Reply With QuoteI'm a strong believer that his vehicles will take over our perception of what motoring is about, however the world (UK especially) simply isn't geared up for this concept yet
Tesla has just revealed its plans for a truck, now called the BAMF (for you to figure what it stands for...)
https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/16/...c-self-driving
Some data from the 'net:
0-100 km/hr: 5 sec when empty
500 mile/800 km radius. Fast charging 600km in 30 mins.
drive train life span: 1.6 mln kms / 1 mln miles
Game changer?
Menno
I'm a strong believer that his vehicles will take over our perception of what motoring is about, however the world (UK especially) simply isn't geared up for this concept yet
Last edited by Franky Four Fingers; 18th November 2017 at 09:13.
I liked it and thought that it might be a game changer ever since I first saw and heard about it... Then again, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that this is what the future looks like and he simply decided to have an early start by investing in all of these projects rather than wait for others to start first. Good but obvious move!
This guy is indeed a pioneer of all sorts of things that will shape our future more or less.
That being said, his auto projects haven't always had the best success and it's been quite a bumpy ride for him. I'm curious to see how the semi will fare. I think it would work well in Europe since it's a small continent and the distance between places of interest is smaller than on other continents.
Originally Posted by Franky Four Fingers
We shouldn't forget that for all the nice looking vehicles, that Tesla loses money hand over fist and sells a tiny amount of vehicles. I expect in a couple of years, when the expressible market is bigger, between them the big players just wipe him out. Having said that, the big leap isn't electric, it's AV and he's been beat by other companies on that one.
I was at an industry event last week and the big change for the car industry wasn't electric (most are already doing it and are working it into their product lines) but working out what happens to their existing very successful financing arms when people stop buying cars on mass and just use AVs as and when on PAYG contacts (similar to but quite the same as a taxi). Also for various reasons, they expect trucks to be replaced first then personal cars.
Last edited by Alansmithee; 17th November 2017 at 09:08.
I think we're a long leap from autonomy, the tech is there but changing the perception of millions of users is going to be the big issue. Look at the battle amazon are having with its drone delivery-upscale that a thousand fold with the traffic on the roads, pedestrians and the obvious glitches, I'll be long dead when that occurs.
AV vehicles will surely still be electrical driven?
I thought that - I was originally thinking that they would be common around 2040 or so in the west but all the conversations I had last week now makes me think that say 2030 is more realistic. That is not they will replace all driver vehicles at that point but that will be so common that people will not give them a second glance. The reason is that machine learning tends to be good at something for a bit and then the skill level simply ramps. The other reason I think it will be sooner rather than later is that all major disruptions always appears to be decades out and then are just here - this feels like that.
Who is going to buy these trucks without Tesla subsidising them so heavily they make an even bigger loss than they already are?
In terms of cars I prefer Gordon Murray's idea of a very strong exoskeleton with plastic body panels to keep out the rain and make the car/van aerodynamic, extremely light weight, small turbocharged/supercharged petrol engines, very clever use of space and construction in small efficient factories where it's needed, not in large inefficient factories with big transport costs. Petrol isn't necessarily dead yet but weight is the big enemy.
New technology with old manufacturing ideas (build car virtually the same way but with big heavy batteries)? Not sure it should work that way.
I think the Chinese may well surprise us very soon with their car industry and advanced technology. And I don't just mean with the likes of Volvo (and Polestar).
"A man of little significance"
Looks like a game changer to me - I have to say though, the generation 2 roadster is the real exciting one for me - to achieve what they have with this (1.9s to 60 and 250mph top end) they MUST be using a new battery chemistry, and that's the real game changer...
Yup that roadster is seriously impressive! 600 mile range in such a small form factor. Pretty much ends range anxiety debate.
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I think they're interesting but we need a solid future for power generation to support them and it's just not there.
Yea it will take quite a bit of infrastructure for all the megachargers. Unfortunately we're not blessed with much sunshine..
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Time for Spandex jackets
During a recent trip to Amsterdam loads of Tesla taxis and tons of electric cars charging by the side of the street.
I think these concepts are incredible, but have any running examples been proven yet? Also, I mean this genuinely as a complete fool when it comes to this sort of tech, but is electric the way to go with the way the energy is created? I can understand solar if it was possible, as that's a free resource but when people talk about Tesla, they seem to only talk about numbers, whether it's 0-60 times, top speeds, range etc. Nobody seems to mention whether it's actually a viable source of fuel for the future of the planet. If it's not, and it's just temporary, then is there much point?
Indeed. The taxing for electric taxis is very 'friendly'. On other cars and non-taxis, the low tax brackets have ended and things are back to normal. When the latest edition of the Volvo XC90 with a hybrid engine was unveiled, Dutch dealers sold the allocated amount of hybrids within 2 days. This year (higher taxes) they sold no hybrids. Not a single one.
Only full electrics gain the advantage of a lower tax bracket - hence the Tesla taxis.
As a sidestep: here's a link I've posted before about a 50s electric van. A deveriate of the milk float as we know it.
https://www.autoblog.com/2015/01/29/...-van-restored/
Musk talks a good game but his predictions are way off the mark with regard to production levels and timescale .He is already well behind in his 5000 a week Tesla production.His hyperloops are another fantasy and don't get me started on his trips to mars in a few years .As someone else said the big boys will take over the electric car scene soon ,but we need a huge change in infrastructure to move away from furled cars and these projects are always years behind schedule and billions over budget
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Tesla are staying ahead of the game though by making life easier for Tesla owners. There is a Welcome Break service station seven miles from my house with eight Tesla superchargers there. Any main stream electric vehicle will have to make do with just one of two slower ecotricity chargers.
Grantham?
It’s the ideal stop off point for me when I go up to Yorkshire to see my parents.
With those super chargers there I could possibly get away with a 60kwhr battery rather than a larger one.
Just need the cash to buy the car in the first place!
In my book, Musk is heading for a place next to names as Edison and Tesla himself. His Space X project is awesome. Back in the 60s we all have read these TinTin comics about a trip to the moon with a returning (in one piece) space rocket. Back then it was impossible to achieve that. But now it's plain reality.
I wouldn't be surprised when Musk comes up with an up-and-running, 21st century version of Tesla's Wardenclyffe Tower ( https://www.damninteresting.com/teslas-tower-of-power/ very interesting stuff). That would give Musk's cars and endless advantage: constant charging when you're driving = unlimited milage!
Menno
A neighbour of a love has a 1923 Light Car category two seater sports car. An 1188 cc. 6 cilinder and the topedo bodied vehicle weighs about 550 kilo.
Does 120 km/h and easily 20 kms on a liter.
Oh, four speeds plus reverse and brakes on all four wheels.
It has 12 V. system added for road safety and it is very easy to imagine a modern made equivalent doing easily over 50 kms/l.
No, junction 36 M4 down in South Wales. I think Tesla have an agreement with Welcome Break though because I am spotting their superchargers in more and more Welcome Break Services.
I'm just waiting for the moment the government announce electric cars as a big problem then decide to tax them to the hilt, they're not as clean as we are lead to believe and where's all this electricity coming from? How many times are we told there could be blackout's due to not enough power stations been built...
Remember it wasn't too long ago we were told that diesel was the future and beneficial for drivers to change onto those models...
Last edited by Martylaa; 18th November 2017 at 15:47.
Mr Musk
Probably has other transport ideas up his sleeve.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
range anxiety is a myth anyways - you just need a fast charging 200mile range car with a decent sat nav app in the car that lets you know which fast chargers are in your range, 30-40 minutes for an 80% top up and bingo
and there lies the problem, all of that is way too complicated for the average person, until the chargers become contactless instead of contract based, until the range gets better and charging faster
the average granny will still want to go to the car dealer and choose 'the blue one' because thats how people shop.
AVs are indeed the future in big cities, etc, but they'll have bus and taxi industy to deal with first
EV charging is as clean as the country's Grid allows.... (not taking into consideration where the parts come from and which coal burning factories made them etc) Germany, Portugal, Spain and UK have a lot of solar, wind and gas powered stations between them - there is less and less reliance on coal (until trump came along)
Last edited by Xantiagib; 20th November 2017 at 10:13.
You have a point.
Unless we generate a LOT more solar/wind/wave power in the next few years, we're going to be in hock to the Chinese for trillions for building and operating nuclear power stations all over the coutryside for us...
The NIMBYs moan about wind turbines, but they'll be wishing they'd said yes when they live in the shadow of a cut-price Chinese power station!
M
Diesel fired pwer stations will be our future
Anxiety isn't a myth. It may be misplaced, but it's still the biggest thing holding back electric cars.
Personally, I don't think having to stop for nearly an hour after 200 miles is acceptable on a long journey (For instance, I drive to Plymouth, just over 200 miles - So I'm adding in another stop there - Also, I stay in a B&B with no dedicated parking, how do I recharge my car today? Find somewhere with a charging station? OK, but I need to take all my gear to a boat, where there are no charging stations... OK, so this isn't working already... Likewise on a recent trip to my S-I-L's wedding - Over 200 miles, so I need to stop for 30-40 minutes on top of the journey which is already a hellish 7 hours and probably hammers the range anyway...
Only those super keen on the idea of EVs will embrace them until the infrastructure makes them as easy to use as IC cars and I don't really see much being done towards that yet. Sure some supermarkets have 3 or 4 free electric charging stations, but that won't last once most new cars are electric, and anyway, the idea of waiting half an hour to 'refuel' your car is insane. We'll need fast (and I mean under 5 minutes) charging and some kind of mass network of chargers for them to work, much as we have for petrol stations.
M
I agree with you totally - the anxiety is not a myth - Yes there are plenty of other anxieties thrown in when EVs involved. But the 'range anxiety' is a myth. Regular driving has plenty of anxieties too, and that's what you get he AA/RAC for etc...
and its still too convenient unless you are a nerdy/beardy/hipster who wants to adapt to using an EV - it might work for some right away, and here's hoping it will work for more and more people as the years go by and battery technologies / recharging improves.
I fuel up once a month with my hybrid as most of my driving is town and back short trips etc.. weekend only long drives use up the fuel but i'm getting over 50mpg most of the time
so if i switch to EV i need to recharge every few days at home probably over night - at weekends long trips will need to be planned around fast chargers - plenty of them about
30 minute stop evey couple of hours drive is a recommended break anyway.
Last edited by Xantiagib; 20th November 2017 at 11:38.
You've missed my point, I think.
If I could pop into one of those for 5-10 minutes to recharge, it'd be fine, but I can't - It will take up to an hour to 'refuel' for my journey home, something that's inconvenient and couldn't be achieved overnight at my B&B.
Loads of places to recharge work if you can do it quickly.
30 minutes (let alone an hour) isn't quickly and I'm sure I'm not alone in driving 200+ miles without a 30 minute break, recommended or not... I've driven 750 miles to Munich in a day a few times, with little more than a 5-10 minute toilet break every 3-5 hours, when I refuelled - That would be something I could never consider undertaking in a current (no pun intended) electric vehicle.
M
What if you won't need to pop to one of those for 5-10 minutes at all. it really depends on which model EV in use and which charging method - renault and nissan pushing 200mile+ ranges in 2018,who knows whats coming in the next 5 years
if you need to do Munich in one go - something I doubt a large percentage of you need to do more than once a year lets say - you hire another type of car to do that... I think its Nissan, or other lease deals give you free rental once a year for situations like that
the issue I see is price for the size of car you get its all very well saying you have a massive range and fast charging but have to send your luggage first in advance by RMSD!
Last edited by Xantiagib; 20th November 2017 at 11:54.
My point is that it could work for you if you wanted it to. You may have to make certain compromises and it’s up to you whether they are worth it for you.
I have a similar scenario to you in that my parents live 300 miles away. I would have to stop to recharge but always stop for a coffee en route anyway. I could make it work for me by stopping at Grantham to recharge if I had even the smallest 60kwhr Tesla. I’ve worked it out and can make it work for me but I don’t. The reason for this is that I currently use my E220 diesel which is now worth about £2k and I can’t justify buying a Tesla at £40k to do the same journey.
It’s not that I couldn’t do it, just that I’m not prepared to do it; you’ll have different compromises to make but you could make it work if you wanted to, you (as I) just choose not to.
With my work van on the other hand, I felt the compromises I had to make at the time were worth it and have been happily driving electric for the last two years.
indeed not going get the masses to turn to EVs with cars costing that much...
I always recommend Robert llewelyn's youtube channel 'Fully Charged' where he make some excellent comments about how 'normal' it is to charge and EV compared to refuelling traditional way
The BAMF instroduction cannot be separated from the Roadster introduction. Look what Elon wrote on Twitter... https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...084928/photo/1
Menno
And then there's the Roadster's acceleration... Note the absence off... sound!
Loads of torque from 0 MPH is certainly impressive
Try this version (something odd about the last video - it seems to stop and restart, as if his foot slipped off the accelerator!)
https://youtu.be/Ogbo0Vg5huM?t=65
M
The problem is in the amount of cars that will need recharging.
Imagine if even 50% of all current vehicles were electric and need recharging.. Just look at the amount of vehicles at any one time during the day that are in petrol stations refuelling.
Every single electric vehicle has to wait 20-40 minutes to charge and all the while more vehicles are arriving.
How many square feet will charging stations need to operate efficiently ?
All legitimate and very real concerns if electric cars take off in a big way, though I suspect technology will improve to address these issues.
Fisker last week filed a patent for solid state battery tech allowing 500+ mile range and 1 minute charging time. That would make it quicker than your local pumps if it were true!
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Imagine how many of those cars would need to stop at the petrol station if everybody had their own petrol/diesel pump at home.
Imagine also that every car parking space had a charging point, probably wireless.
The whole process of charging EVs is and will be completely different from the current model of refuelling ICE vehicles unless hydrogen fuel cell vehicles become the norm. This is why hydrogen is being touted as the future by big business even though it’s really a non starter.
Ah, but with petrol there is no option to fuel at home - with electricity there is. So you only need to visit a fuelling station if you are travelling a long distance, or maybe visiting somewhere. But a lot of people could charge at home.
I think Elon musk and Tesla are just phenomenal!
Yes the range at moment isn’t good enough and yes they keep missing production forecasts, but what they’re creating now will no doubt change history.
There aren’t many technologies that I can think of that we’re perfect at launch. Rather pioneers capture the imagination of people and change the way the world looks at things.
That’s exactly what he’s doing in my opinion
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I don’t think it is a new chemistry, just a great big battery that can deliver the current required for the motors.
It’s 200kWh apparently, though not sure where they’re fitting them!
I don’t see how it can be tbh... there’s just not enough space for that many lithium cells....not to mention the weight that would then screw those acceleration figures...
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I can see it now. 'have you got a semi?'
Good luck everybody. Have a good one.
I guess we’ll see when/if it makes production, but the Model S P100D has a reputed 760 BHP, so a 200 kWh pack could put out twice that, so enough to punt it down the road at a fair lick even if it weighs the same as a super tanker full of moons...
I’ve read the battery pack is circa 900kg, but obviously probably speculation based on the P100D tech.
Not everyone has a house where they can park their car and charge it overnight.
In fact more vehicles are parked on the roadside and in public places than off road at a home/house/private property.
The technology exists to charge every vehicle on the road whether stationary or moving, charging will not be an issue.
My point is that by talking about petrol stations and electric vehicles you’re trying to fit a square peg in a round hole!
This article in Autocar gives food for thought https://www.autocar.co.uk/opinion/ne...est-trick-book.
The performance figures of the Roadster are irrelevant, I’d wager not one person in a thousand could manage acceleration of that order.
The connected article relating to the truck is also interesting, it’s cost and range make it impractical for current purposes.
If I was a major manufacturer I think I would be quietly watching developments before deciding when to jump in whilst also undertaking my own research and design.
Don’t get me wrong I’m a big fan of electric cars but there are many hurdles to overcome before these become a practical proposition for the man in the street.
The National Grid has enough problems with peak requirements atm and a few thousand electric cars charging at the same time will not help matters. Not to mention a large number of motorists who have no off road parking so won’t be able to charge at home.
I wouldnt be be happy to be forced to break my 150 mile regular journey to see family for half an hour to recharge, assuming there was a vacant charging slot, and then finding it impossible to recharge at my destination as there is no off road parking available.
I’m sure these hurdles will be overcome but it won’t be a quick fix and certainly not inexpensive.
Last edited by JeremyO; 21st November 2017 at 18:32.
No off-road parking can be a problem. However: in Italy we spotted a nice feature in Lucca and Pisa: half covered parkings: only the front part of the car was under a 'canopy' with solar panels on top and there were chargers for electric cars. And then there's the not-too-often mentioned Tesla Solar Roof and Powerwall! Very interesting development as well!
Menno
EVs are a great option, we love ours. Everyone should go and drive one, it’s a completely different experience. In 17 months it’s been charged twice away from home. We are lucky to park it on the drive.
There is a test program in Germany on induction charging from parking spaces for EVs on the road side. Park in any space and the car charges.
Shell are launching forecourts of the future next year, larger sites, with charging from Solar, hydrogen, fuel, coffee and food. They see it as the future.
As an aside they are also launching a fuel at home service, little truck will come to your house, but also looking at EV charging from a truck too. Lots of tech and research taking place and going to be exciting times. I think the biggest challenge is working out what’s worth betting on, lots to research.
Some good points made but I'm interested in the first one in particular and wonder why you think it would be so difficult for people to achieve the 0 to 60 figure?
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