“The smartwatch subject is an excuse”

[Alansmithee]

RB: Do you envision a change in buying behavior arising because of younger clients with different values, or would it be more due to competition from smartwatches?
Mark A. Hayek: Buying behavior basically has not changed. I notice this, amongst other things, in our boutiques. The subject of the smartwatch is, rather, an excuse — since it is easier for someone to hold the smartwatch responsible for current problems than to admit to making mistakes. In the nineties, when mobile phones began to spread, many “doom merchants” also prophesied that no one would need watches anymore because it was possible to read the time on a mobile [phone] and it could also be done more precisely that way. Today, this has intensified even more because we are surrounded by the time on screens and displays. Interestingly, though, the boom years for the mobile phone were by far the strongest years of growth for mechanical watches. Furthermore, we are talking about a luxury brand which manufactures a few tens of thousands of units per year. This is a completely different market from the smartwatch, which has its niche in the consumer electronics sector. To that extent, we do not expect that a change in consumer behavior, with smartwatches for instance, will have consequences on high-quality watches.

http://www.watchtime.com/wristwatch-...s-marc-a-hayek

Thoughts? Is he right in his assessment?

[markrlondon]

I don't think he is completely correct.

The smartwatch may well be an excuse and I think there are mistakes being made in marketing, sales models and design, but I also think that tastes in buying habits are changing: Convenience is now king in all things. J. C. Biver reconises this.

Hayek refers to his company's boutiques as proof that buying habits haven't changed but boutiques are a sample that suffers from confirmation bias. Of course buying behaviours from boutiques haven't changed, and that's because boutiques are what they are. There is, howeer, now a world outside of boutiques and ADs and these types of premises are no longer so appealing to younger customers. I'd say that, on this point at least, Hayek is the one making the mistake.

[lasz]

One fact he's overlooking - or just not admitting to - is that unlike the smartphone, the smartwatch is strapped to one's wrist and thus in direct competition with the traditional watch in terms of body real estate. I very much doubt that it will become socially acceptable to wear two watch-like contraptions, and if it doesn't (I for one certainly couldn't bother to), you can be sure that there will be attempts by smartwatch makers, beit traditional watch companies or newcomers, to find a way to poach as many luxury watch customers as possible.

Personally, I look forward to the battle, which is bound to bring really interesting concepts and technologies, as well as frantic marketing ploys, but I'm afraid that the outcome will not be to the liking of most of us here.

[topcat666]

I'll stick my neck out.
1.Younger generations will use smartphones and tech linked to them and that might include smartwatches.The mechanical wristwatch market will decline in numbers but from the watch makers' perspective not,they hope,in profit.
2.Wristwatches are perhaps perceived by the majority as a fashion item and there are price tiers linked to choice eg. M&S or Saville Row?
3.Fashion changes so the long term ownership of an expensive item of mechanical jewellery will bring in the factor of price/value to the potential buyer's decision and I think this is something he ignores,preferring to focus on the existing market ie WIS and luxury buyers who will,for different reasons,be less price conscious as prices are raised by the watch makers. In other words,he sees business as usual which from a monopolist's viewpoint is perhaps understandable.
4. I feel the large Swiss groups will seek to raise prices higher,tie in customers to their brands viz servicing and try to sustain their profit levels whilst producing fewer units.
To a monopolist,a monopoly is the most efficient form of competitiion - for themselves and not the customer although the only authority I can readily recall is from Mario Puzo attributing it to Don Corlleone in "The Godfather".
The attitude of Swatch viz independent watch repairers is to be deprecated IMHO and I for one am finding it hard to purchase a Swiss watch as I think Swatch practices regarding parts availability to independents is not confined just to Swatch. The ETA movement sales restriction,if it truly happens,is maybe another problem.
Nomos,here I come!
Sorry about the length of the post and going off piste.

[Griswold]

One fact he's overlooking - or just not admitting to - is that unlike the smartphone, the smartwatch is strapped to one's wrist and thus in direct competition with the traditional watch in terms of body real estate. I very much doubt that it will become socially acceptable to wear two watch-like contraptions, and if it doesn't (I for one certainly couldn't bother to), you can be sure that there will be attempts by smartwatch makers, beit traditional watch companies or newcomers, to find a way to poach as many luxury watch customers as possible.

Personally, I look forward to the battle, which is bound to bring really interesting concepts and technologies, as well as frantic marketing ploys, but I'm afraid that the outcome will not be to the liking of most of us here.

Strange, I've been doing that very thing for 17 months now, as has Lynn, and no one I know or have met have bated an eyelid. One of my 'normal' watches on my left wrist, my FitBit Surge on my right.

Best of both worlds, I have something nice to tel the time with on one wrist and get text/email/phone notifications and control music on my phone on the other. Oh, and I also get my fitness and sleep patterns monitored daily.

[ataripower]

Strange, I've been doing that very thing for 17 months now, as has Lynn, and no one I know or have met have bated an eyelid. One of my 'normal' watches on my left wrist, my FitBit Surge on my right.

Best of both worlds, I have something nice to tel the time with on one wrist and get text/email/phone notifications and control music on my phone on the other. Oh, and I also get my fitness and sleep patterns monitored daily.

Agreed, I wear my Gear Fit as well as my watch. I have had the odd comment asking 'why do I have two watches' but mostly no-one notices or cares. I am seeing more and more people wearing both a watch and a fitness/notification device.

[Alansmithee]

Strange, I've been doing that very thing for 17 months now, as has Lynn, and no one I know or have met have bated an eyelid. One of my 'normal' watches on my left wrist, my FitBit Surge on my right.

Best of both worlds, I have something nice to tel the time with on one wrist and get text/email/phone notifications and control music on my phone on the other. Oh, and I also get my fitness and sleep patterns monitored daily.

Same here - I have a watch on my left wrist and a fitbit on the right - nobody notices.

[Ribena36]

I've noticed a couple of guys at work wearing both mechanical and smart watches. I can see the practicality of it but don't think I could get used to it.


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[fordy964]

First I tried the Fitbit on my right wrist (given one from work) with a proper watch on the left which was OK for a while until I got bored of the limited gadgetry in the Fitbit. It lies lifeless in the gadget drawer alongside the one I bought for my wife.

Then I tried the Garmin Fenix 3 HR which although really good as a versatile fitness tracker (I loved the swimming and cycling functions), it was just way too big and took away from proper watch time. Every time I wanted to use it the battery was dead. They are popular so I sold it before it became obsolete and worthless.

So then I tried the Apple Watch which lasted only a couple of days before that got tossed into the gadget drawer too. Its now obsolete and worthless.

Never looked in that section of Dixon's ever since.

[Muddy D]

I'm looking forward to the innovations to come out of the smartwatch competition. There are already some great hybrid watches out there by established watch manufacturers if you look around enough. Has anyone seen the Zetime watch which was funded on Kickstarter? It is the first touch screen watch with a mechanical movement for the hands. It's worth a look if you're interested in how new and existing technologies are being combined.

[RobDad]

I no longer partake in the London commute - where I'd daily spot iconic TZ watch models - and now live in a more rural area where the most common watch I see (beyond your usual cheap fashion watches) is the Apple Watch, in fact it's almost the only watch I'll ever spot on somebody under 30. Maybe the big brands like Omega and Rolex needn't worry yet, as they still seem like an aspirational brand for those that care about that sort of thing. I'm not saying the Apple Watch is any good, but they'll only get better and seem to enjoy a huge following already for a watch which can't even display the time continually, and needs regular charging. A few generations down the line and I genuinely think a huge proportion of the population will be exclusively wearing a smart watch. Ps wearing a smart watch and another mechanical looks a bit silly doesn't it?!?


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[ataripower]

I no longer partake in the London commute - where I'd daily spot iconic TZ watch models - and now live in a more rural area where the most common watch I see (beyond your usual cheap fashion watches) is the Apple Watch, in fact it's almost the only watch I'll ever spot on somebody under 30. Maybe the big brands like Omega and Rolex needn't worry yet, as they still seem like an aspirational brand for those that care about that sort of thing. I'm not saying the Apple Watch is any good, but they'll only get better and seem to enjoy a huge following already for a watch which can't even display the time continually, and needs regular charging. A few generations down the line and I genuinely think a huge proportion of the population will be exclusively wearing a smart watch. Ps wearing a smart watch and another mechanical looks a bit silly doesn't it?!?


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Wearing a mechanical watch and a smart watch does look daft. However, a band type device looks just about acceptable. In any case, nobody really notices.

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[RobDad]

Wearing a mechanical watch and a smart watch does look daft. However, a band type device looks just about acceptable. In any case, nobody really notices.

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I agree actually, I wore a Fitbit that looks like a slim band for about a week before I realised it was totally inaccurate and a waste of time! I wore it on the opposite wrist from my watch and it looked more like a charity wristband than a smart watch. It was about as useful as a charity wristband too, sadly, and seemed to count sitting at my desk as exercise, whilst when I walked home it would massively over count my efforts. I'm amazed people still wear them actually, more of a placebo imho


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[walkerwek1958]

I couldn't imagine wearing a fitbit, no use whatsoever to me and they look a bit naff too. As for smartwatches, they look even more naff in my opinion. I can understand the yoof being attracted to these devices .........but surely not the grown-ups!

Despite my opinions I'm realistic enough to accept that fitbits and smartwatches are here to stay and will continue to grow in popularity. The conventional watch will appeal to a shrinking market; so far the Swiss manufacturers seem to be in denial on this point and there are distinct parallels with the situation in the 70s when the quartz revolution caught them off guard. Rather than trying to promote conventional watches as luxury items I think they should be doing everything to maintain/promote them at all levels, and that includes free availability of parts to maintain the things at fair prices.

Paul

[markrlondon]

there are distinct parallels with the situation in the 70s when the quartz revolution caught them off guard. Rather than trying to promote conventional watches as luxury items I think they should be doing everything to maintain/promote them at all levels, and that includes free availability of parts to maintain the things at fair prices.

I think you're right. And I think that most of them won't do that until it's too late.




A longer term prediction: Swatch Group will get broken up.