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Thread: Will the Rolex price bubble burst?

  1. #1
    Master
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    Will the Rolex price bubble burst?

    With the continual increase of Rolex values beyond retail prices, can we foresee a time when the bubble will burst, or do we think they will rise for ever?

  2. #2
    Master
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    Yes no maybe.

  3. #3
    Master
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    You might want to use the search function. This may have been discussed before

  4. #4
    Master RJM25R's Avatar
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    Yes, no, maybe?

  5. #5
    Just some are being sold above retail, the rest aren't.

    So if you mean 'Will demand for some Rolex models continue to outstrip supply?', then I hope it continues, as it means they're putting out belters that people enjoy.

  6. #6
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    The ones that I have sold will definitely continue to keep climbing in price as will the ones that I want.

    The ones that I am not interested in will probably stabilise or even be offered at a discount.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Tiny View Post
    With the continual increase of Rolex values beyond retail prices, can we foresee a time when the bubble will burst, or do we think they will rise for ever?
    I think we have an artificial bubble in the UK right now due to exchange rates. This means those abroad that have a chance to buy in the UK, will do so as it’s the cheapest market. Once the currency recovers or Rolex put up UK prices, I think you will see things go back to how they were before.

    On top of the above, Rolex control supply very well indeed to protect the brand and the customers investment. They will never stop doing this or turn themselves into an Omega as they don’t need to. This means Rolex will always hold their value unless there is a significant economic downturn, which I believe is maybe only two or three years away.

  8. #8
    Master
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    All bubbles burst, that's why they are bubbles. The interesting question is.....when will it burst. And no-one knows.

  9. #9
    Craftsman
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    Also depends if you are talking new or vintage. Certainly seen some softening of prices on the 50th anniversary SD of late but the every time we see a nice 5513 hit sales corner the prices continue to surprise. Rolex will continue to produce the current models in large volumes as the Chinese and Russian middle class populations expand but there are only a finite number of "vintage" watches out there.

  10. #10
    Apprentice
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    Unlikely

  11. #11
    Grand Master number2's Avatar
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    China, Russia, India, South America, all probable growth areas of the next few years, no one plays the game better than Rolex.
    "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

    'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.

  12. #12
    Grand Master Dave+63's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    All bubbles burst, that's why they are bubbles. The interesting question is.....when will it burst. And no-one knows.
    The more pertinent question is “is it actually a bubble at all”?

    If it is then it will undoubtedly burst at some point. Personally, I don’t think that it is and expect prices to remain fairly stable or continue to climb, albeit more slowly.

  13. #13
    Craftsman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    The ones that I have sold will definitely continue to keep climbing in price as will the ones that I want.

    The ones that I am not interested in will probably stabilise or even be offered at a discount.
    Never a more true thing said in jest

    As I am in the same boat

    Just replaced my LV I bought for 4K that I sold to a friend for £4500

    For only £8000. GENIUS 😃

  14. #14
    Grand Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave+63 View Post
    The more pertinent question is “is it actually a bubble at all”?

    If it is then it will undoubtedly burst at some point. Personally, I don’t think that it is and expect prices to remain fairly stable or continue to climb, albeit more slowly.
    Agreed.
    Easy to dismiss as bubbles but there will always be collectors and good older steel numbers are never going to increase. That's your lot and people are going to continue to pay for them. Well through the nose in some cases.

  15. #15
    Journeyman
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    No such thing as a bubble, just supply and demand.
    Will prices increase/decrease? There is nobody alive with even a vague idea. Anyone who claims that they know is just guessing. Rolex's are subject to exactly the same market forces as everything else.
    I don't know the inner workings of Rolex, but if I had a desirable luxury brand I would think that restricting supply to create a clamour for the goods and then releasing a lot at one time (knowing they'd all sell and make £££££ profit) wouldn't be a bad idea. Certainly if you were intending to sell the company (I have no idea if they would). That isn't a prediction or a guess, just a pondering.
    One thing I do know is that Rolex do not restrict supply in order to protect owners investments.
    Last edited by dobbsie; 15th December 2017 at 18:38.

  16. #16
    Craftsman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lawbreaker5000 View Post
    Never a more true thing said in jest

    As I am in the same boat

    Just replaced my LV I bought for 4K that I sold to a friend for £4500

    For only £8000. GENIUS 😃
    This is a reflection of almost everything I have bought and will ever buy. Especially watches :-)

  17. #17
    Craftsman
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    but what will burst first, rolex or bitcoin? ;)

    - - - Updated - - -

    but what will burst first, rolex or bitcoin? ;)

  18. #18
    Master
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    Just keep some funds locked away for when it does so you are in a position to make the most of it.

  19. #19
    Master blackal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by verv View Post
    Agreed.
    Easy to dismiss as bubbles but there will always be collectors and good older steel numbers are never going to increase. That's your lot and people are going to continue to pay for them. Well through the nose in some cases.

    But - paying what is the market rate for a desirable out-of-production model, which differs significantly from current models - makes more sense than this premium on a current model.

    The ‘classic’ model should still be desirable if the currrent designs start to lose appeal with many - when every Tom, Dick and Harry - either buy them or buy copies (sorry - “homages”)

    I can see the day when a BLNR is seen as being ‘common as muck’........ in the UK.

  20. #20
    Grand Master
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    Once something else comes out that replaces it, sure.
    Then there will be market rates and arm long wait lists for that.
    Then if the blnr was discontinued in favour of shiny new thing, where do you think the prices would go?

    The sub has been copied for years.
    Still not easy to walk into an AD and get one instantly.
    Last edited by verv; 15th December 2017 at 19:23.

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by blackal View Post
    But - paying what is the market rate for a desirable out-of-production model, which differs significantly from current models - makes more sense than this premium on a current model.

    The ‘classic’ model should still be desirable if the currrent designs start to lose appeal with many - when every Tom, Dick and Harry - either buy them or buy copies (sorry - “homages”)

    I can see the day when a BLNR is seen as being ‘common as muck’........ in the UK.
    It was launched in 2013, how many more years will it take?

  22. #22
    Master
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    'Tiny' is a very naughty boy. He just loves winding everyone up. Makes a break from the great self-control of his real life.

  23. #23
    I do think prices are artificially inflated due to models being held back by stores.
    I was in Fraser Hart on the way home this evening to look at an Oyster Perpetual, I was discussing watches in general and explained I was very fond of the ND Sub I have currently and then mentioned I used to have a Seadweller and was currently in the market for a Explorer 1.
    The sales assistance asked would I like to try both on, she explained then were out back and normally reserved for customers who are known to them but she wanted to make a sale and was happy to let me try or purchase one or both.
    So off she went out back and returned with both an Explorer and a Seadweller. I tried both and neither were to my liking being really big in comparison to what I had, I have to say though both felt lovely on the wrist.
    I left the store thinking that as lovely as they are the older models just seem more appealing in some way.

  24. #24
    Master blackal's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montybaber View Post
    It was launched in 2013, how many more years will it take?

    As the Rolex/Tudor dealer in Winchester said to my late father, when he asked if he should be expecting to return my mother’s Tudor many more times - for repair.........

    ”Sir - we are horologists, not astrologists...... We cannot predict the future”

    (in a nutshell - I don’t know)

    Al

  25. #25
    Master
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    Unlike the stockmarket, prices will fall much more slowly than they rise so it is a much better and safer bet, which will mean the boom will sustain itself for a while unless a major black swan arrives, like Rolex really vamping up production.

  26. #26
    Grand Master
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    The vintage Subs, SDs etc will always command big prices, but if the market cools I`d expect the lesser quality examples to drop in price. The really good examples will always sell well, it's the less god stuff that would struggle.

    As for the current models that are hard to source, Rolex only ned to turn the tap open a tad to redress that. The situation in the UK is influenced by the weak £, if the £ strengthens by 10% I think the situation will alter significantly. As a forum of enthusiasts it's easy to forget that very few people actually wish to buy a Rolex for several £K, it is a minority appeal but at present demand outstrips supply. That could change.

    Personally I think the prices have reached an insane level, more than doubling over 10-11 years. I just don`t see the demand for expensive watches being sustainable, I can see the overall market shrinking. However, Rolex are pretty good at staying ahead of the game and I guess we could see a return to more supply and discounting.....who knows?

    I would never treat watches as an investment in the strictest sense, I don`t mind owning a few provided they're eating nowt, that's good enough for me, but I`d never rely on the values continuing to rise.

    Paul

  27. #27
    Grand Master Andyg's Avatar
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    I have been collecting Rolex for 30 years and the bubble has not bust yet. Some years it does expand quite as much as others but it still expands.

    The only way I can still it reducing (on newer models) would be an over supply of models, or some sort of scandal I.e. Rolex have been using slave labour in their Chinese factory which devalues to brand

    As for the vintage models (4 or 5 number models), no chance. These have become almost like a new cyber currency - high value, limited numbers and easy to move between countries under the radar. Plus they are lovely things to own and becoming harder and harder to find.

    Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
    Friedrich Nietzsche


  28. #28
    Master -Ally-'s Avatar
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    The only way is up with Rolex...
    Last edited by -Ally-; 16th December 2017 at 09:26.

  29. #29
    Master
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    It seems that once a model is discontinued, it assumes almost mythical status and the price jumps accordingly.

    The SDc is the most recent example. Dealers had them aplenty, people weren’t willing to pay the premium over a sub, then Rolex announce they’re discontinuing it and suddenly the world went, and continues to go, mad for them.

    ‘Tis a crazy bubble we live in!

  30. #30

    Quote Originally Posted by verv View Post
    Agreed.
    Easy to dismiss as bubbles but there will always be collectors and good older steel numbers are never going to increase. That's your lot and people are going to continue to pay for them. Well through the nose in some cases.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave+63 View Post
    The more pertinent question is “is it actually a bubble at all”?

    If it is then it will undoubtedly burst at some point. Personally, I don’t think that it is and expect prices to remain fairly stable or continue to climb, albeit more slowly.

    Agreed.

  31. #31
    Master
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    After Rolex discontinues parts for the older movements and references, which might not be too long, then prices may take a hit once the market realises it. People are still paying big money for old tudors though but parts are quickly running out for them.

  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    All bubbles burst, that's why they are bubbles. The interesting question is.....when will it burst. And no-one knows.


    🤦🏼*♂️

  33. #33
    Master aldfort's Avatar
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    Nobody can actually answer the question.

    As other have said not sure it's a bubble although the lack of availability of sports models in the UK is keeping all 2nd hand values buoyant. However if you "cash out" it'll only cost you more to get back in (probably).

  34. #34
    Craftsman
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    is it even a bubble? yes prices have increased a lot, but has happened gradually. Ok there are some very inflated prices around certain models, but overall as a brand I don't think its going anywhere any time soon, especially in the vintage market.

  35. #35
    Master
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    No...

  36. #36
    Master
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    I'd be thrilled if they did. I'd lose some money but be able to buy more watches that I want at a reasonable price. All you can do is buy what you can HONESTLY afford and then enjoy wearing it.

  37. #37
    Craftsman
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    I saved for a looooong time to be able to.get my lv sub. In the time I started saving to actually buying the prices just kept getting higher. It does make it all the more satisfying to own though. However my dreams of getting a sky dweller and Daytona to compete my ultimate trio will surely remain just that.

    I'll never sell so have zero care for bubbles.

  38. #38
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by D4RK1 View Post
    I saved for a looooong time to be able to.get my lv sub. In the time I started saving to actually buying the prices just kept getting higher. It does make it all the more satisfying to own though. However my dreams of getting a sky dweller and Daytona to compete my ultimate trio will surely remain just that.

    I'll never sell so have zero care for bubbles.
    I don't see the skydweller going anywhere but down.

  39. #39
    Craftsman
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    it would to have a massive hit to fall into my price range sadly.

  40. #40
    Master
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    Let's take this seriously for a second and assume there is a bubble. Clearly the smart thing to do is to sell all those lovely, unobtainable vintage pieces now and buy them back later when they're cheaper.

    Any takers? Thought not. Which is why there isn't a bubble, or at least not until people stop liking watches and luxury stops feeling so desirable.

    I suppose I do wish I'd sold the lot to buy Bitcoins a year or two back though. I'd miss them of course... from my yacht. So much for watches as investments.

  41. #41
    Craftsman
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    I see this as something which will levelnoff a little after Christmas but no crash is imminent. Bit coins on the other hand....! Investing in something so volatile is a stupid idea unless you are really plugged into the market.

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