Originally Posted by Hood
To be fair it did sell in minutes and could have sold many time over. If it had been £9700 I still reckon it’d have sold that day.
Agreed.
It's more the psychology of when someone sees something sell for that amount they then think thats the going rate.
It isn't of course but it does make the next one if priced significantly higher a harder sell IMO.
Ah, that’s changed then but I suppose the caveat “deduction of any refurbishment work” has covered them either way!
FTFY
I’ve already scratched the bracelet so they’ve got me over a barrel already, still nevermind. 😊👍
Will get re-listed as the they all do on eBay be his mate bidding it up!
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Sorry but you are wrongFTFY
My calculation is correct
Marginal vat is calculated on the profit only
Your calculation dividing by 1.2 is used to remove the vat from normal vat transactions
Marginal vat is diffrent
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to be fair its an indicator that the market is softening when wf are offering these buy back deals.
one would have to assume that the market will soften once supply increases but it depends on what your motive is, for me if i sell my hulk its probably to replace it with another rolex so cost to change may not be that different if prices drop across the board.
So marginal VAT is 25% on the margin scheme? I don’t think so!
Edit: it would appear that you’re wrong.
https://www.gov.uk/vat-margin-schemes
VAT is always 1/5 added to your ex VAT price and 1/6 taken off your VAT included price whether you’re on the marginal scheme or not.
Except of course where VAT is 5%. Then it’s 1/20 and 1/21 respectively.
Last edited by Dave+63; 6th June 2019 at 10:55.
I stand corrected sir
I just also checked with my financial director to make sure we hadnt overpaid and he just sighed and said we have computers to work all this out for us
Oh well back the cave for me maybe i can invent fire
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Rubbish. Rolex is not increasing production, nor are they building new production facilities. They will make X number of watches each year, and sell them. It's worked for over a century. The used market will do what it does, and Rolex will basically ignore it. Throughout the company's history there have been shortages and overstocks. They got where they are by long term thinking, and sticking to their core business practices. No amount of watch forum/Youtube/blog punditry will change that.
https://watchesbysjx.com/2019/01/cha...dor-rolex.html
Or for Rolex?More intriguing are Chanel’s partners in the project. Swiss newspaper Le Temps writes that Kenissi is the “industrial arm of Tudor”. Though Kenissi is now based in Geneva, it will move to a new facility in Le Locle in 2021, where a factory about 150m long – nicknamed “Project Gemini” – is now under construction. Half the building will be for Kenissi, and the other half for Tudor, according to Le Temps.
To be fair that report in January was a self-serving statement from a dealer buying up stock.
Regardless, if Rolex double or even triple production tomorrow, there are literally hundreds if not thousands of people on THIS forum, TRF and the general public who are on “waiting lists” for stainless models (mainly genuine collectors rather than speculators on here and TRF) that the oversupply will be snapped up anyway and the status quo will remain.
Looking at it, if dealers are saying they are getting 2 BLRO a year, trebling production only makes 6 a year.... if they get 8 hulks a year, trebling production only gives them 24 hulks..... (these are the numbers a rep from Goldsmiths in the trafford center told me face-to-face) and in a time where basic stainless 114060 are hard to locate (3-6 months ish)
Maybe if demand has been satisfied (which could take years), maybe there’ll be a softening in the used/grey market but I’d wager on a price increase over that period anyway.
The reality of all this is that just like the classic car market, the prices of 5 digit subs/GMT’s etc won’t ever come back down to the levels they were (£3k-4k) even if the 6 digits availability increased so the “speculators” will just move on to those and they’ll start to shoot up. They’re not making anymore 5 digit sports models.....
I suppose that the dealers would stop buying Hulks at £9k to sell for £12k but (like Burlington arcade for example) they can’t just drop the price of their inventory to match the new market, so they’ll still be £12k and you and I could still sell our Hulk for £8 or 9k (I’m sure the retail price will be around there by then....) but it just won’t be to Watchfinder or the other companies set up on their coat-tails, it’d be directly to a collector.
Last edited by RJM25R; 7th June 2019 at 07:21.
Trouble is there’s already thousands of watches out there for sale at all the grey dealers if your pockets are deep enough. I don’t buy the “supply issue” line one bit, grey dealers paying back handers have them in stock (and probably hidden ones for when the “one in the window” sell) The only supply issue is a that the supply is being intercepted and people are being held ransom. If they did increase supply are the grey dealers going to saturate their market even more & when more grey dealers get hold, the price will drop.
What will happen is the the grey price will drop and then the people that don’t really want them (Instagram generation that just want to brag or the chap that can’t really afford the watch and has to move it on because he’s “not bonding”) won’t be desperate get hold of one as there won’t be any fuss.
The thousands of people on waiting lists are there to move them on after sadly not bonding (ie make a huge profit). The odd Joe bloggs gets thrown a bone by the AD and generally he sadly has to sell it. If the profit isn’t there these people won’t be buying, so the waiting lists would vanish.
Just think how different things could be in the near future, political changes, brexit, interest rate hike, an increase in production (that doesn’t need to happen) and the last thing on people’s mind will be a quick must have buy of a crazy overpriced Rolex. It could have a huge impact on Rolex and I’m surprised they’re upping production.
Mind you they are probably just building a new facility to produce more gold watches to sell to people for the sports watch ‘deal’.
As for the original question, RRP at most.
I have to disagree....
We’ll only know for sure in the future (and I can’t see Rolex doubling or trebling production anyway) but “RRP at most” is absolute nonsense..... Watchfinder would give more than RRP right now, advertised at £8k on eBay would sell right now, advertised on here at £9k would sell right now........
The production required to fulfill the potential customers who are sitting waiting for the RRP watches at the dealer is huge. It won’t be an overnight process
We aren’t just talking WIS on forums, we are talking about huge amounts of people who will not pay the grey price but will wait, and wait, and wait for RRP.......
This crash people are talking of will not be seismic. If it’s 20% it’ll still leave lots of headroom.....
rrp are you having a laugh. Increasing supply will take many many months to have any major impact on used values. I was told production has been increased by 5-10% over the past year, but Instagram fuelled demand has increased demand to crazy levels. London’s biggest corner shop gets on average 20 enquires a day for a Pepsi.
Only time will tell.
I was recently back in England after being away for 4 years and I was pleasantly surprised by an impromptu chat I had with an AD near where my parents live. After about 20 mins of us chatting about watches, the Rolex sales assistant realised I was a genuine enthusiast and said he could get me a Hulk within 6-8 months. He also said that if one was to phone up and ask outside of what he perceived to be his customer base/area he wouldn't be inclined to help but if you were "local", then he would definitely try to help and organise the models people wanted. I was unable to commit for a number of reasons but it gave me hope that it was possible through genuine channels and I didn't get the impression that he was making it up. He just seemed like a nice guy who knew his watches.
‘Rrp at most’? You’re on the wrong forum lol. That seems to be the line the majority of folks stick to on the Rolex forum. It’s a bizzare red line i’ve never understood. Stuff is worth what it’s worth, values will go up (hard to predict or we’d all be rich) but often, and in the case of most stuff, values go down. If it’s worth £9k to you now buy it, don’t worry too much about it. Most people on here have lost £9k on their car in the last couple of years...... that’s just a car, it gets you to work.
I had a coffee and a conversation with a fellow forum member (you know who you are) and we were talking about insuring top end high value watches. It’s not related here but the perspective is. His view was why insure it.....assuming you haven’t financed it and it’s paid for, if someone steals it, you lose it, you damage it, your life won’t change will it? It’s a watch, is not where you live. Most of us here have another watch too... so literally life goes on, just minus a watch. I really liked and admired the attitude. It was refreshing and made me think.
So if you have £9k, £12k, whatever it is sitting in a bank, sitting in the value of another watch you can sell, If you like the hulk buy it. And if (a big IF, based on second guesses and hope of some) it’s worth £2k less in a year, so what. Life won’t change one bit. You know what, it might be worth £2k more, but again life won’t change one bit.
Sorry chaps I’d got carried away and was thinking it was a “what would you pay” question. (RRP is the most I’d pay for a new Rolex as I think it’s barmy the money people will pay for these things)
The question of a fair price between enthusiasts is a ponderous one, I don’t think I’d be doing anyone a favour these days (unless they were friends or family) with a Rolex. If you had £10k in cash why would you give it to someone you don’t know on an Internet forum for £8500? I’d rather sell it for as much as I could get and give my son the extra rather than a stranger.
I get the sentiment and people want to do someone a good turn but as we see time and again with Rolex they inevitably end up being moved on with the unfortunate profit outcome. My feeling is don’t try and do people favours, stick it up for market value and if someone makes an offer then so be it. If you don’t like the idea of profiteering from it then it’s a perfect chance to donate to the fundraiser.
Of course people will disagree but my feeing is if they can spend £8k-£10k on a mass produced watch then they don’t exactly need handouts do they.
My apologies. My friend who works in a senior leadership role at Rolex in Asia must be mistaken.
Last edited by ryanb741; 7th June 2019 at 13:07.
It could be that with larger stock quantity available they may try releasing the more sought after models in batches "on certain dates at specifically chosen locations", in the manner of Adidas/Kayne West.
Just out of interest what was the extent of the facts he shared in regard to enhanced production please Ryan?
Personally I just don't see it happening as Rolex run a rather unique "business model" (i.e. they aren't one....) which in turn gives them no real reason to produce more product. I suspect they are very happy with their current numbers, range mix and supply agreements so that suits them just fine.........and I would wager they really don't give a fig what AD's and customer's might want in respect of buying sought after watches in shorter time frames.
However IF it was to come to fruition it would take a little heat out of the Rolex market but certainly not any time soon and we really won't go backwards in time to when everything (or most of the range) was freely available/in the window/short (ish) lead times and at list price. Just my 2p's worth.
Appreciate its not Rolex relevant but i was in an AD today and the store Manager I know told me that his Tudor rep had advised him last month to expect an increase in supply over the next few months i.e. the Tudor GMT, 58 etc.
I really cannot believe Rolex or any of there AD's are happy when there window displays are empty yet the grey dealer next door have a windows full of over priced watches.
It's a 'she' btw :)
It is happening. Omega are discombobulating them in key Asia casual markets because if you go into an AD to buy a Sub and you can't, well there's plenty of Asian celebrities sponsored to wear a Seamaster or Planet Ocean so they buy that. Problem with Rolex is Asia is it is no longer a status symbol. Patek is. Just like in Asia Louis Vuitton is a secretary's handbag - Hermes and Chanel are for the big girls. So people aren't going to hang around on a list for a Sub because it isn't the status symbol it once was and the Asian market is all about status symbols. So for a day to day watch there ain't much difference between Rolex and Omega.
Massive clamour for SS Patek in Asia but that's a different kettle of fish altogether
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I want one!
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Ryan,
Would it stand to reason, using your analogies above, that any increase of manufacture would make its way to the Asian market, so have little if any effect on our markets?
From reading posts online its not just Europe and Asia that are in short supply, the likes of Frederico and Archie talk of shortages in the US Canada and Australia. Any increased production will only initially reduce leadtimes in these regions. I sense the time when you can walk into an AD and buy a SS Rolex is still very much in the future if at all.
Thanks for the heads up Ryan, not many of us get a glimpse as to what these brands are planning and developing
Steve
This is true. There is huge pent up demand and whilst Rolex have encouraged to a certain degree a level of difficulty in obtaining their watches (so as to essentially increase prices as people are paying RRP even for 2 tone stuff now) the issue is that other brands (namely Omega in Asia) are highly regarded and in plentiful stock and Rolex are losing market share despite selling pretty much all of their inventory as Omega are able to sell more stock. So when Rolex increase production it will go to satisfy this pent up demand. Won't mean you can buy a BLNR as a walk in yet but it may do so in a couple of years as the pent up demand gets satisfied. The issue Rolex have currently is that a ton of Chinese middle class people have now bought Omegas due to Rolexes being unavailable and that's given a huge boost to Omega and its status in Asia as most middle class Chinese watch buyers wont know about a BLNR or a Hulk they will walk into an AD and see the Rolexes available which will be the stuff nobody buys and will be uninspiring and then they turn to the Omega counter (as Omega is a 'safe' choice as a load of Chinese actors and actresses are promoting the brand) and lo and behold a ton of Planet Oceans, Seamasters, Ceramic stuff etc is available. I'm sure if a Sub had been available as a walk in then that's a tough competition but now we are comparing a 2 tone datejust against a Ceramic Omega Chronograph and you can see why the buyer goes for the Omega.
So by getting to a stage where there are more of the nicer Rolexes available to buy Rolex can maintain market share in a growing Chinese middle class of which an additional 250m are expected to become middle class in the next 3 years. Imagine an extra 250m people in your target demographic. Best get making some more watches hey
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Last edited by ryanb741; 8th June 2019 at 20:26.
To answer the original question.... Looking at the sale today on SC, it would appear a well worn example will move on at around £10k.
Rolex has streamlined the GMT2 product line, and they didn't do it for lack of demand. Why then? To increase production efficiency. Why do that unless the plan is to use the decreased set up times to increase production?
Indeed that's the case. I used to read posts on here about London availability, shake my head, and think "never in the US". It's crazy here now too.
I can understand a production capacity change to accommodate the rising middle classes of Asia, which is a systemic change, but I don't think that will filter over to Western markets very much as I'm sure their view is still that our markets are prone to the ups and downs of the economy, even tho I feel Social Media's explosion has meant the change over here is pretty systemic as well, and a new normal will be established maybe halfway between pre-Brexit levels and now even if economies suffer, don't think a recession will take us back to those levels.
That £1600 then becomes £1280 if you take off 20%tax on profit !
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If you read the rest of the thread, peoples answers are generally between £8k - £10k.Hi,
What would be a fair price for a 10/2013 Hulk?
Full set, good condition.
And I mean a fair price between watch enthusiasts.
The dealer prices seem to be all over the place.
Thank you for your input.
That is a huge growing market, even if 1% of those middle class bought your product that is still 2.5 million watches, plus you get the future servicing and possible life long customers.
I can understand why Omega have pushed their brand in Asia..
I think 9k to 10k is fair at the moment. I noticed Jewelwork in Worthing have one in.
How have Rolex “streamlined the GMT2 product line” please? As I see it (and very happy to be shown where I’m perhaps wrong) there are more, not less, models in that model line than ever before?
One just sold on SC for £10k so that’s surely the level for a complete set in good condition....
Taking into account the exchange rate and the price of the Hulk that just sold on SC, I'd say you would have gotten a good deal if you had bought that particular example. A quick scout around the internet suggests that, at the moment, a £10k Hulk is a good buy.Hi,
What would be a fair price for a 10/2013 Hulk?
Full set, good condition.
And I mean a fair price between watch enthusiasts.
The dealer prices seem to be all over the place.
Thank you for your input.
WF had 3 at the weekend a 2018 @ £13950, I’ve just opened up the page again and it’s now sold. 2 available now at £13950 and £14950. Crazy!!
Glad I’ve kept mine for now.
Don't really mean much what they list prices at ...get a quote off them you will get a shock at the difference in what they list and your offer
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Currently offering £9000
That is my point, so dont make no sense posting what they list at!
As watchfinder is the only company that take all the watches no one wants to buy and residual value is not great in trade against something worth keeping and holds its value. Also to top it off do finance to boot on the difference if needed.
I would love to know how people actually go spent 14k on a hulk with no trades or finance ?
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Are those the 3 that z sayub sold to them?
Agreed. Think I’d be taking there list prices with a pinch of salt,
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I’m not going to read any more threads about the price/availability of Rolex watches. It’s just become too much.....probably won’t be much else to look at, but there you go.
I quite like Rolex but have no real intention of buying one again. I read all these threads with a mix of smug schadenfreude and a bizarre sort of fascinated ennui, if that's not contradictory. Doesn't speak too well for my character, I know, but, for the moment, I can't kick the habit!
Just spoke to Mappin and Webb, Bluewater, Kent about my ‘registration of interest’ for the Hulk. I was told a to expect a minimum 5-year wait; you’ve got to laugh ha!ha! 😅
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