Reply With QuoteAlready covered:
http://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.ph...ex-Sea-dweller
Offers over £14.5k
That didn't take long at all. And its price on application, I wonder what ridiculous price they will be charging to own the sparkly new rolex release. Things are just getting a tad over the top with supply and demand these days. Heres the link:
http://www.watchfinder.co.uk/Rolex/S...029/item/88391
Already covered:
http://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.ph...ex-Sea-dweller
Offers over £14.5k
A watch team I know well were discussing where they would price an SD43 earlier today.
They'll not deliberately engage with speculative markets until they stabilise, but think that the unprecedented number of desirable models (BLNR, D-Blue, Daytona, SD43, steel SkyDweller, even 116610s) makes some, at least, precarious investments. There is a grave risk of catching a falling sword with some of these.
They think the D-Blue will fall in value unless production is stopped. Its appeal will be diluted by the SD43 above all. They have a client who had four and, they think, still has three...
The Daytona has already begun the slow decline their boss predicted and will continue quietly to inch lower until a new paradigm -- albeit still at a significant premium to RRP -- is reached. They expect to see unworn and stickered examples more commonly nearer £13k by the year end.
The BLNR defies gravity. It seems from many forum posts that one may obtain a new one soon enough if one tries, yet demand extends so far into the "real world" (beyond watch fora) that they sell at a significant premium almost as quickly as put into stock.
The SD43 and SkyDweller will enjoy prices variously sustained depending on the numbers made available. As this will be an unknown, they cannot yet know what premium the market will bear.
Their conclusion was to let others take the early, uncertain bet. They see a realistic, conservative spread being to pay around £1,000 over list for an unworn SD43 and sell for about £1,000 more again. This would be not a million miles from D-Blue pricing, as it happens. In the next week or two these thoughts will be out of date and they will have the makings of a clearer market to base prices on. There is never a "right" answer, but equally no one can force the market where it doesn't want to go. Others will be bolder in these very first days : bon chance!
Can't remember whose watch team it was, but the boss is a handsome fellow.
H
Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 4th May 2017 at 00:17.
Out in Asia I am gobsmacked by the constant obsession on here on speculative Rolex prices.
Seems similar to the British 'fetish' about house prices. Why would reduced affordability be a positive thing? Maybe it is a British trait?
It is worth noting that sometimes the finger is pointed at us in the trade for ‘Over-Inflating’ the prices. We don’t over inflate them the people who sell them to us do and the pocket dealers in Hatton gardens with no overheads making £250-£500 a watch do.
If a watch is sold for under, equal to or over RRP then the margin is the same, we are not buying the Daytona etc for retail and making thousands the private seller is (who pays no tax or overheads) and we make a reasonable margin which is what all business does from the guys selling you coffee to clothes to your car.
Early days for this watch and as Milton points out his company are being cautious equally I have had clients this week been offered less and more than I would so they will walk to the money everytime. At the end of the day it is an exciting watch at this time but its just another watch to the trade and in many ways most would rather be selling the less exciting stuff.
RIAC
I'd like to say I care, but mom always said 'don't tell lies'.
Clicking on and reading the thread, before making this valuable addition, would suggest otherwise!Originally Posted by number2
Picked up a SD43 and asked Watchfinder how much they would buy for to test the market. They offered £11k but I didn't sell. Wanted to see if the hype was real or imagined by me.
Going to get a valuation for insurance purposes because once bought it isn't an £8k watch anymore.
Smarty pants.
I'm not sure that can be done, the valuation would be replacement value which the insurer would look at as the current retail cost, it been discussed before in reference to the SS Daytona
Interesting. Are these really so hard to come by? I have access to 3 with absolutely no issues whatsoever, 1 in UK and 2 in Thailand and in the case of the latter it was simply a case of calling my usual AD in Bangkok 3 days ago saying I was flying in on the 12th and did they have any and she said they had 4 But weren't allowed to put them on sale yet and only 1 was a pre order (they are now available for sale). So she's stuck 2 aside. Thai pricing is slightly higher than UK but there is a 5% tax refund and I'm getting 5% off RRP for buying 2. So this is no Daytona situation.
So obviously I'm not an expert but I have a strong suspicion these will end up being like the Sub - not available to all just as a walk in but if you know what you are doing you can get one in a day or so.
As an FYI gents please don't send me PMs to try and source one for you as I simply can't, sorry.
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You can get an agreed value with specialist insurers though? I wouldn't contemplate buying something at many thousands over RRP unless I was sure my insurer would fund a like-for-like replacement. Indeed even if you pay RRP how would you replace it if lost/stolen?
Yeah specialist would be an option I guess but is that worth it for a 1-2k current premium which is likely to drop etc.
Discontinued and certain rare models maybe but my standard insurance said they only pay current retail or market value if item is no longer available.
There was a post on TRF a while back, and the poster said an AD had told him there would be a lot of these available, right from release.
Could be absolute BS, but all those jumping aboard could get an awful stinging if it's true.
It would be cunning move from Rolex when you think about it, it would certainly make people think twice about speculating on new releases.
And do you think that Rolex wants that? It loves the fact that some models sell for more than rrp on the grey market. Would there be a 5 yr wait for a ceramic Daytona if it were worth only 5k after a year?
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Certainly the best way to stop speculators is to put plenty of the watches out there in the first place. As dealers have said on numerous threads in WT, they don't get excited about the particular watch, it's still small margins if they have to buy big and sell big.
I'm not convinced they love the grey market as you suggest, they've closed a lot of ADs found supplying to greys.
One close to home to us, for example.
If Watchfinder are paying 11k and selling at £14.5+ you might need to up your prices H.....
Ha! I'm quite happy to let them "buy bad business" and wish good luck to sellers who get the benefit of it while they do. Watchfinder do not set the market price any more than I. As I've said, a clearer market will form in a week or two and increasingly thereafter. With that will come greater confidence in pricing and the "spread" will reduce.If Watchfinder are paying 11k and selling at £14.5+ you might need to up your prices H.....
It's a mug's game to chase prices of such watches in an unknown market.
I wouldn't have the cheek to ask the prices Watchfinder do for most watches.
I'd like to think I'm neither a mug nor a sheep!
H
Let alone with this watch where they're not even offering it at an inflated price, but essentially a hugely inflated starting bid. If I offered them £14750, they'd then go to their manager who would say let's see if someone offers £15000. Makes the "immediate delivery" statement rather irrelevant.
Gawd I hate this side of Rolex! I'm not on a Day to a list - don't like it, took my name off the GMT list when no Coke was announced and my SD43 sits on my wrist coz I love 'dwellers and chased this one. Drop, rise or stabilise makes no difference.
Not Day to, but Daytona!
deleted
Agree with the above - cant see this watch being another "Daytona". No one cared about the previous gen so I would like to think the fuss will be over pretty quick, unless Rolex really restrict supply at a crazy level
Last edited by kultschar; 4th May 2017 at 13:44.
Hit the nail right on the head Haywood. If only all dealers followed you way of thinking. We would not have the stupid ridiculous prices everywhere on the net.
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Yes a very sad loss. J is a great guy.
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Been offered one today for 12k?
Didn't bite.....
Blowers have one as well just under 13k which undercuts watchfinder. Over RRP when not purchasing brand new even though they are mint is still ridiculous IMO. I love the watch, but its all getting a bit crazy with the pricing.
Blowers may be charging less than Watchfinder on this model, but their prices on the Cameron Deep Blue are absolutely crazy, way above what others are asking.
I steer clear of yo-yo dealers and prefer to give my business to those who seem to operate a sensible price structure across the range. I have no objections to paying a market price, but pricing a watch £2k over market price is either greedy or exploiting the passing trade because of where you are located.
Last edited by Wallasey Runner; 4th May 2017 at 23:03.
Yep it's a £8350 watch of which there are a number of people who have picked one up at that price.
I think this is one watch that in a few months will be easy to find at RRP* unlike the Daytona.
*I have been wrong before so my wife says.
No doubt just the same margin in it as all their other watches... NOT !
Even if I was wildly rich I wouldn't dream of paying over the odds to these types of grey dealers. Shady stuff.
I hope your right. I love this watch but cant justify 4k over market value. Hopefully it will be similar to the deep sea which are trending around 6k ish on the second hand market. Would take a while to get to that level I imagine but I can always hope.
I understand most here don't pay above RRP. I wouldn't. But surely if you have a watch business, and had customers willing to pay a premium you would do exactly the same.
I agree WF seems to have a very high buying price but im not sure if they really are profitable?
Will see what Haywood puts one up for sale for
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The real test of whether WF has the right business model is whether they are still around in a few years.
I think these will go nutty but not quite as much as the ceramic daytonas
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And its SOLD
One gullible city wide-boy doth not a summer make .....though it is hard not to feel that Watchfinder hasn't found a breeding colony of them somewhere.And its SOLD
It will be nice see what you price one up for Haywood
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Haywood has already said the thoughts of his team were a grand for the seller and a grand for the shop - so logically £10k. I am waiting for his prediction of the prices of the Daytona to start coming down to take effect.Will see what Haywood puts one up for sale for
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Why else do you think they have a shop in Canary Wharf?
Oh I see he not actually priced one on the website yet as not sure he has one. Will see it wont last long at 10k as every where else a lot more.
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Last edited by bokbok; 5th May 2017 at 10:33.
Who knows these sky rocket or one won't be able to get one for 5 years and by then the price may be the same lol it's hard to say what's stupid these days! it was considered idiotic when daytonas were selling for £13k and now they are £15650!
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FTFY :-)
If the most expensive dealers appear to be selling them for £12k by the end of the month, I'd look to sell one for closer to £11k. This isn't because I'm magnificently charitable to my clients, but because I feel the sort of names we mention set their prices that far above a sensible market price. Be under no illusion that I won't sell a watch for more, if I think it reasonable for a normal client-base.
H
Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 5th May 2017 at 10:57.
1. Watchfinder are very profitable - check their company accounts. They do tend to offer the Best Buy in price for in demand watches as they have a big retail footprint to satisfy.
2. I was told by my AD that they are not expecting to get another SD126600 this year which would be less than the number of ceramic Daytonas they will get. They are quite a big Rolex AD.
3. My guess is that the 126600 will trade at a significant premium to RRP for some time and this premium will be of the order of £4K
They have enjoyed a fair wind with price rises 2008-2017 helping in no small part. It is an interesting model and I watch with interest. They have certainly contributed to the inflation of secondhand prices in the UK, for which I thank them but others here may not!
H
And yet Bangkok ADs seem to be awash with the things so perhaps Rolex are allocating lots to the Far Eastern markets? Anyone here in HK/SIN who can comment as those are big hubs for watches?
I heard from a dealer they expect one a month, could be BS though but they were happy to take my name if I wanted one so I don't see this being another Daytona.
Watch distribution and availability varies widely across the globe. Watches which are very difficult to get in one market can be found very easily in others. I tend to travel a lot and have observed and benefited from this phenomenon as have you with your frequent trips to Thailand. Watch tastes also seem to vary in various markets which can also have a big impact.
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