for us all to get it and we would have to have continual distancing Measures in place to stem the flow into the NHS until a vaccine is made, which in itself will likely take 12 months and then a further year to get it into everyone. That is assuming we could do 1 million vaccinations a week = 66 weeks to do the population of the UK.
I seriously hope the first option is true, but again, we can’t know that until a reliable test is made and distributed to millions of us to tell whether we’ve had it or not.
A test of that nature (antibody test) is of far greater help and importance than the current tests which can’t even give a negative result.
I agree with many, three more weeks then they'll start relaxing things, or they risk not only even more 'financial damage' but civil unrest too.
I don't think things are going that well in Sweden:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-reaches-1000Sweden has passed the grim milestone of 1,200 coronavirus deaths, far exceeding the tolls of its nearest neighbours, but suggested it may be nearing the outbreak’s peak as scientists continue to question the government’s light-touch approach.
The Public Health Agency announced a death toll of 1,203 people from Covid-19 on Wednesday, a rate of 118 per million inhabitants, compared with 55 in Denmark and just 13 in Finland, both of which imposed strict early lockdowns to curb the virus’s spread.
Sweden’s per-million tally is also significantly higher than the 42 recorded in Germany – but remains lower than the UK’s rate of 182 (as of Tuesday) and far below Italy’s 349 and Spain’s 399.
Just curious why do you think there’d be civil unrest after 3 more weeks, much of Europe is currently into their fifth week and counting, sure it’s not easy but if it helps saves lives plus not seeing any signs of civil unrest here as yet.
We have extended to end of april and now talking about May with some restrictions been removed
I obviously don't know - but would think your second option of 3 - 4% is still optomistic, based on the "experts" that I have listened to.
While they may start to relax things early due to financial concerns I really can't see any civil unrest after another 3 weeks. Not even a peep of it.
I'm assuming 3 weeks minimum.
And I don't believe we'll see any civil unrest here.
R
Ignorance breeds Fear. Fear breeds Hatred. Hatred breeds Ignorance. Break the chain.
I think the government would like to go with another month, but they'll find it easier to say 3 weeks and review then.
To be fair can anyone accurately answer that question re the Ukwhich is a major part of the challenge of working a safe way out of lockdown.
Sweden isn't doing that well.
We have 6.5 times the population they have, and their population density is far lower (so that should slow transmission by itself).
If you multiply their their deaths so far by 6.5 you get 7800. Less than us, but still heading towards the same ball park proportionately.
Germany, on the other hand, is doing very well. Their population is 83 million, and so far they have just 3800 deaths. We have nearly 13,000 deaths in the UK with a population of 65 million.
Therefore if we were dealing with Covid-19 as well as Germany, proportionately, we should have around 2500 deaths at this point.
Granted, there may be variance in the reasons cited as causes of death, but it is still clear that the UK is not doing particularly well compared to other European countries, and neither is Sweden.
Ireland is doing well though, especially compared to the UK:
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-ireland-delay
Last edited by TheFlyingBanana; 16th April 2020 at 00:52.
So clever my foot fell off.
As you say the figures are just figures, that are being delivered without any real context. As I understand it, if you are run over by a bus, yet make it to hospital to live for a few hours/days and are found to be carrying the virus you are deemed to be a Covid 19 victim in this country. With far less radical deaths also being included, that can sway the figures hugely. I'm guessing this method of counting is different in other countries?
I would say 40% of the population. I know loads who have had it including myself my kids and my girlfriend. People are very naive to believe only 3-4%. This is so contagious you have no idea, just being outside and going to the supermarket you are 100% guaranteed to get it.
How do you know? All been tested?
Don't just do something, sit there. - TNH
Unless you’ve been tested, having cold or flu like symptoms at this time of year or over the winter months is hardly rare or unusual. At this point in time I only know 2 people who have been laid up with flu type symptoms and their GP has said they have had Tonsilitis (without any tests). I have spoken with lots of people who have said they had ‘really bad flu’ late last year/early this year and are sure they have had Covid 19. I think this is wishful thinking personally. ‘Just being outside and gong to the supermarket you are 100% guaranteed to get it’?!? - sorry that sounds like BS to me.
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A lot of friends and family are terrified at the thought of restrictions being lifted in the next few weeks. I can’t see many people running back to the shops and cinema and hugging all their co workers back at their office in 3 weeks time like its all magically disappeared. A lot of the population will still keep their distance (particularly those in vulnerable groups which is a surprisingly large number it seems) - and be genuinely worried at the prospect, I know I will. My youngest is 17 with a mental age of around 4 and a heart condition (he has Down’s syndrome) and as a family unit we are petrified of him getting the virus. He has no idea about social distancing, bless him - he’s a hugs and kisses chap! - and no politician saying ‘ best get back to work, don’t worry only an extra 2-4% will die, best for the economy’ will convince me to throw caution to the wind I’m afraid. 2-4% is a cosy little number but represents a lot of death and misery.
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I can’t remember in which country it has appeared, but some graffiti says something like ‘How can we go back to normal when it’s normal that caused all this?’.
I think that sums it up, both in terms of when we’ll ‘get back to normal’ (I don’t think we will) and I also fear that the world won’t embrace the opportunity that this virus and situation presents to shift the way we live everywhere.
That's very funny.
I suppose that’s dependant upon the definition of “normal”.
But I am curious to understand what changes people would like to see occur in future to prevent a repeat of this, especially as viruses are a force of nature.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Not to prevent but in the event of another similar outbreak I would like to see the government of the day act quicker and have people's lives as the priority rather than the economy.
It's a misconception to think that the government wasn't quick enough, in my view. The CMO and chief scientific adviser did actually stress the importance of timing the various measures at the right moment for maximum effect, precisely in the interest of minimising fatalities. The point that people seem to be overlooking, conveniently in some cases, is that these measures are not infinitely sustainable and therefore I'm thankful that the government took particular care to introduce them at the best possible moment.
When the "lockdown" was announced, I certainly didn't expect it to be lifted after only three weeks. Someone asked me at the time how long I thought these measures would be in place and I took a guess at them being lifted some time in June.
That probably holds weight if like someone in another thread you believe civil unrest would occur after a set amount of time and delaying any lockdown minimises the chance of that.
No one knows what essential travel is, it seems to be discretionary. My neighbour has tree surgeons over this morning. They've been outside since 8am shaping up some.of her bushes. I get they can't work from home but that isn't essential and shouldn't be happening.
There are even reports of some completely non essential shops ordering in fridges and freezers with nothing them just so they can remain open.
I've voted for the three main parties in previous elections and am completely open as to who I would vote for in the future so it isn't political for me on that sense, but the way this way handled was pathetic and beaten only by America.
Where America leads, we...the UK typically follows historically, even culturally speaking to some extent, 'special relationship' innit.
Viruses are not "a force".
IMO, we need to start treating nature and wildlife with a lot more respect than hitherto. Digging carbon out of the earth and putting it into the atmosphere is not a great idea.
Why? Why shouldn't it be happening? "Work" doesn't have to be "essential" to be able to carry on.
What rules would you like them to follow, rules which are in place or rules which you would like to be in place?
Darn right for my money, either we start taking care of nature, or she'll take care of us, one way or another, as this latest farrago vividly demonstrates.
Force of Nature (figuratively) A thing or person that exhibits qualities which appear to be beyond outside control.
Perhaps people should be to allowed to determine their own risks and take whatever precautions they deem appropriate for their own circumstances. Just as we do in respect to our diet, alcohol consumption, smoking, driving, flying, etc. The vast majority of us are not servicemen being ordered in to life threatening situations - we have a choice.
I get that the measures taken by the government was necessary to prevent the NHS from getting swamped and also “educate” the population, however it now seems the NHS has capacity and most people are “educated”.
Also what we currently have a one size fits all policy. So the same rules which apply to people living in high rise tower block in London, apply to the people living in remote rural communities around the UK. It also applies to all age groups despite that fact that over 90% of deaths occur in the over 60’s.
Finally we need to consider the long term impact of this. I am sure none of us will be very happy if in 12 months time we have 50% of the population being unemployed, riots and looting in inner cities, the collapse of public services because of inadequate tax revenues and a possible decent into Marshal law, rationing, etc. . All of which would be much worse IMHO especially as this situation could last considerable longer than 6 weeks. WW2 Rationing in the UK didn’t end until 1958.
Whilst lose of life is tragic, especially for the families involved, it’s important to also retain some perspective. Not forgetting of course that on the 1st July 1916, the UK lost over 16,000 men (between the ages of 16-50) “going over the top”, or that during the Blitz, London suffered over 40,000 deaths as a result of the bombings.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
What would you have had them do? Immediately ground all aircraft, close all ports, not repatriate UK citizens, close all hospitals except for emergencies, impose a lock down, curfews and place people under house arrest, soldiers on the streets, anyone with symptoms be rounded up?
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
40% of the people you know, is not 40% of population.
Are these people actually zipped up the back?
https://apple.news/AbEOLzcBVQ2CYTHqVhHyeyg
There's just no helping stupid. And they're heavily armed, what could possibly go wrong.
Last edited by Passenger; 16th April 2020 at 10:31.
Whoosh. You do that living in a completely artificial and sterile bubble, would protect you from all viruses and bacteria don’t you. Therefore digging carbon has bugger all to do with this.
Poor food hygiene, global travel, globalisation and 8B people (many artificially maintained by “drugs” and other medical advances), compressed into a ever decreasing space on the hand, does.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Genuinely interested in where Andy'd draw the line as regards this 'artificially maintained by drugs and other medical advances' point, would it be as 'low' as MMR vaccinations or as 'high' as cancer or diabetes treatments..it's quite a conundrum. Logans Run or the Hunger Games...hmmm
Last edited by Passenger; 16th April 2020 at 10:44.
Very sensible.
Did any of the apocalyptic scenarios happen then, though? I know people are incredibly self-interested these days (the idea that the 'Blitz spirit' lives on was roundly buried by the panic buying locusts), but you're making a mighty leap into riots, chaos and marshal law due to a few months in lock down. We didn't have that in the 70s or 80s either, when unemployment and disruption of services ran at very high levels.
M
Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
And there were only 4 or 5 channels on the telly in the 70's and 80's, none of your i phones either, or modern gaming platforms either, back then it were a commodore 64 if you were lucky, the average joe today enjoys almost limitless opportunities for entertainment or at least distraction by comparison.
All well and good but as I’ve said in another thread all the self employed who get zero support from the government will just ignore lockdown shortly - basically because they have to eat. Xbox doesn’t fill your belly
Not even 4 in the seventies, Channel 4 started in 1982.
Don’t think on all day until eighties either.
Fair point but will their customers go right back to business as usual, and have the means of payment may be another consideration, surely not during the next 3 weeks, maybe they will I really don't know...as the lock down here in Spain has eased just slightly after the weekend, we're allowed to have our builders on site, they are working at a considerable distance from the house, even have their own entrance but we wouldn't be comfortable, wouldn't 'feel' right having any work done in the house, as of 5 weeks on lock-down tomorrow, even though it's probably theoretically permitted/ nobody would know.
Could you proof-read and punctuate your posts, please? They are largely incoherent.
Micro-organisms are well-known to be influenced by ambient temperature.
Why have you put drugs in inverted commas? Do you think medical advances are a bad thing? What makes you think that the space available on earth is decreasing?
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