Reply With QuoteMonday, finally intelligent people are taking over Twitter from the weekend-shift and are commenting on the dumb "Credit Suisse is going bankrupt" posts exposing them for the brainfarts they are:
FT just summarised this morning's trading in Credit Suisse: https://archive.ph/Pp4zQ
FYI, I was expecting more of a panic move, would be a buyer in low CHF3 area. No interest around here.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Monday, finally intelligent people are taking over Twitter from the weekend-shift and are commenting on the dumb "Credit Suisse is going bankrupt" posts exposing them for the brainfarts they are:
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Stolen comment from the FT.
Folk can talk all they like about capital ratios and liquidity buffers, but what is clear is that fear is back. And ultimately markets are driven by these kind of emotions. Unfortunately, this fear isn’t disappearing anytime soon.
Hang on. I thought it was all about the maths?Originally Posted by noTAGlove
Fear will be forgotten from one day to another once we put in two good weeks on the S&P500. Every. Single. Time.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Traditionally we.dont get on ha ha
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There is a reason for that: I have an allergy against liars and people trying to take advantage of fellow forum members.
But that's just me.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I just logged on to check my (managed) pension fund - 15% down on the year so far (despite making monthly contributions)
That's a relief. Not just me then!
Dow up 5% in 24hrs
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That should pop some money back in SIPPs
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I mainly trade the US indices due to the liquidity. Looks like a temporary bounce off key support to me, we were in heavily oversold territory and some strength has come out of the dollar so not suprising (actually very nice trend days as a day trader). Will be suprised if we've established a bottom here, otherwise I'd say we're heading down to pre-covid high's at a minimum.
Think Musk is actually buying Twitter
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Sentiment tanking
TWTR is my largest position in the portfolio. Second largest is short TSLA.
Nice.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Have you got a cigar lined up?
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I stopped smoking cigars ten years ago. A nice IPA will have to do.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Closing half of my long swing positions here, I have no confidence in this rally. I remain small net short after this.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Did anyone else see yesterday the UN basically tell central banks to stop hiking rates as it is leading to a global recession? Wonder if it will be pivot time for the Fed soon.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-cal...es-11664809202
Last edited by ryanb741; 4th October 2022 at 23:48.
Sold half of my Twitter shares at $52 yesterday, but loading up the boat right now because I think Elon and Twitter will announce transaction closing after market close today (25 minutes from now). His deposition is still scheduled for tomorrow and for some reason (the pending FBI investigation?) Herr Musk seems more than uncomfortable to go ahead with it. There is only one way to avoid it: money on the table today, and why wouldn't he as he has already said he will follow through.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
UK bought 1B of crypto after the mini budget, countries with high inflation seem to be holding it up
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So US employment data....
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Whats the consensus here regarding Interest Rate rises come the next meeting on Nov 3rd in UK?
I predict a rise
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I think so. I see pound against the dollar sliding again after initial recovery
Helicopter Ben getting the Nobel prize. Can't stop laughing.
*just found this. Apt.
https://twitter.com/KennethDredd/sta...29813328437249
Last edited by Raffe; 10th October 2022 at 12:20.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Could be an interesting day ahead
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I don’t fully understand exactly what the pension funds have been up to using derivatives in the gilts market but it looks like they’ve screwed up again and we will be left holding the bag.
My understanding is they have done what they are supposed to do
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I am buying some equities here.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Yep.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
So why is the BoE having to buy up gilts to support the market to prevent the so called doom loop?
Last edited by Montello; 11th October 2022 at 09:38.
The doom loop is selling into a falling market making it worse
https://www.theguardian.com/business...arket-meltdown
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Because the government has lost the trust of the market participants and long dated gilts prices are falling.
That hurts the pension funds, they need to sell to stay within solvency ratios, which means more selling, which puts more pressure on prices, which triggers even more selling, which.....
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
That’s pretty much my understanding, which means the pensions funds have put themselves into a poor risk position that can’t cope with rapidly rising interest rates, surely that is poor management?
Last edited by Montello; 11th October 2022 at 09:38.
Can't have it both ways, they needed long term bonds to hedge against inflation and keep them liquid for the decades to come that these type of funds payout . They have had to sell to get cash for corresponding hedging , this isn't unusual and exactly what they are supposed to do. That's beyond the limit of my knowledge such as it is, they haven't screwed up, the politicians have
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This.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
By the way, how is it going over at Argo Blockchain?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Politicians always screw up; isn't that why you need clever fund managers to be able to deliver in all market conditions? To build a position that is not resilient to interest rates climbing seems like an error to me ... after a long period of historic low interest rates they were always going to revert to mean at some point, they fact that it has happened quickly is the only surprise but to develop a position that implodes if that happens seems poor to me ... the pension funds have been overly heavy on bonds for years and should have had more in equities which is better for the economy as it's investing in companies that actually create growth.
This whole situation has a nasty whiff to me; a bit like the Soros/ERM situation where the government tries to prop up a market ... someone always makes a killing in the short term as they can never fight the market for ever as they run out of money ...
No one is clever enough to forsee what happened, they haven't got crystal balls
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Understood ... but I can't help but think that some of these complex financial products they "build" are the root of the issue rather than external events.
If I was in in the business of delivering DB pension returns I would not rely on interest rates staying at historical lows ... you didn't need a crystal ball to know interest rates would rise from 0.
Last edited by Montello; 11th October 2022 at 10:58.
That's not quite the same thing as investors losing faith in the UK as quickly and as suddenly as they did
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The real question is why did they build these LDIs and how did that benefit them?
It benefitted them to hedge against inflation as they have liabilities stretching for a few more decades yet until those with final scary schemes die
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They have legal responsibilitys remember , they aren't just doing what they want all the time
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Pension funds are required to invest according to their liabilities, they have long term liabilities and need to be invested accordingly.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Noted but they have to balance their legal and client responsibilities against the need for their own share holders to make a profit.
Either way I have viewed gilts and bonds as all risk and no return for the last 3 years and sold out of all the gilts/bonds in my pension about a year ago ...
US CPI print on Thursday. Should make it an interesting gamble.
You have the luxury of only worrying about you, defined benefit schemes in this country I believe at the last count are over 2 Trillion
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Aye ... but I am not convinced why the whole population should underpin the lucky few on generous DB schemes ...
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