I'm certainly not, I'm wearing one that's excellent and it's 28 years old. But I also don't think it's that difficult in 2018, for the worlds most advanced manufacturing nation to reproduce one identically.Originally Posted by Belligero
It's hardly Rocket science.
Agreed, it's not rocket science, but to make it worth tooling up to produce there would need to be some assurance of volume and profits. ETA clones have been around for several years, but the numbers involved will be bigger.
I`m not aware that anyone's cloned a free-sprung balance movement yet, but that's not to say it can`t be done.
Paul
Yes but the question is not 'can they reproduce one identically' but 'can they reproduce one identically for the cost of a cheap fake'.
I'm sure it's possible to reverse engineer and recreate a Rolex movement almost perfectly. I'm not sure its possible to do that for the price that people are willing to pay for a fake watch. Maybe in another 10 years...
Double post
Last edited by OliverD; 19th January 2018 at 17:13. Reason: Double post
The fakes are certainly getting closer. Here's one that was sent to us at Watchfinder that we did a comparison video with: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_ZTqC2Yxxs
Ooooh, I didn’t know we had a WF rep on the forum :)
and they’re watching you... 24/7.
Without wanting to re-open the debate about value, to undercut Rolex hugely, they only have to be able to reproduce the movement and then not charge for Rolex's many other costs, such as R&D, design, marketing, dealer markup, service network, taxes, cost of running a business based in Switzerland etc.. The actual cost of the movement will be a fraction of the final price. This means there will always be a margin for the fakers to exploit, even if the original has a completely reasonable profit margin. This would apply even more to fakes of valuable vintage pieces, which would be easier to reverse engineer as the movements are simpler and use 40 year old technology. In a sense, a Sellita is already a reverse engineered ETA movement, which is not an issue as the patents ran out long ago. It should be possible to do the same with the JLC 920 caliber that's the basis of famous watches like the RO jumbo and Nautilus. Decorating it is another matter of course, but where there's a will (and a profit margin), there's probably a way. Considering that it's now possible to 3D print paintings with incredible levels of accuracy, down to the individual brush strokes, it's can't be long before a 'hand finished' decorated movement can be recreated too.
Computers are obsoleting so many trades and professions from truck drivers to artists, engineers to scientists.
Do we not generally know the common sense "rules" to best avoid exposure to fakes - buy the seller, use AD or reputable bricks and mortar establishments if in doubt so as to offer protection etc
I don't know of anyone who has shelled out £8k or similar for a fake Rolex, anyone on the forum done so?
Above said in the certain agreement that fakes of all prestige brands are getting very good, but I think an intention to buy a genuine one can be reasonably safe guarded, just as an intention to buy a fake one can no doubt be easily achieved.
I don't disagree with any of this. I just think that the base price once you take out all the things above is still too high.
It doesn't matter if it's cheaper than a Rolex, it has to be within the price bracket that people who buy fake watches want to pay (which is what, under £500?) and I don't think that's possible yet.
Good luck with getting someone on here to admit something like that...
....can you imagine the fall out that would occur?
Are these new fakes all the same model or do the counterfeiters do the complete range? I'd guess they're mostly Subs but it'd be interesting to hear what's been found so far. I quite fancy a Milgaus at some point and I'm hoping it's too unpopular to be worth faking.
Sent from my iPad using TZ-UK mobile app
I know of at least five in the trade who have lost amounts of that magnitude to sellers of the Audemars and Rolex fakes so far, yes.
While some might be season ticket holders at Half-Arsed United, others make at least some effort not to be caught out. There will be many others again who have been caught out but have not realised as much or have chosen to keep the failure to themselves.
Most frightening perhaps is that I can think of many more who would fail to identify the watch I saw last week or anything like it. There will be some expensive losses this year or - worse, of course - bad watches resold to trusting retail clients.
All such successes encourage the baddies to more and greater efforts.
Haywood
Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 19th January 2018 at 21:00.
...but would they know if they had??? If the fakes can be that good, then its possible (probable??) that even people on here could be fooled....at least until they send it to Rolex for a service.
You would think if it was their core business and given the sums involved they would keep up to speed. Appreciate the resident expert or owner can't be present for each transaction but either put some escalation process above a certain transaction value in place or suffer from time to time I guess. I would also imagine that those that present these watches for sale to the trade do give off an aura that the experienced trade buyer would sniff out - you know, something just ain't right. Not seen much in the way of experienced private buyers (TZ members ?) caught out down the chain?
I remember reading about “high quality” fakes a few years ago which cost in excess of £1000.
There are threads on here somewhere discussing quality of the green sapphire as being one way to spot a fake Milgauss; the genuine article is green glass whilst the fake is a green coating.
Do you know of any ? Not saying it's unknown and one clearly is too many but I suspect it's rare for someone genuinely interested in Rolex and other brands who do their due diligence before purchase. I suspect we are getting concerned for a population that by and large is not the watch enthusiast.
Wrong!
https://www.gumtree.com/p/watches/ro...ss-/1282396130
https://www.gumtree.com/p/watches/sw...men/1282300288 (Cheeky so and so using a Rolex image)
https://www.gumtree.com/p/watches/ne...nt-/1283435462
Last edited by David_D; 19th January 2018 at 21:28.
There have been a few comments on here to the effect of : 'it will cost to much to re-create accurately and go above the budget of someone in the market for a fake watch'. But I think it has moved on from that focus. These are not being made for them, it's being made to fool people in the market for a real watch or fool pre-owned 'specialists' (as HW said maybe to much faith is put in them). If it costs £1,000 to make but you can move it on for £4,000 I'm sure that will be seen as a worth while investment from the crooks.
I wonder what material is used on the dials... I can't imagine they'd invest in white gold?
But the set up costs must be huge so the scale of the operation must be significant to recoup the initial costs of reverse engineering and set-up.... these are not produced in ones or twos ... must be many thousands ...
But surely the OP demonstrates thats where we are at?
They don't need to reproduce them for the cost of a 'cheap fake' if they can get several thousand pounds for them on eBay and un-educated used dealers.
Exactly my thoughts Chris... these are aimed at the watch enthusiast end of the market now trying to save a few hundreds of pounds in the pre-owned market, not at the tourist thinking that's good enough for a hundred quid to show off down the pub.
So basically aimed at eBay, forums (both photos) and lazy/no knowledge watch emporiums (hands on)
There has been loads of comments here and elsewhere on the forum over the years about doing the deal at an AD for authenticity... I've always wondered what's in it for the AD and why would they be bothered to get involved in a private deal?!
Quite ... but its a nightmare isn’t it ...
Last edited by Montello; 20th January 2018 at 13:02.
If the brand insisted the AD get involved for a registration change with authenticity verification, and can charge a small fee for it, then it would happen.
Yeah maybe. I guess we'll wait and see if it becomes a problem. I think it's possible to get too worried about these things. At present we have no evidence that this is happening.
If I had to bet I would be far more worried about this becoming a problem in the vintage market. As we saw from that solo daytona the other day, a tiny change can make the difference of £100k. Much more profitable
Pardon?
We were having a conversation about whether there would shortly be a new generation of 'super fakes' that had accurate replicas of Rolex movements.
I was saying that at present we haven't seen any fakes that would fool an expert purchaser such as yourself so we will have to wait and see if that becomes a possibility.
Er.....see your post 477.
This is what you actually quoted : "They don't need to reproduce them for the cost of a 'cheap fake' if they can get several thousand pounds for them on eBay and un-educated used dealers."
It was in direct comment on the above quotation that you wrote "At present we have no evidence that this is happening."
Hence my "Pardon?"
Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 20th January 2018 at 14:34.
If it does how will we know?
Rocket Science is easy, it's just an application of Newton's 3rd law of motion. Action & reaction are equal & opposite. Rocket Engineering, on the other hand, is more difficult.I'm certainly not, I'm wearing one that's excellent and it's 28 years old. But I also don't think it's that difficult in 2018, for the worlds most advanced manufacturing nation to reproduce one identically.
It's hardly Rocket science.
If you look at post 473 you can see that Chris was responding to my earlier post about whether it would be cost effective to create exact replicas of the movement rather than the mere cosmetic changes they make at the moment.
I wasn't attempting to disagree with your account that the current generation of fakes have already fooled plenty.
Splendid. Carry on!
Can't believe what this post has caused.....not sure if pleased or not!
Well, if it helps even one person to avoid buying one of these things it will have been worth it I think!
You are only 14 posts from matching the 500 responses to the AD kept the guarantee card thread.
Amazing how these threads take off.
I just saw the news about the potential bridge between UK and France and it reminded me of this thread. A longer bridge has been built in China so whilst it is possible they reckoned with the safety standards, labour costs, taxes etc it would cost 10 x to build per mile between UK and France.
Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
Surely it should be possible for Rolex to create a publicly searchable owner’s database, at least for watches from here on. A password would accompany the serial number, and could be used to verify ownership, in a similar way to verifying an online banking transaction, so no names would need to appear online. On verifying sale of the watch, the new owner would receive a new password.
The system might not be entirely foolproof, with issues such as lost passwords, but it would be a lot better than what we have now. Owners would be reassured that the watches would keep their value, as they would be able to prove history and ownership. Supporting the secondary market in this way would actually benefit Rolex themselves. It would not even require a huge amount of admin, as you could create a distributed app that could handle the entire thing through a blockchain. DeBeers have already announced something similar for diamonds, see here. It should also be possible to make each watch uniquely identifiable by more advanced means than a serial number.
Last edited by Itsguy; 21st January 2018 at 13:16.
Rocket engineering is mostly plumbing
Dave
Rolex do something positive, something which doesn't involve extracting the maximum of spondulicks from customers while treating them like ginger stepchildren. What colour is the sky where you live?
The sky is 100% grey since you ask, with snow falling out of it. I suppose they could charge an irritating administration fee for each transfer of ownership - whatever amount is slightly more than is comfortable for such a service! But then the whole thing starts to break down as people have a reason not to register.
Last edited by Itsguy; 21st January 2018 at 14:09.
The worst they can be accused of is being fiercely protective of their brand. Though they're obviously not fond of speculators, I find that they treat legitimate normal customers very well.
If you want a real example of an outfit that treats its clients as so many sheep to be fleeced, consider Richemont.
Just spat my coffee over my keyboard LOL
Rolex is in the business of selling new watches. They offer a foolproof way for you to buy them. They then offer decent after sales service. Rolex isn't in the "help guys buy used watches business".
The most certainly are, the strength of the pre-owned market is one of their main selling points.
It shouldn't be that hard actually...didn't I read a post on here that Swiss border staff check the authenticity of suspicious looking Rolexs worn by people entering the country, more or less instantaneously?? (Fakes being illegal in Switzerland)
If they value their brand and its pre owned market they could do a lot more to protect it.
They clearly dont.
Which is something that they pretty clearly don't care about. They're not Patek running around bidding up all their stuff at auction. In fact, they've been ruining their vintage watches for the last 30 years with their service centers! In Rolex's perfect world we buy a bunch of new stuff from ADs and then pay them tons of money to maintain it. At no point does people buying and selling on forums enter that picture.
Last edited by JP Chestnut; 21st January 2018 at 19:17.
If fakes destroyed confidence in the used market, they would also destroy one of the main selling points for new Rolex, the idea that they keep their value. So in future, it may benefit Rolex to have a register. I can see the argument that they just deal with new watches, but in the same way that they need a service network, they also need a functioning secondary market, and they very much don’t need a price crash in used models.
Fakes have been around for years and the used market is as strong as it ever was.
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