Prices, have they peaked ?

[snowman]

Credit vs Saving is a bit of a holy war.

If you want to buy on credit (eg a 0% deal) and can afford it, go ahead.

I bought a Sinn on 0% interest over 2 years, suited me fine at the time, although I probably wouldn't have spent all the cash up front in one go.

Could I afford it? Yes. Did it suit me better to buy on credit? Yes.

Don't buy watches in the expectation of making money, though!

M.

[KavKav]

Just a few comments:-

Eterna are alive and well, temporarily putting a village idiot in charge does not turn a Patek into a Seiko and the damage is mostly limited to how long you leave the idiot in post. Eterna have made some lovely watches over the years, none more so than the stunning white gold linen dialled model 3003. Curiously Eterna have always been more valued and appreciated on the continent than in the UK and prices have reflected this with the brand suffering under heavy UK discounting to move stock.

The earlier comments about watch price peaking and the attitude of youngsters is interesting. Clearly the massive price hikes over the last few years have done nothing to encourage the youngsters to buy with the obvious limited spending power of young persons in general. Imagine a 19 year old guy in a watch shop looking at shall we say a Omega watch that he knows his dad bought some years ago for £1,300 and the watch shop salesman says to the kid 'This is a bargain sir, it is only £6,200'! The kid is only going to be thinking one thought and that is FRO!!! Said kid will likely grow up without any appreciation of ownership of decent mechanical watches and one thing is certain, the greedy barstewards who keep hiking watch prices will one day be royally bitten on their arses as watch prices collapsing due to increasing numbers of customers no longer tolerating being taken for idiots by the 'blue sky thinking' marketing brigade!

[100thmonkey]

Its fair to say that one things for sure and that is they all go up! As the entry level is now into the £5’s we see all the previous generation of Steel Sports enjoying growth. Since production has ceased the supply and availability is on the downward spiral each day/week/month and finding a nice one gets harder until its rare and then it hits vintage prices which are big for most all the pre 80’s stuff.

Have they peaked? Well maybe some like the GMT Master have reached a strong plateau but one things for sure they will keep going and going

[relaxer7]

I think we might see a series of corrections but as with many other luxuries the trend will always be up. Houses, boats, cars, TV's, handbags, shoes, watches.... they don't get cheaper in the long run because over time, economies grow and so do wages.

[Thom4711]

I hope the prices have peaked and drop dramatically in the future so I can buy and enjoy more watches?

[stefmcd]

I suspect the main buyers of such watches, 30-50 year old males, will have so much disposable income for the foreseeable future that any price reduction is extremely unlikely.

[Kingstepper]

I hope the prices have peaked and drop dramatically in the future so I can buy and enjoy more watches?

Yes, but you won't be enjoying such valuable watches.

[Thom4711]

Yes, but you won't be enjoying such valuable watches.

Personally that wouldn't bother me. If a 6263 dropped in price so I could afford one then I would buy it for the design and enjoyment of owning the watch, not as an investment. As these are luxury goods I am not assuming the value will go up, and spend my money accordingly!

I don't attach much to the value of a watch- great design is great design imho Eg my Seiko Pogues are as valuable to me as any of my more expensive watches.

I also wonder whether values peak and trough over time- I've got a feeling this happened in the vintage car market, though not an expert? If the value of watches does tank then hopefully I am young enough to be around when they come back up in the future! Too many variables though

[Strchr03]

I suspect the main buyers of such watches, 30-50 year old males, will have so much disposable income for the foreseeable future that any price reduction is extremely unlikely.

This is just too uncertain to predict imho, being a 28 yr old involved in the mortgage world, most of my friends and acquaintances 1. Have no interest in watches, 2. Are too preoccupied with either saving madly to buy a home for themselves or deciding that they will never be able to save enough and therefore spending their money going out and socialising (as they don't have a big enough rented home to entertain).
Then, people age 40+ tend to have dependent children (and will do for the next 20 years most probably) so they tend not to have the disposable income either.
The growth in the market will either have to come from 60+ years olds who are wealthy and have good pensions or from emerging markets where ostentation is still desirable socially.
People like my father, who has been extremely frugal his whole life and has now decided that life is too short and bought his first new car since around 1975 and his first new watch since he was 21 (a lovely omega constellation that is still going).


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[Itsguy]

Personally that wouldn't bother me. If a 6263 dropped in price so I could afford one then I would buy it for the design and enjoyment of owning the watch, not as an investment.

Agreed, it would not diminish my enjoyment of certain highly priced watches one bit if they dropped in value by 50% - it would certainly increase it as I'd finally have one. I might feel differently if I'd owned one before the decrease though!

I also wonder whether values peak and trough over time- I've got a feeling this happened in the vintage car market, though not an expert? If the value of watches does tank then hopefully I am young enough to be around when they come back up in the future! Too many variables though

It's so hard to predict as tastes can change over decades to such an extraordinary degree, and every now and then you get a real sea change in attitudes. Currently though the internet seems to be enabling a collectors' market in design classics in almost every field. Perhaps it was always so, for instance in art and antiques, and certainly in watches, but it's now become so widespread. I met a friend the other night who was buying and selling 80s BMX bikes, and who showed me pictures of certain highly sought after classic models. It meant nothing to me but I realised it was no different from my take on watches. It seems to be happening all over now in every conceivable category, and seems likely to be here to stay.

[watchcollector1]

Young people are very materialistic these days. In their 20s they tend to blow all their money on cars, phones and holidays to show off but when they get higher incomes in their middle ages they may choose to spend their money on luxury watches as well.

If the contemporary luxury watches stay popular then the vintage ones are likely to as well. 1950s Ferraris certainly aren't getting any cheaper.

The market is currently flooded with 90s and 00s Rolex Subs and GMTs but prices for these watches have continued to rise. That shows how strong the market for 2nd hand Rolex is.

I think the biggest threat to the mechanincal watch industry comes from smart watches. If they evolve to become a must have gadget like the smart phone most people will stop wearing traditional watches.

[Montello]

Who ever thought that you'd be able to buy a decent pocket watch for pennies?

[verv]

Have prices peaked? No. I don't think so.

I disagree that younger people are less inclined to buy heavy duty watches. It depends on disposable income. There are a lot of young men and women who are amassing collections that make my eyes water.
They're less visible because forums are for an older crowd, but Instagram is awash with yoof clad in PP AP VC and Rolex from their fingertips to their elbows.

[lewwyt]

Interesting the majority here are saying the younger generation aren't interested in wristwatches. I would say I'm fairly young (27 years old) and I absolutely adore watches and brogues!

[MartynJC (UK)]

Nonetheless, anyone who has a mortgage, is in effect paying interest on the watch, even if they buy in cash, as that cash could otherwise have paid off the mortgage.

I don't have a mortgage - but even say I had - you could say *any* money I spent could have been put against paying interest against the mortgage instead of buying non-essentails. I think it's called financial planning - which enables us to buy a house (or rent) as well as other items. Else we'd all have no cars, telly, computers, mobiles, or watches. Or I could put money into equity funds to pay off the mortgage.

Anyway - when I had a mortgage - I only used disposable income for luxury items and I budgeted as such - so did not add 30K+ to my mortgage to buy a Patek for example. I made sure I had the cash saved up first.

there is a cross section of ages and background at my workplace - and non have an interest in watches. We are a peculiar lot in here.

M

[ollipekka]

Interesting the majority here are saying the younger generation aren't interested in wristwatches. I would say I'm fairly young (27 years old) and I absolutely adore watches and brogues!

Same, except a little older than you. There is a vast number of soon-to-be middle-class people in 'developing' economies who will love watches just like everyone else. Some of them can afford Pateks, and some Seikos, but they'll all love watches just the same. Luxury watch hasn't been a rational purchase in past 40 years, but still people buy them.

[lewwyt]

Same, except a little older than you. There is a vast number of soon-to-be middle-class people in 'developing' economies who will love watches just like everyone else. Some of them can afford Pateks, and some Seikos, but they'll all love watches just the same. Luxury watch hasn't been a rational purchase in past 40 years, but still people buy them.

I remember falling in love with the Submariner when I was 16 years old, an uncle of mine has one so perhaps some of the youngsters have to be around them to be interested. A couple of guys I work with of similar age think it's mad to save up for a Rolex but I'll still do it!

[Kelv_w]

Interesting the majority here are saying the younger generation aren't interested in wristwatches. I would say I'm fairly young (27 years old) and I absolutely adore watches and brogues!

Lucky you, plenty of brogues at Northampton

[lewwyt]

Lucky you, plenty of brogues at Northampton

Northampton could really do with a one stop shop for all the popular brands. Strange that a place like that doesn't exist. Of course there's the factory shops which are great!

[JP Chestnut]

I think they will keep rising for the next few years then take a massive dive, its been mentioned above but younger people do not tend to have the same interest in watches so the demand will drop. Plus most young people I know want new shiny things, the idea to buy a 40-50-60 year old rolex for massive amounts when you can have a new one at a fraction of the price I believe will lower the demand for the old watches, when that point is the million dollar question.

That gets said over and over. However, the newly upper/middle earning younger guys are precisely the segment that listen to hidokee (whatever) and cause the resultant massive run up in values that we've seen from brands like UG.

Some people who have collected for a decade or more seem to be slowing down due to the massive price increases. However, for every one of them there appears to be 5 new dudes on instrgram who will pay anything to have the coolest watch in their feed.

[Robsmck]

Grenson brogues rule.....

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[Argon]

That gets said over and over. However, the newly upper/middle earning younger guys are precisely the segment that listen to hidokee (whatever) and cause the resultant massive run up in values that we've seen from brands like UG.

Some people who have collected for a decade or more seem to be slowing down due to the massive price increases. However, for every one of them there appears to be 5 new dudes on instrgram who will pay anything to have the coolest watch in their feed.

Yes - I suspect that expensive mechanical watches will always have cachet. For many, display of social status is far more important than they'd care to admit and disproportionate amounts of money are spent in pursuit of this goal. This 'secret' is a key driving force behind the gigantic profits of the luxury watch industry.

[boring_sandwich]

I think interest will continue in mechanical watches. Having a 19 yr old and speaking with him and his friends it seems they see apple watches etc as fashion items that are short term disposables.
They all seem to think that a nice mechanical watch is something to aspire to as they progress in there field of work.
From what I am told Rolex is the watch of choice followed closely by Cartier.

[Dave+63]

I find all this talk of young people not being into watches rather ironic when most people of ANY age are not into watches.

There are still enough people who are and as long as our tiny subset of the population doesn't diminish in general then there'll still be the same demand for watches that there's always been.

I know this is an oversimplification but we don't need every youngster to take an interest, just enough.

[Montybaber]

I am in my thirties and I have a lot of friends of similar age who have/enjoy nice watches

That means we have (hopefully) at least another 30 years :)

[groove65]

To the original question... who knows ! You pays your money and you takes your choice ...

For me, it's not about investment it's about wanting something. It's an emotional purchase and not a financial "bet"

Life is bloody hard with mortgages, kids, work pressures and worrying about how my kids will fare in a world that seems hell bent on removing the human from the workplace.

Watches are the one thing I'm able to enjoy, almost as an escape from the stresses above.

One thing for sure - none of us are getting out of this alive... we all die out in the end. Between now and then I just want to enjoy some things and if that means I "lose" if the Watch market crashes I don't really care.

If I buy something that I want and enjoy having on my wrist, I don't see it any other way than enjoyment.

Quality is remembered long after the price is forgotten maybe ?


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[davida]

^^
Well said.

[Frakius]

I think there is a certain element of young people into watches, sadly they tend to be the shallow type who buy expensive things to show off on instagram/snapchat etc. I do agree that watch enthusiasm is a pretty small demographic through every age group though, most older people actually only wanted to own one nice watch and wear it indefinitely.

I think watches as status symbols will continue for a long time, and since higher prices increase the the status of a watch (for people who buy things as status symbols) I think increasing prices are here to stay. I do however think at some point prices in the mid tier have to slow down as if they continue at the rate they are above inflation they will move out of the price range that middle class people can save for. At £6k a rolex sports watch is a reasonable sum of money for someone on £30-40k a year.
With salaries stagnating and watch prices increasing, I can see in 5-10 years peoples incomes been roughly the same but a steel sports watch starting at £10k which would eliminate all but the most devoted watch enthusiasts in the middle class income bracket from affording them.

[MB2]

Or until the buyers die out. Unfortunately, young people are not unterested in mechanical watches. Once our generation dies out, the prices of mechanical watches will plummet.

Expect they said that in the 70s and many things enjoy a come back after years spent out of fashion - heavy weight denim jeans etc.

Prices are geared to the CHF so I think will continue to rise long term - I do wonder however if they become so expensive that people will choose something else, it was also interesting to see the Montblanc smart watches - smart watches will come of age at some point, but at the same time there are new boutiques opening in London so the manufacturers seem to feel optimistic still for new sales.

[J J Carter]

IMHO we're already seeing Rolex become unaffordable to middle-class peeps, hence the promotion of Tudor at lower price points.

Watch sales in the UK are being given a temporary boost by tourists who find the watches priced in GDP look good value due to fall in value of £

[Orange Peel]

I don't know if people, especially the younger generation are more or less "into" watches" but I do know that 99% (give or take) of people don't care what watch (if any) they are wearing, let alone what you/we are wearing!
Therefore around 99% of people out there do not perceive mid-high end watches as important and as such not worth spending their hard earned cash on.
They may however blow their wad (fnar fnar) on something else that we in the WIS community see as silly or a waste of money.
My point is that value is a perception of the individual and that things are really only ever worth what someone is prepared to pay for it be that houses, cars and of course watches.
As long as the greedy manufacturers feel people will pay these ridiculous prices the longer they will keep hiking them up.
There will be no revolution however as we all like these over priced luxuries too much to make that sacrifice and withhold our custom.
We therefore have to a degree created our own monster.....

[Orange Peel]

Personally, I used to get hung up on the price tag of my watches and even pass on a purchase if it wasn't priced in line with my perception of a mid to high end watches value.
But back then I was a practicing idiot (where as now I am a fully time served idiot) and no longer hold that view.
I love the quality and feel of a good timepiece and appreciate it's construction and, if I'm honest above all it's appearance. In other words I have to like how it looks and most importantly how it looks on me!
I will bear the RRP in mind of course but no longer have a hang up about it and value it on what it's worth to me.
I would have no hesitation in buying a Rolex SD4000 for £500 providing I knew it was genuine.
On the other hand, If PP or AP ever lowered their prices to the same as Omega I would still dislike most of them with the exception of the traditional dress style watches. Irrelevant of their price label I attach no real value to them for my personal use and would rather own a Seamaster or Sub which, because I like them so much are worth more to me.
I wonder if we were all fully honest if we would like half of what we buy half as much if the RRP were half the price? Perhaps we would, perhaps not but I suspect in many cases we would not as we would then perceive it was not as good or as high end a watch.
there are some lovely watches out there that given another name on the dial would be a forum darling but because the dial says something else is not.
Yes sometimes quality comes with cost, I get that but I wonder if the cost-quality ratio is not a little askew or disproportionate in many cases and we buy on the assumption of quality rather than an informed judgement on what it is worth...to us?

[Orange Peel]

Bottom line is that as long as we and others keep paying thse over inflated prices for perceived and disproportionate cost vs quality we give the greedy manufacturers the clear message that they have got the pricing rip off correct...and it seems they have?
They will keep milking us dry...

[lewwyt]

Grenson brogues rule.....

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Agreed, Grenson are my favourite!

[Montybaber]

I think there is a certain element of young people into watches, sadly they tend to be the shallow type who buy expensive things to show off on instagram/snapchat etc.

Erm... have you seen the Friday thread? ;)

[Frakius]

Erm... have you seen the Friday thread? ;)

Well, of course all the posters here are of varied and discerning taste and would never be so vulgar as to wear a watch as a display of wealth!

[Itsguy]

I expect the top tier brands to continue to charge through the nose and keep increasing, as they are targeting the global super-rich / high net worth individuals, and there are more than enough of them to support a market for extremely expensive watches made in relatively modest numbers. Unfortunately, this puts previously attainable watches out of reach for most.

In the next tier down (which might include the likes of Rolex), watches are a good deal more expensive than they used to be, but for the moment are still within reach for successful middle and higher earners at a stage in their life where they're feeling good, which is their target market. There are plenty of those to support their massive output globally, especially when you consider that most of them are looking for one good watch, as opposed to being mentalists who have collections.

So on that basis I don't see things crashing down, and some parts of the market could continue to rise, as there's a lot of wealth out there. The global market has become bigger, allowing brands to target higher spending customers even while increasing production. However we'll see if the market can support the number of brands aiming for the higher end of the market and looking for a fast buck. The public are gradually becoming more able to tell the difference between marketing and quality.

The unfortunate consequence of all this is that the same amount of money now buys you a worse watch, which seems unfair. It's not as if quality has risen in line with prices. It's a similar story to the housing market in that sense.

Erm... have you seen the Friday thread? ;)

That's different, this is a 'safe space' for addicts!

[Robsmck]

Quite the opposite IMHO. It feeds my craving for more......

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[Caruso]

These are my thoughts for what they're worth. To a greater or lesser extent watches are jewellery for men, although in many cases it's jewellery without much intrinsic value I.e. Stainless Steel. But at the same time some of them are like classic cars whose value is based on exclusivity and emotion rather than cost of materials. I think this means that values are going to be largely driven by market sentiment.

Talk of a peak means we're not there yet, but people are being squeezed out due to pricing which means demand is dropping off.