VW are saying no petrol or diesel cars by 2030 and 80% electric by 2025, if that really is the case surely I'm better off sitting on my hands and not buying a new car for 7 years, modern cars are reliable and unless you damage them they will last for ever.
The UK already buy in electricity to cover a capacity shortfall, where is all of this electricity going to come from? battery technology wont develop that fast.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41231766
Short term I don;t htink there's much to worry about but certainly in medium-long term if there was any more reasons needed to lease rather than buy this is one more to add.
EDF and wind turbine farmers are going to make a lot more money than they do already. A lot.
Batteries don't make the electricity.
Tow a gigantic trailer full of solar panels !
Or maybe a clockwork car with a massive key sticking out the back !
Brendan
These announcements, together with the so-called "scrappage" offers are merely marketing fluff designed to fool the gullible into believing that their current cars will be completely worthless this time next week and they must rush to their local dealer and sign up for a lease deal on something shiny and new which will save the planet.
I predict a surge in new car registrations for the second half of this year.
Just because manufacturers don't intend to sell petrol or deisel cars beyond a certain date, doesn't mean they need to be off the road, or indeed that there will be no demand. It could be that petrol cars will be more appealing on the secondhand market when you can't buy them new
Surely they are saying anything that you buy now will be worthless, that's my real point, I'm not sure about the toys but why spend money on an everyday carOriginally Posted by Backward point
That's my plan - 2 years ago we bought a toyota hybrid and going to run it as long as we can and hopefully in about 7-8 years time go full electric.
by then hopefully there are more electric charging stations around Southern Spain where we do most of the driving (bit of a black hole for these compared to the rest of Europe at the moment)
bye bye diesels, never actually owned a diesel but driven many, 14 years ago in Vancouver I noticed most of the buses ran on hydrogen
Very few new cars bought now would not be practically worthless by 2025 or 2030 anyway.
You need lots of cheap electricity for Hydrogen - I guess Vancouver has Hydro Electric ? It was the same in Iceland all buses were Hydrogen powered as they have so much power.
I think a lot of this is share price related and the fear of Tesla (market cap in excess of Ford / General Motors) - the public will decide what they want & I think may take longer to adopt than the manufacturers expect at the moment.
As for the electricity supply hopefully by then superconducting will allow a cable to be run from Iceland or something similar. Apparently we have moved away from "peak demand" due to being able to pause TV so all the kettles no longer go on with an ad break in Coronation Street (multiple channels must help too) but I can see a new "peak demand" as people get home from work and immediately plug their cars in.
I would love an electric engined car. No oil changes or coolant issues and soooooo quiet! The trolley wires overhead may be a bit unsightly so rails under the car may work better. Hang on, we already have that system don't we? Bring back British Rail, with a drive on/off service. Problem solved. :)
The message to take from this is buy and enjoy a V8 now while you still can.
Wishful thinking.
No way manufacturers can go over to 80% electric within the first half of this century with current tech.
Thankfully, I'll be dead by then, and the snowflakes can just get on with it.
Or not.
Let's say you've sorted out the issues of the very many people who can't currently easily find a place to put an outside charger: millions of terraces and blocks of flats with awkward parking around the country. Where is the power to come from if everyone gets home at six and plugs the car in? According to Google it takes up to 16 hours to charge a Leaf. Great. You get in at 6, stick on charge and 13 hours later your not full but have to go to work.
Yes, you say, but chargers and batteries will improve over the next 15 years, but your home power output won't. Will your fuse box take the car charger on full while you're running the dryer and boiling a kettle whilst the kids are on their consoles? No, is the answer I read on the BBC recently. The normal house fusebox can't cope.
Lots of issues to solve before the country is fully electric.
The clue is in the word "gullible". The average punter knows next to nothing about cars, so can easily be led by the wallet into something which is marketed as "a bit greener" than their current car.
YES!!!
As I mentioned earlier, dynamic induction charging, the car charges as it drives. There'll be no need for plug in chargers. Even if this were main roads only you could still have induction loops in every car parking space so the cars can be charging whenever they are parked.
Again, not everybody will want to charge at the same time or even on the same day; I charge mine between midnight and 7am.
Agreed charging off a 3 pin plug can take 15 hours to fully charge (from flat) a 30kwhr battery pack. That is thf worst case scenario; mist batteries are not flat when put on to charge, all chargers are at least 3.3kw so almost 50% faster than a 3 pin plug. My home charger is 7kw which is fairly standard for home chargers. Rapids currently charge at 50kw and there are 100kw chargers coming anytime.
My home electric supply is, like the majority, rated at 100 amps, more than enough to take a 32 amp load (7kw) plus the cooker, lighting, tv, washing machine etc.
I agree that there are plenty of issues to resolve but not those that you have mentioned.
Its marketing spin...what worries me more is how the government is going to make up the revenue shortfall from petrol/diesel sales at the pump.
I agree the technology could work but imagine the cost and disruption. How long is HS2 going to take, or a new London airport/runway? Everything just takes so long in this country.
If it is ever put in place will be interesting to see if cyclists take advantage of it!
Tax road use, wouldn't be difficult.
They will just start taxing the car in different ways or tax the electricity. At the moment charging a car is cheap, but that is likely to change for the reason you mention. Probably not something to worry about though.
The more I think about it, the more I believe that the whole concept of car ownership will disappear eventually and we will all be charged on a per mile basis in whatever vehicle we happen to be travelling in.
A large chunk of this charge will be tax!
EVs are effectively being subsidised by other road users now. More than 60% of fuel (petrol/diesel) price is tax and once this is shared amongst all road users running an EV won't seem so cheap!
I wonder how they will be able to tell the difference between car electricity and domestic power, assuming it ends up being the same frequency and same voltage, other than Red diesel I think all fuel is taxed according to its use.
Where there's a will there's a way.
And you can bet your life there's a will!
Is this before or after Dacia produce their first magnetic hover car?
There isn't enough landspace in the UK to site the nuclear powerplants required.
You don't need nuclear power plants, just replace tarmac with solar panels (trials already ongoing). The issue won't be electricity generation so much as how to store it.
Again, far too expensive. What's the lifetime of a road surface before it needs re-doing - don't imagine these panels will be tougher?
Compared to what? The road itself? The road and the equivalent power station? And associated running costs for both over their lifetimes?
The answer is you don't know and neither do I.
What I am saying is that there is plenty of research going on into the future of electric vehicles, roads and power generation. Where it leads and what eventually comes to the fore can only be speculation but things are changing rapidly and the current cost of various elements are unlikely to stand in the way.
Mobility solutions...
Car ownership is already eroding with the explosion of PCH.
Uber are already ahead of the curve, as are a handful of funders in the market place.
Well I'm speculating, as you were.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/innova...nth-180948260/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemon_battery
Both proving we don't know what will come along
Well yes those do but they're not rechargeable and would need a supply of potatoes or lemons.
Doesn't prove anything, that's ancient technology.
IIRC most homes only actually get about 80 amps at the board despite being able to take 100.
But as you've said, charging only takes 32 amps of the board so leaving just enough to run an induction hob or electric oven so long as you don't boil the kettle or put any lights on at the same time.... or you're a two car family like most of the UK and need to charge both at the same time after work !!!
But being serious, any move to fully electric vehicles will only work once the need to charge at home has been overcome and they can be charged on the move somehow.
This needs to be coupled with a cleaner way to generate electricity in the first place, and better means to store electricity both as part of the national grid and within vehicles.
I can't help but think the technology that will overcome these problems has yet to be designed, but it will come and the need to move to electric vehicles will drive that research forward rapidly.
I'll be gone before all this needs to be really thought about. I always wanted a V8. It won't happen. Never mind.
Once EV are the only option might be difficult to buy a cheap (say <£500) car suitable for a youngster - could be that residual/scrap battery values will always be more than that.
^
One of the things I admire about the Americans is the sheer passion they have for their cars. It's in their blood. I envy it and I so want that Boss... It would even fit on our roads.
Agree...yet even in my lifetime there has been a shift and I suspect all good things must come to an end. Cripe...what I used to be able to buy for $500-$1500 as a 17 year old kid now goes for $30K-$100K. I wish I had set aside all the old cars I'd had as a kid. *sigh*
Only need a squash court for a 4MWe reactor. We can squeeze quite a few of those in!
I've never minded being called a "Petrol Head." But "Electric Head?"..................Please Noooooooo!
Kids don't drive around in old bangers these days if you hadn't noticed.
Maybe not in your world.
That's why smart meters are being pushed. It'll be a tax-vehicle to increase tariffs when they know you'll use most electricity.
Can't believe people can't see through the smart meter scam!
According to google you can fast charge up to 80% in 30 minutes also.... (type 2 240V and type 3 DC fast charging.... type 1 is usa 120v snailmode )
Hopefully employers will install more chargers over the years in their parkings so you can charge a few hours at home and then some at work
How A home system can deal with more than one car charging at a time depends on how many amps you are drawing and you should be able to draw less and charge for longer (if it suits you - the new leaf or Renault Zoe with a 50% charge is enough for most short commutes)
Tesla Type wall batteries and solar panels are another solution if you are concerned... but they will take many many years to pay for themselves
Never ever going to be fully electric are we? - and its never going to work for everyone at the moment nor in the next 30 years. But the more and more it does work means cleaner air for all in the cities...
Unfortunately Google is wrong.
If you consider the smaller Leaf (24kwhr) then 80% is 19.2 kwhr in 30 minutes so 38.4 kWh/hr. This equates to 160 amp draw excluding any losses.
Rapid charging is available at bespoke rapid chargers but home charging is 7kw max (unless you have 3 phase and can potentially go to 22kw) taking approximately three hours to charge to 80% from flat.
Your home supply might be 100A but the network cables will never take the increased demand. Put in a plan request to your local DNO and have a look at the LV network cables in your area.
Ours is a new estate and our infrastructure is wholly inadequate for the potential extra demand of all these cars charging.
Can you imagine what the network is like in older areas with for example high density terraced type housing?
The situation is manageable while a miniscule amount of EV owners are charging their cars, but when the majority of car owners in your neighbourhood are charging?
Not a chance in hell that the electrical infrastructure will be sufficient in the future without eye watering amounts of investment that will ultimately be financed by the consumer. Cheap electricity to charge your EV? No way.
Clearly there is a requirement for investment in infrastructure. Where, when and how much is still really an unknown. Maybe the current electrical network can't currently cope with the future requirements; maybe it won't have to. Who knows whether home charging will be utilised in the future? I'm not even sure we'll have our Ian cars; I believe they'll come to us as required, take us where we want to go and probably be charging wirelessly as we travel.
Whatever the future holds we can be sure of two things:
One. That the infrastructure will be built to supply the demand and
Two. That the government will find a way to ensure that their revenues don't suffer!
Just got a vision of some large conference or event where a few thousand people in cars come from all over the country to attend for a couple of days, stay in hotels etc.
Then picture the hotel or the event location with its 2 or 4 point charging station and hours charging time.
I want to know what will happen to all the oil. I will believe it when I see it.
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