Recessions effect on Watch Prices

[Hood]

The last recession we had was 2008 and I wasn't into watches at that point but have always been into cars and remember how luxury/sports cars values nosedived overnight.
In the last year vintage prices on desirable watches have rocketed( DRSD,Great Whites,Ed Whites,Heuers,etc)and showing no sign of slowing at the moment.
There would be different outcomes depending on if it was a UK recession only or a world wide one however can the guys who were here or were into watches back then remember what the effect was on these rarer pieces and values.
I've thought a few times about putting some serious money into a good vintage piece but then delay and the prices move on again and its hard to take the jump as in the back of my head I'm thinking if we have a crash then you might have to write off a lot of money.
Interested in others thoughts.

[Wallasey Runner]

I don't see the prices or indeed the value of the rarer vintage pieces falling back any time soon. Top condition highly desirable pieces are now mostly in the collections of enthusiasts and very few fresh examples come to market. Logically supply and demand continues to push the prices up.

I bought a DRSD for £18k two years back, I would struggle to find that same watch now for under £25k to £30k. At that time Red Subs were around the £9k mark and 1665 Great Whites were around the £7.5k mark, both have doubled in value and some in a little over two years.

I have just done exactly what you were suggesting, putting some serious money into a top drawer vintage piece, but the right watch doesn't come cheap or is easy to find and in this scenario it is better to buy from one of the world's top sellers rather than a lesser outfit.

[Omegamanic]

Well let’s look at the 2008 prices to now. Then 2008 to 2012. I don’t remember a time when prices actually dropped, they just slowed for a bit.

Now, if you bought at the top of the market in £ and then the currency improved say 20-25%, then maybe the UK market would look expensive and you might find the worldwide price for your expensive old watch could be much cheaper than you paid. But if you love the watch and enjoy it, I’m sure over the mid to long term none of that will matter so much.

Lower volume popular models are the ones worth buying imo.

[paskinner]

Every artificial boom is marked by people convinced prices only go up. But they don't. Ever. It's just a question of when the market reverses, not if. And on the timing of that, no-one knows.
A secondary issue is the longer-term market for mechanical watches. Fashions change. An example is antique furniture where prices have collapsed in recent years because consumers are less interested.
None of us know what will happen.

[PatrickJ]

It will be interesting to see what happens to the relatively common watches currently trading above list i.e. BLNR - I really can’t see them holding up in a recession


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[Montello]

Buy watches because you like them.

Other investments make better investments.

[aldfort]

This topic has been done before.

Basically any collectable is a high risk investment. There is no more to be said.

[Pitch3110]

I don’t think just because a topic has been done before there is no need to discuss or no more to be said.

Hood is a reasonably new member so may have not picked up on this before and other new members may be in the very same boat and may be interested in what the present view is. I certainly welcome old topics coming along and I am sure others views change over time as mine indeed does.

I welcome the question OP and look forward to seeing views of the party faithful rather than grumpy beggars..

Pitch

[higham5]

I don’t think just because a topic has been done before there is no need to discuss or no more to be said.

Hood is a reasonably new member so may have not picked up on this before and other new members may be in the very same boat and may be interested in what the present view is. I certainly welcome old topics coming along and I am sure others views change over time as mine indeed does.

I welcome the question OP and look forward to seeing views of the party faithful rather than grumpy beggars..

Pitch

Well done for this , yep we all like watches, but we also like to know whether we are on a rising or falling tide.

[Alansmithee]

but we also like to know whether we are on a rising or falling tide.

Absolutely nobody knows.

[ataripower]

The best time to buy property, expensive jewellery including watches, vintage stuff is during a recession. Demand falls so prices fall. The brave invest in times of depression because they stand to make the biggest gains when the inevitable turnaround happens.

To answer your question yes the value of your watches will fall during a recession simply because the pool of buyers is so heavily reduced. Brave it out, hold on to your assets and you will be fine

[Omegamanic]

Every artificial boom is marked by people convinced prices only go up. But they don't. Ever. It's just a question of when the market reverses, not if. And on the timing of that, no-one knows.
A secondary issue is the longer-term market for mechanical watches. Fashions change. An example is antique furniture where prices have collapsed in recent years because consumers are less interested.
None of us know what will happen.

Im so glad houses are cheaper now than when I bought my first one.

[Devonian]

If and when a recession happens I think the vintage watch market may well stop rising in price but there’s every chance they’ll hold their values. The market that will be affected will be the newer watches - subs, blnr’s, hulks etc. People are currently paying over rrp for many Rolex watches. New sales would fall meaning There’s availability at AD’s, meaning that grey prices would fall, so therefore private owners in turn would take a hit.

That said who cares anyway, we all buy because we wear them eh 😜

[Wallasey Runner]

It is a weird one for sure, watch the news and the number of food banks is growing, the number of people sleeping on the streets is growing and people are paying a fortune to house a whole family in a single room in a converted office on an industrial estate. Yet trot into Goldsmiths and David M Robinson and the Daytona lists are closed as are the SD50 lists etc etc. Queues of people waiting to part with £8k or £9k on the strength of a phone call.

We see it here, a Daytona listed for £12.5k sells in minutes and I am sure it could have been sold several times over. The other week three watches listed by the same guy for over £40k and each one lasted a matter of minutes.

So yes, recession for some, but times of plenty for others.

[reggie747]

And what follows the low of a recession, an economic recovery - so whatever you have now, keep hold of because the price comeback will be more than your wildest dreams.

[-Ally-]

And what follows the low of a recession, an economic recovery - so whatever you have now, keep hold of because the price comeback will be more than your wildest dreams.

Hold on to the watches and buy cheap stock. Win win.

When’s it happening then :)

[Wallasey Runner]

Hold on to the watches and buy cheap stock. Win win.

When’s it happening then :)

Apparently you need to buy cheap on SC and sell high on the bay. I understand on good authority that it is officially called making a profit as opposed to profiteering. The latter seems to makes one's p**s boil.

Quite why, I'm not too sure, but allegedly it is true

[Chris_in_the_UK]

No effect at all, seriously.

99% of the stuff we discus/enjoy/aspire/condemn is so far of the average high street buyer it is beyond the effect of inflation.

[walkerwek1958]

Buy watches because you like them.

Other investments make better investments.

+1........couldn’t agree more. The only reason to buy any watch is because you enjoy owning it, then you’re less worried if it drops in value. Personally, I think there’s a bubble waiting to burst where vintage watch values are concerned, I can see the appeal of the cheaper stuff but not the supposedly desirable expensive watches.

Paul

[Montello]

Like any asset prices go up and down.

If we knew the future we’d all be multimillionaires ... I wouldn’t bet my old age on watches but if the few I have go up in value that’s nice but it isn’t why I bought them.

My biggest concern is keeping them serviced in the future if mechanical watches disappear.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

+1........couldn’t agree more. The only reason to buy any watch is because you enjoy owning it, then you’re less worried if it drops in value. Personally, I think there’s a bubble waiting to burst where vintage watch values are concerned, I can see the appeal of the cheaper stuff but not the supposedly desirable expensive watches.

Paul

We do not have a flat economy across the country - looking in Burlington Arcade/Harrods Watch Room the prices are high and they places have people in them all the time.

[sarky]

You have to buy any modern watch expecting it to be worth 50% of retail price as soon as you purchase and then take into account an annual depreciation and service costs. Collectors just increase their risk/reward.

[hafle]

Buy watches because you like them.

Other investments make better investments.

And the fact that I like them makes them better investments than a number on a screen.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

You have to buy any modern watch expecting it to be worth 50% of retail price as soon as you purchase and then take into account an annual depreciation and service costs. Collectors just increase their risk/reward.

Funny, so funny.

[sarky]

Funny, so funny.

What’s funny about that statement?

[Chris_in_the_UK]

What’s funny about that statement?

Most of it...

'modern watch' - what is that genre?

'collectors increasing their risk/reward' - how are they and what are the rewards?

[sarky]

Most of it...

'modern watch' - what is that genre?

'collectors increasing their risk/reward' - how are they and what are the rewards?

A modern watch refers to a watch which is in current production. A collector (someone owning watch plus 1 etc) takes more potential financial risk of loss, or long term gain. Disagree all you want, but the statement is correct, perhaps you just misunderstood?

[Chris_in_the_UK]

A modern watch refers to a watch which is in current production. A collector (someone owning watch plus 1 etc) takes more potential financial risk of loss, or long term gain. Disagree all you want, but the statement is correct, perhaps you just misunderstood?

No, not at all.

You have a poor understanding of the watch market and it's dynamics- not your fault but I suggest you do some research before you patronise members of a watch forum.

[walkerwek1958]

As a collector, I own stuff I like rather than watches I think will make good investements. Vintage Subs or Speedmasters leave me totally cold, I don’t rate them, I don’t like them, I’ve no yearning to own them regardless of how much they may be worth. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market for such pieces was hit by a recession or simply by them falling out of favour in the same way that antique darkwood furniture has over the past few years, I can’t see the intrinsic appeal of these watches so on that basis I wouldn’t be shocked if they did fall in value.

I would only own collectables for the pleasure of owning them; knowing they were likely to hold their value would make me more inclined to put money into a collection but it would always be money I could afford to lose if values fell.

Paul

[sarky]

No, not at all.

You have a poor understanding of the watch market and it's dynamics- not your fault but I suggest you do some research before you patronise members of a watch forum.

My understanding is exact. Man pops out to shop tomorrow and buys Raymond Weil. He puts it on eBay a year later he gets less than half what he paid. Man buys two RW, he loses twice as much. Man buys two BLNR/Cameron/other at RRP (I know, but humour me), sells a year later and likely makes a profit. I’ll educate you more another time.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

My understanding is exact. Man pops out to shop tomorrow and buys Raymond Weil. He puts it on eBay a year later he gets less than half what he paid. Man buys two RW, he loses twice as much. Man buys two BLNR/Cameron/other at RRP (I know, but humour me), sells a year later and likely makes a profit. I’ll educate you more another time.

Not really.

I am not going to humour you - you can not teach me (or most of the members here) anything about the dynamics of the watch market.

[sarky]

Not really.

I am not going to humour you - you can not teach me (or most of the members here) anything about the dynamics of the watch market.

I do like it when someone admits they were wrong. Shows good spirit, especially from the lifeblood of the forum, constantly living on post count and nothing else of any substance.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

I do like it when someone admits they were wrong. Shows good spirit, especially from the lifeblood of the forum, constantly living on post count and nothing else of any substance.

Thanks for ID'ing yourself - at least we have you up front and centre.

Lol.

[sarky]

Thanks for ID'ing yourself - at least we have you up front and centre.

Lol.

Lol

[oldoakknives]

The best time to buy property, expensive jewellery including watches, vintage stuff is during a recession. Demand falls so prices fall. The brave invest in times of depression because they stand to make the biggest gains when the inevitable turnaround happens.

To answer your question yes the value of your watches will fall during a recession simply because the pool of buyers is so heavily reduced. Brave it out, hold on to your assets and you will be fine

This.

Recession is when the brave can win. Bottle it and sell because prices are dropping and the brave will buy it off you.

You can substitute 'foolish' for 'brave' if you think the recession will never end. In the past they always have.

[coldwarkid]

To have the best chance of a watch holding or increasing it's value in a recession you would need to be buying a top piece in mint condition.

Absolute top end PP and stuff by George Daniels or Roger Smith should be on the radar, especially anything that's historically significant in it's commissioning.

Things like popular Rolex, which have an inflated value at the moment are much more risky and I think sooner or later somebody will be left holding the baby when values correct themselves.

[coldwarkid]

And what follows the low of a recession, an economic recovery - so whatever you have now, keep hold of because the price comeback will be more than your wildest dreams.

Unfortunately, we're talking about mechanical watches here, not property.

We can all guess, but nobody really knows what will happen to the market in 20 or 30 years from now when the current mass of collectors start to die off. Young people mostly see watches as a fashion item or something to brag about. They all want a Rolex because it's Rolex but they're never going to make a large collectors market like the one we see now.

Top end pieces will probably fair well but that vintage Heuer that is in vogue the moment could well sink like a stone.

[aldfort]

sorry if some thought my answer was grumpy. It is true I am fed up of hearing this question again and again.

Anyway I'll elaborate:

If you buy any collectable then you need to take sentiment into account. If you don't know what this means then ask an antiques dealer or watch a few episodes of the Antiques Roadshow. The desirability of a collectable (including watches and cars) is driven by the market. It's true that supply of money has an impact but so does this odd thing called sentiment, if something ceases to be desirable to a large group of collectors then it's value falls. This is not directly connected to the state of the economy. This is what makes collectable a high risk investment.

[JDB]

Leaving aside the issue of whether watches are a good investment vehicle, a recession n the UK will have little or no effect of the prices of collectible watches since these are traded on a world market and the rest of the world will not be having a recession.

[aldfort]

Leaving aside the issue of whether watches are a good investment vehicle, a recession n the UK will have little or no effect of the prices of collectible watches since these are traded on a world market and the rest of the world will not be having a recession.

However much you wish this to be true it simply is not. See what I wrote about sentiment in relation to collectables. The market worldwide can drop like a stone overnight. The price of a collectable is linked to it's desirability. If the desirability evaporates then so does the value. Now I grant you that some collectables are more desirable than others at any given time but where there is not real rarity associated with the collectable (e.g. a lot of Rolex) then it's subject to the same effect.

[JDB]

However much you wish this to be true it simply is not. See what I wrote about sentiment in relation to collectables. The market worldwide can drop like a stone overnight. The price of a collectable is linked to it's desirability. If the desirability evaporates then so does the value. Now I grant you that some collectables are more desirable than others at any given time but where there is not real rarity associated with the collectable (e.g. a lot of Rolex) then it's subject to the same effect.

I didn't deny that worldwide prices can fall. A change in 'sentiment' would do it or a worldwide recession. What I said was that a recession in the UK alone would not reduce prices.

[Kallang]

I suspect there are different tiers of collecting serving different markets and how recession impacts each tier would depend on how it affects each market. For example, if the super rich top 0.1% are relatively spared then the value of the headline super high end collecting (a la Paul Newman Paul Newman), which is probably treated the same way as fine art and real estate, may be preserved. But the market who would currently pay above RRP for a stainless steel Rolex (i.e. those with generous but mortal wealth) may choose to restrict their spending. Also let's not forget that before Daytonas were king it was the Rolex Bubbleback that commanded the highest prices. Now they are almost forgotten. Collectibilty can be fickle.

Whilst we may not have had a recession since 2008 the Swiss watch industry has been going through a sustained downturn recently which gives some real life illumination on the effect on prices. As far as I can see it hasn't caused radical change. Some slightly cheaper models from Haute brands like the Lange Saxonia 35mm have come out. Maybe more thought has gone into brands like Tudor and Oris to exploit this. But overall strong value propositions are to be picked out amongst the bloat rather than the norm.

[JP Chestnut]

During the last global recession (2008) prices went soft across the board. However, what really happened was massively increased availability. The bad economy shook loose some amazingly good/rare/high quality vintage watches.

I think the effect on prices is pretty easy to predict. They definitely won't go up.

[coldwarkid]

It's interesting that nobody has touched on the emerging markets at all.

If, for example, the Chinese were to, out of the blue, take a very keen interest in mechanical watches, the price of the genuinely rare and collectable pieces could go through the roof.

It may seem a little unlikely but 20, or even just 15 years ago, nobody would have predicted the way that the Chinese would change the landscape in Bordeaux of their wine sales. The food generally doesn't suit Claret, or indeed, red wine in general but if we look at the recent super-vintages of the very best Chateau the price is completely bonkers. Lafite was never cheap but once the Chinese took an interest prices sky rocketed. 2009 and 2010 vintages were massively hyped before release and prices went up accordingly. In bond allocations were hard for ordinary mortals to afford or obtain.

All of this is just musing, of course, but this and posts above show how many variables there are.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

It's interesting that nobody has touched on the emerging markets at all.

If, for example, the Chinese were to, out of the blue, take a very keen interest in mechanical watches, the price of the genuinely rare and collectable pieces could go through the roof.

It may seem a little unlikely but 20, or even just 15 years ago, nobody would have predicted the way that the Chinese would change the landscape in Bordeaux of their wine sales. The food generally doesn't suit Claret, or indeed, red wine in general but if we look at the recent super-vintages of the very best Chateau the price is completely bonkers. Lafite was never cheap but once the Chinese took an interest prices sky rocketed. 2009 and 2010 vintages were massively hyped before release and prices went up accordingly. In bond allocations were hard for ordinary mortals to afford or obtain.

All of this is just musing, of course, but this and posts above show how many variables there are.

The Chinese are already all over it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...tion-crackdown

[taz11]

i thought most rolexs were sold to the chinese and in hk for decades

[JP Chestnut]

i thought most rolexs were sold to the chinese and in hk for decades

How many Chinese people do you think we're buying luxury watches 30 years ago?



Not very many.

[coldwarkid]

i thought most rolexs were sold to the chinese and in hk for decades

I was talking more about the super rich totally changing the value of the upper end rare and collectable pieces.

I would suspect that 20 years ago, most of the Rolex sold in HK weren't sold to the Chinese. Nowadays, there's probably a lot more but they haven't entered the high end collector/investor market in any great numbers. I was just wondering what would happen if they did.

It doesn't matter to me because I can't see small collection of affordables ever becoming classics. I just find it interesting.

[coldwarkid]

The Chinese are already all over it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...tion-crackdown

Those sort of sales will slow soon if they haven't already.

The government in china is getting more and more determined to deal with corruption and extravagant behaviour.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

I suspect you may have skim read the link I posted.

The luxury Swiss watch market in China dropped slightly to £14.7 million - hardly a low level of sales?

Those sort of sales will slow soon if they haven't already.

The government in china is getting more and more determined to deal with corruption and extravagant behaviour.