Reply With QuoteKeep your heads down MarkO and stay safe.
Following the huge impact of Harvey there is a new major hurricane developing.
Irma is predicted to become Cat 4 later today.
I live on the tiny dot just under the M for 2am Friday.
Heading back to Provo tomorrow with 3 of my children- keeping a close eye on this one.
Keep your heads down MarkO and stay safe.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
Spotted it earlier and it looks like it is now turning North towards Bermuda, so hopefully will pass you, just. Stay safe.
Fas est ab hoste doceri
Just heard the resorts are shutting down Monday- planing to get home Tuesday and board up .
This is about as close a track I have seen since Ike in 2008
Another 'I' then... Well boarded up, full jerrycans for the generator and drinking water, check on your neighbours and stay inside.
Good luck!
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
As I am currently in the U.K. the debate is whether to go home tomorrow with 3 kids or not - will sleep on it .
At least plywood and man power is arranged to be at the house tomorrow.
If you stay you do not know when you'll get there, by which time stuff may have been damaged that would have been fine had you been around (water damage for example)
Of course having the children means staying is safer unless they can stay with your wife while you go back. That's what my father used to do many, many years ago
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
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Last edited by Analogue; 15th September 2017 at 03:03.
Let's presume: you live in Florida, same chances you'll be hit by the hurricane - big chance you'll get the advice to evacuate with your family for safety. You're now high and dry in the UK. It's only what Saint-Just writes: are you sure that your possessions are safe enough with the measurements taken by the people who will take care for you in the first place.Originally Posted by Saint-Just
Whatever you decide to do: godspeed!
M
Track change for a direct hit - so have decided to go back as I want to make sure house is boarded up but also have a business and 2 dogs to look after.
I'm leaving the kids here in UK for now.
I know already from friends that once I get to Providenciales the chances of getting a flight to leave are already very slim.
Provo is covered by the black line between the last to M's
Be careful, very careful. And let us know that you're safe asap!
Menno
Good luck MarkO, keep in contact with the forum when you can.
Remember you can replace property and possessions but the kids can't replace their Father.
What watch will you wear for the hurricane?
Excellent question! Maybe borrow your son's SAR coloured G-Shock? Good luck!
Best wishes Mark. I think I would wait until it had hit the fan before returning - especially with the children.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
I hope you manage to get everything boarded up in time. It looks like Thursday morning could be bad:
just looked at Caribbean WX (pic below) and Accuweather it now looks like it may hit as far South as St Lucia :/
Fas est ab hoste doceri
From www.hurricanes.gov:
...and they are using AST – Atlantic Standard Time – that is UT -4 or BST -5.
The OP will be in the 30% zone. Let's hope that doesn't come to pass and the 70% chance takes over.
See also: Storm Tracker.
Just landed in Florida- overnight before going home - just updated and center of the track is now going slightly south west of Provo but wind up to 140 mph.
I'm thinking Seiko Padi for storm duty.
It's been a busy morning for Irma now Cat 5 with 175 mph sustained winds and higher gusts
Keep your head down!
Hope everything's battened down well for you (and everyone else in it's path!)
Hope all goes well and you stay safe.
Best Regards - Peter
I'd hate to be with you when you're on your own.
Looks like it will probably hit South Florida at the the weekend.
My son's house is on the space coast so hopefully out of harm's way but you never know...
Cheers,
Neil.
T'is the season (see #1):
Even the TC Government has issued an alert...but I expect that it's all over the local radio.
Edit: #1 has now been given a name...Jose...and the picture updated. The first prediction is that Jose will pass north of TC, but after Irma the last thing they need will be more high winds. Stay safe...
Last edited by PickleB; 5th September 2017 at 21:22.
Love to see that you haven't lost your TZ focus :)
Hope you and your family stay safe
ATB
Jon
Hope you and you pets stay safe through out, best of luck. I feel for your family here that must also be very scared for your safety right now.
Tom
Thanks for the kind words - latest figures are sustained winds 185 mph, arriving Thursday evening.
I have my housekeeper her husband and sister moving in today, they will be safer with me than downtown as their place floods.
I have help coming in a couple of hours for boarding up and have just got my essential supplies - whiskey and vodka.
Stay safe, Mark!
Not a fan of the local produce then? JK, good man, do not forget to keep fully charged anything what can be charged and dry what needs to be dry. We have friends in ANU, naturally they are worried but also in good spirits. God speed, I, for one, is keeping everything crossed for you and everyone in the pass!
Fas est ab hoste doceri
Good one! Serious flooding in the UK (and even overhere in Holland from time to time) has shown that charged electronics can be very helpful when 'the grid' is down. But I am sure that Mark is properly prepared.do not forget to keep fully charged anything what can be charged and dry what needs to be dry.
First, the three Dutch islands Saba, St Eustatitus and St. Maarten. Officially 3 Dutch counties so, Dutch law etc are enforced there. Including the help and money that will be involved to repair the damage as if they were any other Dutch town here in Europe. Interestingly, the internet has brought this a lot closer to us than ever before. There's even a special webcam on St. Maarten trying to take shots of the storm as it develops. The server is down... too many people want to have a look on that website.
Latest forecast on CNN: after Irma has passed Mark's T&C regions, it is heading for Florida. Two scenarios are forecasted: the US forecast predicts a turn to the right/north after it has passed the south tip of Florida, making landfall on the SW corner of Florida. The European forecast (that also predicted the correct Harvey route) sees a turn to the right just before it hits Florida, going north, the 'Matthew route' so that it will be the Carolinas that get hit hard later next week.
Menno
Having lived in Boca in the eighties and been through a hurricane I've been watching the thread with great interest and wish you all the best Mark, stay safe.
Here it is for anyone interested - http://www.portstmaartenwebcam.com
Fas est ab hoste doceri
Thanks to a great team effort I am fully boarded up and can spend tomorrow helping others get ready .
The combination of massive storm surge , high tide and full moon makes for a perfect trifecta- I think Wednesday will be nervous anticlimax and the serious problems will build through the day Thursday.
I'm going to post some before pictures tomorrow and then some after pics when I get back power and online afterwards.
Thanks for the update Mark, I was listening to Antigua's Observer Radio live stream (DJs banter and call ins) until 0445 GMT when it dropped out, now they are broadcasting old hits with intermittent drop outs http://station.voscast.com/51891877d60b6
From what I gather ANU is currently getting cat 2/3 North winds and looking at NOAA NHC 'potentially catastrophic' cat 5 event it will be a long and harrowing night :/
Fas est ab hoste doceri
My wife contacted my son yesterday and asked him what he was doing re the hurricane.
His reply, "buying a kite".
Cheers,
Neil.
Good luck Mark, can't be a pleasant experience to go through.
I've been watching a few sailing vlogs and this one is of a yacht stuck in St Maarten - all the comments imply the boat is 'gone/will be lucky to survive' - hope they are okay. https://youtu.be/wDHASWxAUng
Last edited by Dazzler; 6th September 2017 at 07:48.
Irma has the makings of being a catastrophic hurricane, already it is the most powerful Atlantic Ocean one in recorded history.
R
Ignorance breeds Fear. Fear breeds Hatred. Hatred breeds Ignorance. Break the chain.
St. Maarten's capitol Philipsburg is flooded due to the rain. Dutch Royal Marines Commandos *) have landed a few hours ago, just in front of the storm to ensure proper communications after the storm, ensure safety, and provide medical attention. Other Royal Marine ships are just outside the path of the hurricane. These ships are loaded with shelters, food and medics. As soon as the weather allows, they will sail to the islands. Last Saturday, I heard that the Dutch Government stores this sort of material etc on the other Netherlands Antilles Islands: Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (what we call the ABC Islands).
*) it looks as if these Marines can live up to their motto: 'Quo Patet Orbis' - (As far as the world extends)
In the 2am update it said the eye was passing over Barbuda
Yep...link:
In Barbuda, the storm ripped off the roof of the island’s police station forcing officers to seek refuge in the nearby fire station and at the community center that served as an official shelter. The Category 5 storm also knocked out communication between islands. Midcie Francis of the National Office of Disaster Services confirmed there was damage to several homes, but said it was too early to do tally or assess the extent of the damage.
Wow a 3m storm surge expected on Turks and Caicos.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...tegory-5-storm
This link includes a video comparing the paths predicted by the EU & US models. There is also a link to their Interactive hurricane tracker.
Are you sitting this out in Provo Mark, or are you evacuating now you've completed the preparations? This one looks horrendous. If it were me I'm sure I'd have evacuated by now.
To put it in persepective...
Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
This guy is giving an idea of how bad it is to be in the middle of it with a running commentary on Twitter :
https://twitter.com/woolfallalex?lang=en
Cheers
Simon
Ralph Waldo Emerson: We ask for long life, but 'tis deep life, or noble moments that signify. Let the measure of time be spiritual, not mechanical.
I only arrived yesterday and I knew I wouldn't be able to get off - no seats left anywhere.
The domestic airline is relocating all their planes to Jamaica today and are taking passengers for just $250 return- which is a great offer - tickets all went in minutes.
Met radars:
Edit: And don't forget Earth Wind Map "a visualization of global weather conditions forecast by supercomputers updated every three hours". Goto 'about' and scroll down for shortcuts and an more explanation.
For example, press 'k' to advance and 'j' to go back 3 hours at a time.
Last edited by PickleB; 6th September 2017 at 12:03.
Stay safe but have a backup plan if the surge is confirmed.
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
Bit of a big girls blouse and drama queen me thinks...This guy is giving an idea of how bad it is to be in the middle of it with a running commentary on Twitter :
https://twitter.com/woolfallalex?lang=en
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_con...&v=WgS2hMZAsek
Latest from the island before the webcam went down in the storm. I don't if you can call him a drama queen. It is terrifying!
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/storm...=2017&storm=11
Looks like Barbuda and St Martin didn't take any of the strength of the storm down- still 185 mph.
They are predicting 20 ft waves for us here - I can't really imagine what that means at the moment for the island.
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