When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

[jonny]

One chart summarising how crazy this equity rallye is:

Insane, another 4.4 million unemployment claims this week, bringing the 5 week total so far to 26 million unemployment claims (US had almost 160 million workers pre cov19) yet the S&P 500 is at the same price as during your 2019 summer holiday!

I assume the market is brushing off unemployment stats atm because of the US Gov stimulus package, unemployment benefits are paying an extra $600 a week(till July) so depending on the state some workers are being paid $1000 a week benefits.

[Raffe]

Insane, another 4.4 million unemployment claims this week, bringing the 5 week total so far to 26 million unemployment claims (US had almost 160 million workers pre cov19) yet the S&P 500 is at the same price as during your 2019 summer holiday!

I assume the market is brushing off unemployment stats atm because of the US Gov stimulus package, unemployment benefits are paying an extra $600 a week(till July) so depending on the state some workers are being paid $1000 a week benefits.

Spoke with an old friend of mine who works in wealth management. He is advising some extremely wealthy clients and he told me these people are absolutely terrified about the debt which global governments are racking up and are fleeing into equities and commodities. Insane, thinking that 100% listed equities is the correct allocation when we are heading in mankind's largest ever recession takes some special logic.

I suppose the moment when all the flows have happened reality will kick in.

[Montello]

Spoke with an old friend of mine who works in wealth management. He is advising some extremely wealthy clients and he told me these people are absolutely terrified about the debt which global governments are racking up and are fleeing into equities and commodities.

Fleeing from what? Bonds?

[Raffe]

Fleeing from what? Bonds?

Balanced portfolios. Exiting all cash, bonds, credit.

Just imagine the discussions a banker needs to have with these clients in times of MiFID II...

[Montello]

Balanced portfolios. Exiting all cash, bonds, credit.

Because they expect rampant inflation or defaults?

Just imagine the discussions a banker needs to have with these clients in times of MiFID II...

Not sure what that means, some sort of EU regs?

[Raffe]

Because they expect rampant inflation or defaults?

Inflation, defaults and the zombie apocalypse.

Not sure what that means, some sort of EU regs?

Not sure this is meant seriously?

[crazyp]

Spoke with an old friend of mine who works in wealth management. He is advising some extremely wealthy clients and he told me these people are absolutely terrified about the debt which global governments are racking up and are fleeing into equities and commodities. Insane, thinking that 100% listed equities is the correct allocation when we are heading in mankind's largest ever recession takes some special logic.

I suppose the moment when all the flows have happened reality will kick in.

Thanks for that Raffe - this actually makes some sense of why the stock market is doing what it's doing. I still think our assumption of deflation is valid. I guess many folk cannot even fathom that notion.

[Montello]

Inflation, defaults and the zombie apocalypse.

If it’s the latter then it doesn’t really matter what we do with our investments.

Not sure this is meant seriously?

I’m means I didn’t understand the point.

[Raffe]

Thanks for that Raffe - this actually makes some sense of why the stock market is doing what it's doing. I still think our assumption of deflation is valid. I guess many folk cannot even fathom that notion.

Agree.

The market behaviour just makes me happy I rolled my positions into options, not sure I could happily sit and watch if I was exposed to delta one.

[Glitterati]

Yes, absolutely correct. Inflation will work wonders for equities and stagnant economies, as well this huge new round of QE.. What Japan and Europe would have given for some inflation over the past few years ! And yes, bond defaults is also a serious risk.

Not recommendations by any means, but I'm still buying long term themes. Have ridden the recovery wave of technology, infrastructure and healthcare sectors globally in recent weeks. Have been loading up on housebuilders in UK for last fortnight as hugely oversold. On the back burner, trying to assess the recovery potential of travel/leisure (Carnival Cruises, Airlines, TUI etc. and places like Cineworld). That's the next wave though or maybe even the one after that, so I have some time yet.

It's the second wave of infection that is spooking markets currently. This isn't going away any time soon. Analysts have no clue where company earnings will land, so it's a huge casino currently I'm afraid!

[Raffe]

Yes, absolutely correct. Inflation will work wonders for equities and stagnant economies, as well this huge new round of QE.. What Japan and Europe would have given for some inflation over the past few years ! And yes, bond defaults is also a serious risk.

Not recommendations by any means, but I'm still buying long term themes. Have ridden the recovery wave of technology, infrastructure and healthcare sectors globally in recent weeks. Have been loading up on housebuilders in UK for last fortnight as hugely oversold. On the back burner, trying to assess the recovery potential of travel/leisure (Carnival Cruises, Airlines, TUI etc. and places like Cineworld). That's the next wave though or maybe even the one after that, so I have some time yet.

It's the second wave of infection that is spooking markets currently. This isn't going away any time soon. Analysts have no clue where company earnings will land, so it's a huge casino currently I'm afraid!

Best of luck with that strategy.

[Glitterati]

Thanks, but it's only a small play around the edges ff I'm honest. Longer term building blocks of portfolios are already in place. As always, asset allocation is key here, the rest will almost look after itself, but it really is time in the markets that is important, not market timing. I've given up trying to find market bottoms and the only way you will see one is by looking back a few months when it has been and gone.

For disclosure, I now manage about £700m across global and UK markets. It's less than it was a couple of months ago of course !!

[Raffe]

[mr noble]

That'd be an exit trigger if ever I saw one. I've been meaning to move my sipp into cash for a week now but like a gambler it is always 'one more day'. I think I'll do it tomorrow as rally or not the market is going to plummet like a dart at some imminent stage

Maybe be best to hedge it Ryan and only sell half.

I’ve decided to just sit tight and stick to the core passive investing principles. Let the automatic asset allocation rebalancing take care of things.

I’m sure in 10 years it’ll just be a blip like 2008 is now. Maybe a tad bigger.

I’d far rather do nothing and take what comes than try to time the markets and hugely regret doing so.

[Glitterati]

I was once told the stockmarket is the most efficient machine ever invented for transferring cash from the impatient to the patient. It's so true, so take it on at your peril.

Re the actives Vs passives debate, generally passives on the way up and actives on the way down seems to work for me.

[Raffe]

I was once told the stockmarket is the most efficient machine ever invented for transferring cash from the impatient to the patient. It's so true, so take it on at your peril.

Re the actives Vs passives debate, generally passives on the way up and actives on the way down seems to work for me.

There is some truth to the statement about patience/impatience, I have found that I am much more patient when I am sitting in options.

I have been responsible for asset allocation for some fairly large portfolios over 9/11 and the GFC, we obviously never sold out but tuned our asset allocation. However today as a private investor I can afford to be bold and am only answering to myself. I find that very satisfying.

[Raffe]

Going to put this here, capital flight is apparently a thing again. This is from a local English-language newsletter, quoting the original Spanish article (link at the end):

Spaniards reported to move savings to Luxembourg for fear of government confiscation
Thousand of Spaniards fearful that their government could commandeer savings to help finance economic recovery measures are reported to have moved money to bank accounts in Luxembourg and Switzerland in recent weeks. Outflows are believed to have increased following a tweet by Pablo Iglesias, a deputy prime minister and secretary-general of left-wing coalition member Podemos, stating that the country's private wealth is subordinate to the public interest, although this merely quotes Article 128 of Spain's constitution. Banks that have received funds from Spanish clients include Lombard Odier, Pictet, Mirabaud and Julius Bär, ​​as well as Quintet Private Bank, which has a subsidiary in Spain, and Andbank, which has a branch in Luxembourg. Last month Spain's CaixaBank opened a private banking operation in the grand duchy to serve clients with more than €500,000 in investable assets. Unlike capital flight in the past, the latest outflows are not designed to evade tax, since Luxembourg provides bank account information to Spain on its residents.
El Confidenciel (in Spanish)

[~dadam02~]

Wasn't there something similar in Greece not that many years back? I remember an old colleague squirreling away his folks savings out of Greece for fear of it all being confiscated by the Government. Terrible times.

[langdalematt]

Wasn't there something similar in Greece not that many years back? I remember an old colleague squirreling away his folks savings out of Greece for fear of it all being confiscated by the Government. Terrible times.

They actually did this in Cyprus. Instructed by the EU, they were told to take cash from people’s accounts, anyone with over 150k, to take everything and in return they would get an IOU from the government which has never been repaid. Another reason not to trust the EU or government generally.

[Passenger]

They actually did this in Cyprus. Instructed by the EU, they were told to take cash from people’s accounts, anyone with over 150k, to take everything and in return they would get an IOU from the government which has never been repaid. Another reason not to trust the EU or government generally.

iirc in that instance they were also trying to target wealthy Russians of possibly shady backgrounds, mostly the smart Ruskis drew their cash out via the London branches of the Cypriot banks and basically regular joes took the hit. It's the reason I never keep more than a couple of months cash in my Spanish accounts.

[Raffe]

They actually did this in Cyprus. Instructed by the EU, they were told to take cash from people’s accounts, anyone with over 150k, to take everything and in return they would get an IOU from the government which has never been repaid. Another reason not to trust the EU or government generally.

That is nonsense.

The background of the programme was that the Cyprus government had allowed their banks to build a massive operation for wealthy Russians to launder illicit funds and acquire a free EUR passport along the way. When those banks went bankrupt, the Cypriot government asked for EU assistance to bail them out. This assistance was offered under the condition, thant the economic pain would not only be shouldered by the other EU countries but that Cyprus would have to participate as well, and this participation should be done via a 'bail-in' of deposit holders (a measure actually targetting the Russians). The plan was to levy a tax of of 6.7% for deposits up to €100,000 and 9.9% for higher deposits, while the account holders were due to be compensated with shares in their banks. I suppose this was the best and fairest way to ahre the pain, who else was supposed to pay for it if not the wealthy (the state was effectively bankrupt and most of the risk would be taken by the remaining EU countries anyways). However, the Cypriot government let word slip and somehow the Russian money was largely gone when the accounts were locked. The measure was later adapted so that no saver below EUR 100k had to pay the levy.

But let's not let facts come in the way of a good opportunity to bash the EU.

[langdalematt]

That is nonsense.

The background of the programme was that the Cyprus government had allowed their banks to build a massive operation for wealthy Russians to launder illicit funds and acquire a free EUR passport along the way. When those banks went bankrupt, the Cypriot government asked for EU assistance to bail them out. This assistance was offered under the condition, thant the economic pain would not only be shouldered by the other EU countries but that Cyprus would have to participate as well, and this participation should be done via a 'bail-in' of deposit holders (a measure actually targetting the Russians). The plan was to levy a tax of of 6.7% for deposits up to €100,000 and 9.9% for higher deposits, while the account holders were due to be compensated with shares in their banks. I suppose this was the best and fairest way to ahre the pain, who else was supposed to pay for it if not the wealthy (the state was effectively bankrupt and most of the risk would be taken by the remaining EU countries anyways). However, the Cypriot government let word slip and somehow the Russian money was largely gone when the accounts were locked. The measure was later adapted so that no saver below EUR 100k had to pay the levy.

But let's not let facts come in the way of a good opportunity to bash the EU.

Not complete nonsense

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/...vings/2595837/

[Raffe]

Not complete nonsense

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/...vings/2595837/

Those losses were because the banks actually went bankrupt, it was never a condition of the EU programme. The same would happen to you if your bank goes bust.

[Passenger]

It was some years back but wasn't a significant factor in Cypriot banks wobbliness down to the amount of Greek debt they'd been, ahem, asked to underwrite/absorb by the EU in the Great Greek bailout, and I've a vague memory of Wolfie Schauble, Germany's finance minister at one point floating the idea of haircuts to include those with somewhat less than 100k, but heck mucky water under the bridge now.

fwiw I moved some savings into my wallet this morning, got builders to pay, happily no drama.

[Raffe]

It was some years back but wasn't a significant factor in Cypriot banks wobbliness down to the amount of Greek debt they'd been, ahem, asked to underwrite/absorb by the EU in the Great Greek bailout, and I've a vague memory of Wolfie Schauble, Germany's finance minister at one point floating the idea of haircuts to include those with somewhat less than 100k, but heck mucky water under the bridge now.

fwiw I moved some savings into my wallet this morning, got builders to pay, happily no drama.

Cypriot banks, or any banks from any country, have been asked to underwrite/buy Greek debt? By the EU, by their own governement, by anybody?

That is news to me.

[Passenger]

Cypriot banks, or any banks from any country, have been asked to underwrite/buy Greek debt? By the EU, by their own governement, by anybody?

That is news to me.

Forgive me it was a while ago, memory fades, and I lack your intimate knowledge of the banking system, nomenclature and practices but from wiki,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_...nt-debt_crisis

'A year later, a worsened recession along with the poor performance of the Greek government in achieving the conditions of the agreed bailout, forced a second bailout. In July 2011, private creditors agreed to a voluntary haircut of 21 percent on their Greek debt, but Euro zone officials considered this write-down to be insufficient.[115] Especially Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, "pushed private creditors to accept a 50 percent loss on their Greek bonds",[116] while Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank had long opposed a haircut for private investors, "fearing that it could undermine the vulnerable European banking system".[116] When private investors agreed to accept bigger losses, the Troika launched the second bailout worth €130 billion.'

The Cypriot Banks were I believe overexposed to Greek debt, their own choice, but then when the hammer fell and the haircut of 50 percent was forced upon them as part of the larger Greek bailout this further undermined the already fragile Cypriot banks, might that be a more accurate laymans summary...also seem to recollect the Dutch finance minister Djisselbloem made some kind of faux pas in the handling of the crisis earning him the moniker Dieselbomb in some quarters, still ancient history now.

[Raffe]

Forgive me it was a while ago, memory fades, and I lack your intimate knowledge of the banking system, nomenclature and practices but from wiki,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_...nt-debt_crisis

'A year later, a worsened recession along with the poor performance of the Greek government in achieving the conditions of the agreed bailout, forced a second bailout. In July 2011, private creditors agreed to a voluntary haircut of 21 percent on their Greek debt, but Euro zone officials considered this write-down to be insufficient.[115] Especially Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, "pushed private creditors to accept a 50 percent loss on their Greek bonds",[116] while Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank had long opposed a haircut for private investors, "fearing that it could undermine the vulnerable European banking system".[116] When private investors agreed to accept bigger losses, the Troika launched the second bailout worth €130 billion.'

The Cypriot Banks were I believe overexposed to Greek debt, their own choice, but then when the hammer fell and the haircut of 50 percent was forced upon them as part of the larger Greek bailout this further undermined the already fragile Cypriot banks, might that be a more accurate laymans summary...also seem to recollect the Dutch finance minister Djisselbloem made some kind of faux pas in the handling of the crisis earning him the moniker Dieselbomb in some quarters, still ancient history now.

Sure, they suffered from the haircut. But in the end it begs the question why they were so overexposed? The 10% yield that those bonds paid might have played a role in their decision to buy it, plus some kind of assumed EU backstop.

Anyway, another reason to blame the EU. Either for socialising the greek mess or for not socialising the greek mess. Can't do it right, it seems.

[Passenger]

Sure, they suffered from the haircut. But in the end it begs the question why they were so overexposed? The 10% yield that those bonds paid might have played a role in their decision to buy it, plus some kind of assumed EU backstop.

Anyway, another reason to blame the EU. Either for socialising the greek mess or for not socialising the greek mess. Can't do it right, it seems.

Well that horse, doing right, bolted the stable when the Greeks 'got away' with fiddling the books, with a little help from Goldmans, in order to fudge the fiscal entry requirements in the first place, six of one/half dozen of the other really, but heck who cares at this point.

[jonny]

I suppose the moment when all the flows have happened reality will kick in.

Either there will be second wave of Covid 19 , reality hits in when large companies the most disastrous 2nd quarter results thinkable, or what I think is most likely, markets will tank when the colossal government stimulus come to an end.
As I mentioned earlier the 2 trillion dollar stimulus package is resulting in unemployed waiters getting over $1000 a week in welfare cheques (extra $600 a week from the gov in addition to normal unemployment benefit), how many (low to medium) workers are earning more at the moment unemployed than in work?

In the UK the furlong scheme (up to 2.5k a month) is holding back the tide of mass unemployment and redundancies for now.
My younger brothers mate is a barber.He pays £1000 a month rent for a shop (no business rates) .Local authority have paid the 10k business grant, So out of that 10k grant (assume shops shut for 3 months) his costs are 3k for rent,no rates,20% wages for employee (as gov pays the rest )& a few other small overheads.Easily 5k left from the grant, as well as that he can claim £2,500 a month for not being able to work himself. Im not sure what he earns but he may have earned more whilst being shut during COV19 than working normally.

[ryanb741]

(EDITED to say this is in NO WAY whatsoever a tip or a projection and is based on some commentary in the public domain on various internet sites which may or may not be true. I have no relationship with Gilead, own no Gilead stock, am not a qualified financial adviser and as such what I have posted is hearsay and speculation until proven otherwise and should be completely ignored for investment purposes. Whether there actually is a US trial publishing next week is unsubstantiated - for sure there will be one in mid-late May and whether that is positive or negative for Resdesivir is again unsubstantiated). There was a leaked document indicating Remsdesivir was a failed drug and didnt help Covid patients. That spooked the markets a bit and impacted Gilead's stock price however without going into too much detail (I'm never sure what you are and aren't allowed to say when it comes to stocks) that 'failed' test is not a failed test at all and was an inappropriate experiment in China on patients already at death's door and with a very small cohort. A US trial will publish next week and Gilead will skyrocket and that will push the market up again. So I'm going to wait until that happens and then exit into cash. Or does anyone think gold is a good bet now?

[Raffe]

*** see above ***

...and from where do you get all this interesting information?

I suppose I don't have to explain to you that sharing priviledged insider information constitutes market abuse, which carries a maximum prison sentence of seven years in the UK. That includes people forwarding such information to third parties on watch fora. Just sayin'.

[Devonian]

...and from where do you get all this interesting information?

I suppose I don't have to explain to you that sharing priviledged insider information constitutes market abuse, which carries a maximum prison sentence of seven years in the UK. That includes people forwarding such information to third parties on watch fora. Just sayin'.

How about removing Ryan’s quote in your post so he can amend his if he feels he’s posted something he shouldn’t have? I’m sure his intention wouldn’t be to post something he shouldn’t have.

[~dadam02~]

...and from where do you get all this interesting information?

I suppose I don't have to explain to you that sharing priviledged insider information constitutes market abuse, which carries a maximum prison sentence of seven years in the UK. That includes people forwarding such information to third parties on watch fora. Just sayin'.

Either that or a good thick slice of pump and dump pie.

[Raffe]

How about removing Ryan’s quote in your post so he can amend his if he feels he’s posted something he shouldn’t have? I’m sure his intention wouldn’t be to post something he shouldn’t have.

Really?

The intention to trade on priviledged information is a crime, and every honest investor is the victim of this behaviour. Ryan is either involved in criminal insider trading or - as Darren has correctly observed - is trying to induce other investors to bid up markets so he can dump his holding, which is also unethical or even criminal behaviour.

I don't take this lightly and will not remove the quoted text.

[Devonian]

Really?

The intention to trade on priviledged information is a crime, and every honest investor is the victim of this behaviour. Ryan is either involved in criminal insider trading or - as Darren has correctly observed - is trying to induce other investors to bid up markets so he can dump his holding, which is also unethical or even criminal behaviour.

I don't take this lightly and will not remove the quoted text.

Most of what he wrote can be found from a quick google of the name (leaked info, a flop, analysts are saying no). All out there. The rest I would say could well be Ryan reading into things and coming up with his own conclusions. Ryan tends to go all in on his posts as I’m sure you know.

So yes you could just remove your post and move on as you have no more idea on it than I do. Your choice of course, but leaving it there serves no benefit. I won’t mention or debate it any further but that’s what I would do. This current environment is tough enough as it is.

[Raffe]

Most of what he wrote can be found from a quick google of the name (leaked info, a flop, analysts are saying no). All out there. The rest I would say could well be Ryan reading into things and coming up with his own conclusions. Ryan tends to go all in on his posts as I’m sure you know.

So yes you could just remove your post and move on as you have no more idea on it than I do. Your choice of course, but leaving it there serves no benefit. I won’t mention or debate it any further but that’s what I would do. This current environment is tough enough as it is.

Your initial post was suggesting I remove my quote of his post so he could make it disappear? If you are now saying it is public information there would be no reason to remove anything?

It is pump and dump at a minimum, and that leaves a very bad taste in my mouth. You are welcome to think it's okay, I don't have to agree.

[Casper]

at least remove the last four sentences. The rest is public information.
If one of our traders had posted that in a chat they would be in trouble.

[ryanb741]

Geez lol just came back to this now. This isn't insider info as I am neither a trader nor work for Gilead. I don't hold any Gilead stock either.

This info is out in the public domain if you search hard enough but isn't available easily enough that the average Joe playing the markets irrationally would maybe understand (as they'd see the knee-jerk reaction).

[ryanb741]

at least remove the last four sentences. The rest is public information.
If one of our traders had posted that in a chat they would be in trouble.

It's fine as the fact there is a US evaluation ongoing with preliminary very positive results is again in the common domain. Real reason the Remsdesivir trial flopped is China had no intention of making it successful as they want their own drugs to 'win' out.

In any case I reiterate I have no involvement with Gilead or have any holdings, I'm just researching heavily into all things COVID and this information is something that is being widely discussed in the scientific community online.

[Casper]

It's fine as the fact there is a US evaluation ongoing with preliminary very positive results is again in the common domain. Real reason the Remsdesivir trial flopped is China had no intention of making it successful as they want their own drugs to 'win' out.

In any case I reiterate I have no involvement with Gilead or have any holdings, I'm just researching heavily into all things COVID and this information is something that is being widely discussed in the scientific community online.

That’s fine then if it’s all out there. I couldn’t see anything after a quick look on Reuter’s and BB but if it’s discussed publicly amongst the science boffins then that’s ok. Don’t want to see anyone get into trouble for stuff like this.
Incidentally spreading unsubstantiated rumours even if they don’t hold the stock is also an offence.

[ryanb741]

Either that or a good thick slice of pump and dump pie.

Seriously Darren what the actual F*** mate? You of all people know I'm not in financial services. Geez.

[demonloop]

Would one person putting some info on a teeny tiny watch forum really cause a price to pump? Is the market really that small??

Not suggesting for one second that was Ryan’s intention - I just don’t think it could have the desired effect anyway.

Ryan: I wouldn’t be too worried about the men in suits coming to your door with cuffs, even if Raffe has touted you out

[murkeywaters]

A US trial will publish next week and Gilead will skyrocket and that will push the market up again. So I'm going to wait until that happens and then exit into cash. Or does anyone think gold is a good bet now?

With these last couple of sentences are you going to invest if not currently holding stock? Saying your going to wait for it to skyrocket and cash out reads like your already invested.

Regardless, I’m interested too in getting in and out of shares quick at the moment, I don’t fancy leaving money sitting around in a volatile market, I may not take big profit but there is a lot to be said for getting back into port safe.

[farquare]

The story about Gilead and the incorrectly published report appeared in my Google feed yesterday.....
I've no stock, interest in pharma or search history with this drug/trial.
I wouldn't be worried too much about info already in the public domain.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

[pacifichrono]

I actually read a very favorable story on Gilead about a week ago and bought 200 shares as a result. It's gone down a couple bucks since I bought.

[peterdo]

Wow, this escalated quickly! There’s only market abuse if someone is acting in inside information, so unless Ryan is somehow on the ‘inside’ of that company or associated firms (which he has said he isn’t’) then repeating something published on the internet wouldn’t be considered insider trading or market abuse.

That’s my professional perspective as someone who held regulated roles responsible for identifying and reporting this behaviour for an execution only stock broker.....

Sleep easy Ryan, the boys with the windbreakers won’t be knocking on your door!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ryanb741]

Would one person putting some info on a teeny tiny watch forum really cause a price to pump? Is the market really that small??

Not suggesting for one second that was Ryan’s intention - I just don’t think it could have the desired effect anyway.

Ryan: I wouldn’t be too worried about the men in suits coming to your door with cuffs, even if Raffe has touted you out

That’s fine then if it’s all out there. I couldn’t see anything after a quick look on Reuter’s and BB but if it’s discussed publicly amongst the science boffins then that’s ok. Don’t want to see anyone get into trouble for stuff like this.
Incidentally spreading unsubstantiated rumours even if they don’t hold the stock is also an offence.

Cheers. There is a US report due for sure in a few weeks where the prelims had been positive and I'm sure I read that some news was due imminently again from the US but in the interests of caveating I'll, er, caveat that this is of course hearsay until substantiated and I am by no means making a recommendation, nor am I authorised or qualified to do so.

My post was basically saying that last time Gilead pumped so did the stock market as it was a sign that the disease may be more treatable and I was going to see if that would happen next week before cashing out my investments (which are 80% index trackers and then a mix of other funds such as Baillie Gifford, Fundsmith etc but no singular investments in Gilead).

If anyone is interested in doing their own research the r/covid19 sub on reddit is the best as it has a very scientific bent. r/coronavirus sub on reddit is also on topic and has far more content but there is a lot more unsubstantiated stuff on that latter sub and lots of 'doomers' overstating the severity of this disease so it needs to be read with a giant pinch of salt. But in these subreddits are several threads around the supposed failed Remsdesevir trial and I got some of my info from that.

Interestingly if you look at the r/covid19 sub there is a live thread following a new drug (from a different company) that has initially shown a 84% survival rate when used on severe patients on ventilators (albeit in a smaller group than you'd want to get a true idea of its effectiveness) as opposed to the typical 18% survival rate in the US for these patients. Again, not a recommendation but worth following as a lot of the breaking news developments are covered on that subreddit.

[catch21]

Well done and thank you Ryan. Personally, I think your intentions are entirely honourable and I’m very grateful to have read your significant input over the last few months.

[Raffe]

You neither have to work in financial markets nor for Gilead in order to conduct criminal insider trading. You can spin this any way you want, but you were clearly inferring in your original post that you had info which was not in the public domain:

*** deleted ***

That is not the same as you are saying now:

There is a US report due for sure in a few weeks where the prelims had been positive and I'm sure I read that some news was due imminently again from the US but in the interests of caveating I'll, er, caveat that this is of course hearsay until substantiated and I am by no means making a recommendation, nor am I authorised or qualified to do so.

My post was basically saying that last time Gilead pumped so did the stock market as it was a sign that the disease may be more treatable and I was going to see if that would happen next week before cashing out my investments (which are 80% index trackers and then a mix of other funds such as Baillie Gifford, Fundsmith etc but no singular investments in Gilead).

I suppose you are trying to say that you were just bragging about knowing something which you don't? That is still pump'n'dump and if not criminal, at least unethical, whether on a watch forum or on a trader board. If that makes me a sociopath then that is fine by me. I know what it makes you.

[ryanb741]

You neither have to work in financial markets nor for Gilead in order to conduct criminal insider trading. You can spin this any way you want, but you were clearly inferring in your original post that you had info which was not in the public domain:



That is not the same as you are saying now:



I suppose you are trying to say that you were just bragging about knowing something which you don't? That is still pump'n'dump and if not criminal, at least unethical, whether on a watch forum or on a trader board. If that makes me a sociopath then that is fine by me. I know what it makes you.

Raffe it is obvious to me what I was trying to say and I clarified my post later to avoid confusion as some of the far more gentlemanly members here pointed out that anything that could be construed as rumour mongering could be an issue and I am grateful for their advice and my consequent ability to clarify my points so they aren't misconstrued. In any case I own no Gilead stocks so nothing to pump or dump. End-of-matter.