Reply With QuoteBuy!
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0Originally Posted by Raffe
Buy!
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Don't forget to sell before the inevitable bankruptcy.Argo up +50% today. No news.
Only need another 600% to break even.
I would start with selling 20% here and now. But that's me.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I don't buy that, expecting a sharp sell-off next days.Buy!
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Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Tesla on its way to dip below $100 today? Currently at $103 after another round of pricing cuts in China and Japan.
They are selling cars in China now for 40% below US prices. At this point, they are just trying to keep the factories going against the backdrop of a global demand collapse. Problem is that China stood for 70% of Tesla profits in 2021. This will mean a complete collapse for profits.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Poor Elon
Amazing to think 6 months ago you couldn't get a Tesla and had to pay big overs if you did. 6 months from now there may be many sat in fields with big discounts available from new.
Crazy times.
On the flip, many/most companies are struggling in this climate and a reversal of fortunes will come along soon enough. Then demand and the SP will most likely go bazerk again.
Jump!
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Close enough, the low was $101.22 - but the stock caught a big subsequently and is trading at $109 now. Just another day in Tesla trading, nothing is ever too crazy. Could be the prelude to some meaningful bounce next week, unless Elno shoots himself into his feet again.
I am not going long, but looking to close my short position on any dip from here towards $107-ish.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I think the Nasdaq set the scene for the Tesla bounce yesterday with a very positive reaction to the wage/employment data. Everyone was looking for a reason to jump in. We'll see if it holds.
Indexed U.K. Gilts (INXG) down 33% in the last 12 months and down 23% in the last 4 years.
Could be an opportunity if the U.K. goes into recession and inflation eventually comes under control?
I have started a to drip feed every week for the next 12 months.
The Investment Trust 2023 handbook is currently free on a kindle
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Investment-...f_=as_li_ss_tl
Never saw that dip, ended up closing half at 112 and still short the other half.
Was up a massive profit after payrolls, and lost a bundles in the end. One of those days.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
The customers are revolting.
https://www.ft.com/content/dc1093f3-...b-efd21bb303e3
(I have a dystopian vision of well heeled Rolex customers picketing St James's following similar price cuts on their watches.)
Ahahahh brilliant. Cheers!The customers are revolting.
https://www.ft.com/content/dc1093f3-...b-efd21bb303e3
(I have a dystopian vision of well heeled Rolex customers picketing St James's following similar price cuts on their watches.)
Over night, Tesla cut prices in the US and Germany between 10% and 20%.
Pure desperation at this point. Better close one of the factories, but suppose they are worried what that would do to the stock prices.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Anyone have a link or insight to what has been driving the FTSE 100 upward trend since November?
Possibly a misplaced or otherwise sentiment that everything hasn't gone to as much sh1t as they thought
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no idea if this is the answer but my ftse 100 etf saved me last year. i believe because the dollar was seen as the only safe haven in volatile markets, and around 80% of FTSE 100 earnings are overseas (ie USD denominated).
I think you're largely right. Additionally FTSE 100 companies offer relatively attractive yields which attracted investors when other assets were suffering from soaring inflation/rate hikes.
Anyone made money on Tesla in last month ?
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No, first a small gain when I went long at $106, but then I tried to short three time on the way up, which cost a good chunk. Now am long again, but low confidence that this is going much further that where we are. Was looking for $206 today but am in doubts. Will sell if we break below $198.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Agro Whackchain continuing on its path to bankruptcy:
last week the CFO resigned, today the CEO and one of their non-executive directors. Sure it's all just a coincidence.
"Peter has created a strong foundation for Argo which is a confident organisation full of talented people, aligned behind a clear strategy and focused on delivering profitable growth and market share gains. On behalf of the Board and everyone at Argo, I would like to thank Peter for his many achievements and wish him every future success."
LOLZ.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Just made an ISA addition of a buy on SMT.
Once everyone's favourite UK Investment Trust seems now to be well out of favour trading at a 15% discount; I think the fundamentals of the fund are still sound and it has trimmed back its Chinese holdings to 9%.
Lets see how it goes ... bought at 739p
We may not be in agreement on house prices, but lets see how your judgement is on this. Took your tip and went in with a bag of sand for starters at 742p.
Good luck, although just to be clear that wasnt a tip.
Im coming after you if I dont get a lambo out of this.
You may need to invest more than a bag of sand if youre hoping for a lambo.
I am waiting for Elon's coming presentation about the launch of the new platform to produce really cheap cars. Hope that after that the stocks will go much higher.
Last edited by Owren; 2nd March 2023 at 15:24.
Same as FSD, 4680 batteries made out of table salt or the Optimus bot?
Good luck!
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I'd be suprised if it gets back near high's anytime soon. Really feel it was a bit of a Covid meme stock with a celebrity CEO that at the the time could do no wrong and was part of green bubble stocks of 2020/21 and spec tech (remember all those hydrogen and charge point stocks?). The valuation was completely divorced from reality compared with peers.
Of course I know nothing and the markets seem to behave less and less rationally so anything could happen. I would just advise caution, the volatility in even very large stocks has become crazy so needs to be closely watched.
Tesla $214
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which is exactly where it traded a good week ago?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Hovering nicely
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Might be a bit off topic, in which case I apologise. But any ideas on 15 year uk gilts and the direction they may go? I have a pension pot which I cannot release and must use to buy an annuity. Rates have improved dramatically over the last several months as they are in someway linked to the aforesaid guilts. Should I buy or should I wait...???
Way beyond my knowledge but have you spoken to anyone to see whether that is your only option now? Seems unfortunate and certainly counter to all the pensions freedom stuff.
Yes, this only has a pot value of 31k but is what is called a section 32. Has a guaranteed pension amount that's only around £30 PW so pretty useless. I'd much rather cash in but until sec32 schemes are included in pension freedom I'm stuck with buying an annuity. Good money for the annuity co cos at my age I won't be drawing the full amount unless very lucky!! :0(
EDIT: I've started a different thread in the hopes of some advice as I think question is a bit lost in this thread
Last edited by redmonaco; 19th February 2023 at 13:51.
Just doing a bit of housekeeping on my ISAs and have a question that maybe some of the better versed here can answer.
I am looking at this which tracks the MSCI World Index.
https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheet...-acc/portfolio
As you can see it is 67% USA Stocks.
An overview of the MSCI Indexes is shown below.
The top economies are listed here:
https://www.investopedia.com/insight...top-economies/
By my calculations the USA is 25% of the world economies and about 30% of those that make up the MSCI World Index.
So, I'm then thinking I must be on the weight of the various stock markets in each region.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...the%20Euronext.
or
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges
Even on that basis the US markets seem to make up about 59% of markets that make up the MSCI World Index.
So why does the MSCI World Tracker have 67% USA stocks?
Edit: It is my guess that my rough calculations are out slightly and that the USA markets make up 67% of developed global markets which is mind boggling ...
Last edited by Montello; 9th March 2023 at 15:47.
The first explanation that pops up in my head is that MSCI indices are weighted according to the free float of the underlying companies, which will result in deviations versus market cap weightings.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I had to Google Free Float ... maybe ...
I guess the biggest surprise for my from the very fag packet analysis is how huge the USA markets are compared to the US economy.
Just look at the double listings through stock and index ETF, the volume on ETFs is insane (SPX and QQQ) and then there are all the ADRs as well which are actually foreign companies listed in the US.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Where there are double listings and ADRs surely they cant double count the market caps figures that constitute the index?
Suspect the market is going to be an absolute sh*tfest on Monday with the collapse of SVP and the fear of contagion.
SVB collapsed on Thursday, the bank was ordered closed during early Friday trading. That has already contributed to the selloff from Friday. Most finance names recovered from their morning lows during late Friday trading.
The next area of cinema are unlisted startups, but since they are unlisted not sure what effect that will have on markets.
I am not optimistic about markets for the immediate future, however see no reason to see a big move on Monday in particular. There is still a chance SVB receives a bid tomorrow, even if not very likely in my view.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Higher interest rates look to be the primary blame for SVB so is this likely to affect other banks? Lots of talk banking is all a pack of cards, 2008, hold your money in cash blah blah blah or is it just a mismanaged one off bank..
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Banks usually make more profits when interest rates are high.
Banking giant HSBC says its quarterly profit has almost doubled, boosted by rising interest rates around the world.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64713967
Matt Levine's newsletter has been mentioned here before and as usual his take is very good and easy to digest.
Essentially SVB's assets were uniquely excessively exposed to fixed long term interest rates rather than loans/mortgages etc of traditional banks as there wasn't enough client demand for these products due to the nature/lack of diversity of their customer base. SVB needed to do something with these deposits to generate some money though so bought a load of long dated bonds/treasuries. These lost value as the FED hiked interest rates. At the sime time deposits were declining as the techy customer base suddenly had less access to other sources of funding and at the same time increasing overheads so needed access to their funds to keep the lights on/pay the bills. Word began to spread that things were getting a bit dodgy, more clients withdrew their deposits which meant SVB were forced to sell more of their assets to meet the withdrawals and so the spiral goes...
So it may not cause contagion as the risk profile of SVB was uniquely awful.
Well, waddya know? Elon says he's up for it.
Buying equity futures for a relief rally.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Out with a small loss, after having been up nicely earlier. Well.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
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