Formula 1 2017

[jaytip]

Severing their ties with Honda would cost McLaren c.$100m plus the cost of a Mercedes engine deal.

For a team without significant sponsorship.

How are they supposed to do that, then?

Well they are not just a formula 1 team anymore.
They have a very successful road car division which I would imagine is profitable.
When you say severing their ties would cost them $100M do you means they wouldn't get $100M or that they would have to pay Honda $100M, because they are two very different things. I would imagine that if a legal wrangle went to court they would have very good grounds of 'not fit for purpose re the Honda Engine.
If the former, I firmly believe that they would find a way, they have done ok for 54 years and that is without having road cars bringing money in.
Bottom line is, that engine could end up sinking an historic racing team.

[Backward point]

You're doing a lot of "imagining".

Honda supply the engines, sponsorship and pay the drivers' salaries. This is believed to be worth $100m per season. A supply of Mercedes engines is, allegedly, (based on the negotiations over Valtteri Bottas's move to Mercedes) €17m per season. Which gives a funding shortfall in the order of $115m.

I don't know how much the McLaren road car division is worth, or how much profit it makes, but you may be confusing profit with turnover. And "imagining" a willingness to endanger the road car business by siphoning off funds to shore up what is now a back-marking Formula 1 team.

Don't think that a Mercedes engine will make McLaren a winning team. How many Mercedes customer teams have won races since 2014? In 2014 they managed to under-achieve with a Mercedes power unit.

Right now they have to build a very expensive new wind tunnel or comprehensively refurbish the existing one, as they suffered the dreaded "correlation" issues, where on-track reality doesn't correlate with wind tunnel results. At the moment, McLaren are using the Toyota wind tunnel in Cologne, as other teams, including Mercedes and Ferrari, have been forced to do.

McLaren haven't won a race since 2012, half a decade ago. It's not just about the engine.

McLaren's best - perhaps only - hope is Japanese culture and pride. Honda's reputation as one of the world's best engine builders is currently being savaged, because once a fortnight for most of the year their power units are failing in front of an estimated tv audience of 16 billion people. Walking away would result in even greater humiliation, so they will need to resolve their issues. Although they are now in their third season, they have elected to start again, with a new engine layout, which has resulted in vibration problems, which did not affect their previous engines. So, for the second time in three years they have to develop a new engine in public. And, according to Gary Anderson, who experienced Japanese culture and working practices when he was with Jordan and used Mugen engines, nothing happens quickly or without a great deal of bureaucracy. And Formula 1 needs things to happen quickly. Imagine the difference between McLaren Honda and Mercedes or Ferrari, where everything is in-house apart from a very few fabrication jobs which are outsourced. The logistics, language and cultural barriers are mind-boggling.

Formula 1 is rather more complicated these days, and the era in which Honda could supply engines which were more powerful than any of their rivals and the teams who used them could produce cars with more downforce than anybody else is long gone.

I feel sorry for Eric Boullier. He had to manage Lotus on loaves and fishes, and now has to manage the very public tragic shambles that is McLaren. I'm sure that he's a nice chap, and a very capable manager, but he does seem to be rather unlucky.

[Utred]

Well they are not just a formula 1 team anymore.
They have a very successful road car division which I would imagine is profitable.
When you say severing their ties would cost them $100M do you means they wouldn't get $100M or that they would have to pay Honda $100M, because they are two very different things. I would imagine that if a legal wrangle went to court they would have very good grounds of 'not fit for purpose re the Honda Engine.
If the former, I firmly believe that they would find a way, they have done ok for 54 years and that is without having road cars bringing money in.
Bottom line is, that engine could end up sinking an historic racing team.

Thoughts (as opposed to informed opinion)....

Is their road car business not built on the back of the F1 success.....its basically their advertising budget as such? Even whilst not successful they are in the top tier of motorsport. I'm not saying they should be ploughing money in, but I can't help think that the road car business sales would see a decent drop without F1

I suspect Ferrari could survive without F1 team now, as they are "the" brand and probably more owners have no knowledge or clue about F1 than the likes of McClaren, where surely you opt for one because you know of them through motorsport?

Sent from my SM-G950F using TZ-UK mobile app

[jaytip]

You're doing a lot of "imagining".
Of course I am, I don't work for McLaren so I'm envisioning what could possibly be done
Honda supply the engines, sponsorship and pay the drivers' salaries. This is believed to be worth $100m per season. A supply of Mercedes engines is, allegedly, (based on the negotiations over Valtteri Bottas's move to Mercedes) €17m per season. Which gives a funding shortfall in the order of $115m.

I don't know how much the McLaren road car division is worth, or how much profit it makes, but you may be confusing profit with turnover. And "imagining" a willingness to endanger the road car business by siphoning off funds to shore up what is now a back-marking Formula 1 team.
Nope, I'm not confusing turn over with profit. A quick look at McLarens website shows a profit last year of £23.5M. Didn't Ferarri once upon a time only sell road cars to fund their racing? I'm not suggesting that McLaren are doing the same, but it IS an avenue of extra income.
Don't think that a Mercedes engine will make McLaren a winning team. How many Mercedes customer teams have won races since 2014? In 2014 they managed to under-achieve with a Mercedes power unit.
I agree with you, it won't make them a winning team straight away, but as long as they can start getting back up the field, they will start attracting sponsors again, plus as we all know, the more points they get, the more money they get.
Right now they have to build a very expensive new wind tunnel or comprehensively refurbish the existing one, as they suffered the dreaded "correlation" issues, where on-track reality doesn't correlate with wind tunnel results. At the moment, McLaren are using the Toyota wind tunnel in Cologne, as other teams, including Mercedes and Ferrari, have been forced to do.

McLaren haven't won a race since 2012, half a decade ago. It's not just about the engine.
Again, while winning championships is the ultimate goal, it isn't strictly necessary to survive in F1. A decent engine will help them tread water, right now they are sinking.
McLaren's best - perhaps only - hope is Japanese culture and pride. Honda's reputation as one of the world's best engine builders is currently being savaged, because once a fortnight for most of the year their power units are failing in front of an estimated tv audience of 16 billion people. Walking away would result in even greater humiliation, so they will need to resolve their issues. Although they are now in their third season, they have elected to start again, with a new engine layout, which has resulted in vibration problems, which did not affect their previous engines. So, for the second time in three years they have to develop a new engine in public. And, according to Gary Anderson, who experienced Japanese culture and working practices when he was with Jordan and used Mugen engines, nothing happens quickly or without a great deal of bureaucracy. And Formula 1 needs things to happen quickly. Imagine the difference between McLaren Honda and Mercedes or Ferrari, where everything is in-house apart from a very few fabrication jobs which are outsourced. The logistics, language and cultural barriers are mind-boggling.
I disagree. Culture and pride didn't stop Honda walking away from F1 when Brawn stepped up and bought the team. At the end of the day it's a business, and an engine that fails in every race is going to be a bad advertisement for business.
Formula 1 is rather more complicated these days, and the era in which Honda could supply engines which were more powerful than any of their rivals and the teams who used them could produce cars with more downforce than anybody else is long gone.

I feel sorry for Eric Boullier. He had to manage Lotus on loaves and fishes, and now has to manage the very public tragic shambles that is McLaren. I'm sure that he's a nice chap, and a very capable manager, but he does seem to be rather unlucky.

I truly hope that McLaren can find a way out of this and relatively soon. I got into F1 when Mika Hakkinen was driving for them and they have been the team I have always rooted for since, through the highs and lows, so maybe it has an effect on my wishful thinking and way out of their current dilemma.
I guess time will tell.

[Backward point]

I truly hope that McLaren can find a way out of this and relatively soon. I got into F1 when Mika Hakkinen was driving for them and they have been the team I have always rooted for since, through the highs and lows, so maybe it has an effect on my wishful thinking and way out of their current dilemma.
I guess time will tell.

I'm not sure that your rose-tinted view of McLaren's chances of recovering their way out of their current predicament owes much to the hard-nosed reality of Formula 1.

McLaren felt, probably correctly, that they could not succeed as a customer team, so they went looking for an alternative engine supplier. Unfortunately, despite their history, Honda haven't delivered, and their power unit lacks power and reliability, and you need both in today's sport. Both parties appear committed to the project, Honda because they need to recover their global reputation and McLaren because they can't afford to go anywhere else without an injection of funding in the order of $110m - $120m. Which is what it would cost them in order to run around in the midfield, so not an attractive proposition for a sponsor, or enticing enough for one of the existing shareholders to increase their investment.

When Enzo Ferrari sold road cars to fund his fledgling racing team the world was a very different place. McLaren road cars might need to put something in the order of $80m per year into the Formula 1 team for it to run customer engines even if some major sponsors come forward. That's not feasible, or viable. The road car division cannot subsidise the Formula 1 team, nor would they be able to. The owners need to protect their own investment, and if there is Bank borrowing this would inevitably be secured by charges over the assets of the road car division and shares in the parent Company, with covenants to ensure that the value of the shares and other assets is not eroded. So the Group must remain profitable at all times, and retain profits to fund future investment in facilities and R&D. Throwing money into a failing Formula 1 team is therefore not an option.

That McLaren "used to be good" is not enough. Vanwall, Cooper, Lotus, Brabham "used to be good". Evolution is a bitch.

[Huertecilla]

Tough for McLaren yet they do not get the brunt of the blame. Also the Alonso outing to Indy may see them get huge exposure in the US as the car is branded a McLaren. This may very well give their car business a huge boost. F1 marketing does not sell many cars in the US but Indy does so is may even be a windfall for McLaren.

But...what about Honda?
Much like Seiko, Honda has spread into other enterprises but unlike Seiko, motor vehicles are still their core business by far.
They have other racing enterprises where they are successful but F1 has the most exposure. They cannot back out without total loss of face which is simply not an option and they have stuck out the neck further with the Sauber contract.
The only way out I see is the development limit being dropped.

Meanwhile in Spain, Alonso refused to speak with Hasegawa after FP3. Understandable but not correct at all.

[CardShark]

Just like stocks and shares, past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is a shame that both McLaren and Honda are in the state that they are however it's of their own making, not that they deserve it. Time will tell how well they hang on in there, and I think that we'd all rather they pick themselves up rather than continue to embarrassingly flounder at every race. McLaren Automotive shouldn't/can't be used to financially support the F1 team for reasons already stated, and the road car division has done exceptionally well considering that the race team last won on a Sunday 5 years ago, the DC 9 years ago and the CC 19 years ago!

Would Ron Dennis want to be back at the helm? Would it make any difference if he was? To answer the last question I'd say no.

[PickleB]

Might QP be delayed: Weather FX?

That's been updated to "small risk of shower"...10% this afternoon and <5% tomorrow.

[CardShark]

The only way out I see is the development limit being dropped.

There are no development limits, in that the points system was scrapped and each team is free to update as and when they please. The amount of development computing power that can be thrown at the car is limited and so is wind tunnel time (and isn't there something about the size/scale of the wt models used as well??) however each team has much more freedom this season than years previous.

[Huertecilla]

There are no development limits, in that the points system was scrapped and each team is free to update as and when they please. The amount of development computing power that can be thrown at the car is limited and so is wind tunnel time (and isn't there something about the size/scale of the wt models used as well??) however each team has much more freedom this season than years previous.

You are of course correct; I confused the grid penalties which are still in place.

Small light point is the Alonso being ´only´ 1.8-and-a-bit seconds off Raikkonen in FP3. Still not quick enough for Alonso to be civil with Hasagawa.

The fire test has started now.

[jaytip]

I suppose one way of freeing up funds is to pay Alonso off and get a paying driver in. That would really boost the coffers.
If they were a front running team I would say hold on to Alonso at all costs but running around at the back of the field, I think he is just a financial drain on their resources.

[Huertecilla]

I suppose one way of freeing up funds is to pay Alonso off and get a paying driver in. That would really boost the coffers.
If they were a front running team I would say hold on to Alonso at all costs but running around at the back of the field, I think he is just a financial drain on their resources.

They are making the most of him with he side step to Indy. That is giving McLaren huge coverage. In the US wayway more than in F1.

[CardShark]

£25mil p/a - that's some salary! Honda could put that money to other uses and even with their current woes I'd imagine that there would be a queue of newbies around the block that would be happy to sit in Alonso's seat - as long as their own sponsors would be prepared to cover the costs and be associated with a failing team... I wonder what SvD honestly makes of his situation?

There are pros to having someone like FA on the team. Development and leadership experience count for a lot and having his name associated with the team will bring its benefits even if it's not currently working like that the other way around!

[Backward point]

There's a rumour doing the rounds, reported in Auto Bild, that Zak Brown and Mansour Ojjeh have been spotted in deep conversation with Toto Wolff in the Mercedes motorhome at Barcelona.

[Tokyo Tokei]

There's a rumour doing the rounds, reported in Auto Bild, that Zak Brown and Mansour Ojjeh have been spotted in deep conversation with Toto Wolff in the Mercedes motorhome at Barcelona.

A little more on that here http://gpguide.com/News.aspx?article...l0IC0gcmVwb3J0

[Huertecilla]

Real close qualifying!!

Since Mercedes always have a bit extra in that mode, it promises a strong Ferari and even some Red Bull challenge for tomorrow.

Alonso in Q3 for once in along time. Still 1,9 secs off the pace but at least he can see the top runners on the straight. In the second lap.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

Bottas has put in a strong performance - should make for an interesting race!.

[Andyg]

I'm just hoping that Hamilton can make it through the first lap this year.

[Huertecilla]

During qualifying btw, Vettel again showed good savvy.
Only just out, he was told to immediately stop the car at the side of the track.
He doubted that and decided to try reach the pit lane.
During that time a change of settings solved the ´issue´ and he cracked on with it.

[Backward point]

That was some qualifying session for Alonso - that car has no right to qualify seventh, but he's dragged it round and could, given that he's the wiliest fox in the hen house, come out of the first corner in third or fourth!

From then on, obviously, given the lack of straight line speed, he'll be a sitting duck on the straights. Maybe Liberty should charge viewers to listen in to the McLaren onboard radio. I'd pay for it.

His team-mate, who must be wondering what has happened to his career, will start last, as he has become the first driver to take a grid penalty as he's run out of part of his power unit. Not sure which part, but it won't be the last.

[Huertecilla]

The DRS zones have been extended because this track offers just about no opportunities for overtaking.
With the Merc boys on the clean side of the track, I cannot see the Ferraris going for the lead in the first corners.
The track is hard on the rubber so there will be two and possibly even three stops.
Thus I am crossing fingers that it will not be another booooring pit stop strategy non on track overtaking event.

[Utred]

The DRS zones have been extended because this track offers just about no opportunities for overtaking.
With the Merc boys on the clean side of the track, I cannot see the Ferraris going for the lead in the first corners.
The track is hard on the rubber so there will be two and possibly even three stops.
Thus I am crossing fingers that it will not be another booooring pit stop strategy non on track overtaking event.

Me too...... nothing worse than seeing it won from pretty much just the strategy in the pit lane! Action is where the future most surely lie.

Sent from my SM-G950F using TZ-UK mobile app

[PickleB]

The stewards have been busy...and now the strategies are unfolding...


Is Bottas good enough to keep Vettel behind him...?

[Chris_in_the_UK]

I suspect there will be some nervous faces in the Mercedes pit!.

[PickleB]

Lap 50...let the battle of the tyres commence.

Edit: I imagined it...so glad that Räikkönen / Ferrari made it come true...

[Backward point]

Tv pictures showed a little lad in the crowd wearing a Ferrari shirt and hat sobbing his heart out when Kimi went out. Just showed him in the Ferrari hospitality unit with Kimi!

Well done Ferrari, and anybody else who made that happen!

[PickleB]

Tv pictures showed a little lad in the crowd wearing a Ferrari shirt and hat sobbing his heart out when Kimi went out. Just showed him in the Ferrari hospitality unit with Kimi!

Well done Ferrari, and anybody else who made that happen!

Did you see him jumping up and down when Vettel passed Bottas? It seems Ferrari have a real fan...

[Backward point]

Did you see him jumping up and down when Vettel went in front of Hamilton? It seems Ferrari have a real fan...

Yes! Liberty need to sign him up for publicity purposes!

[Backward point]

It's actually been an excellent race, and a few surprises - I've just seen Marcus Ericsson overtake someone!

[PickleB]

It's actually been an excellent race, and a few surprises - I've just seen Marcus Ericsson overtake someone!

Might Button have a car with an engine for Monaco?

Edit: Twitter progression:

Did you see him jumping up and down when Vettel passed Bottas? It seems Ferrari have a real fan...

• Tweet 1 RAI is out..
• Tweet 2 VET passes BOT
• Tweet 3 The smiles just keep getting bigger...Nice one, Kimi

Edit2: And an interview...www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRdC208DZNc

[Lampoc]

Is there any point to Lance Stroll or Jolyon Palmer? What a waste of seats.

[Backward point]

Is there any point to Lance Stroll or Jolyon Palmer? What a waste of seats.

I think that, for Williams, there were 20 million "points" to Lance Stroll.

I do feel that he (and Palmer) are struggling to come to terms with Formula 1, although both seem to have the pedigree - Stroll won the European F3 title, Palmer won GP2. Both were shown up comprehensively by their team mates today.

[Andyg]

Great stuff between Lewis and Vettel - right result

hate to think what would have happened if they had both crashed when Lewis came out of the pits. Squeaky bum time for both, but especially Lewis.

[Lampoc]

I think that, for Williams, there were 20 million "points" to Lance Stroll.

I do feel that he (and Palmer) are struggling to come to terms with Formula 1, although both seem to have the pedigree - Stroll won the European F3 title, Palmer won GP2. Both were shown up comprehensively by their team mates today.

Yes, I'm pretty sure I could have been a racing driver too if my dad was a billionaire. Fair enough, it's Lance's first season but both are being comprehensively shown up at every race meeting. There must be good odds on Jolyon being replaced sooner rather than later.

[Huertecilla]

Me too...... nothing worse than seeing it won from pretty much just the strategy in the pit lane! Action is where the future most surely lie.

Not sure what to think of this race.

There was some action, the race won by Bottas, only 3 cars in the same lap, with the 3rd man on the podium a minute behind.

[CardShark]

Had to put up with C4's highlights, couldn't watch the race live today. Great race with a decent amount of on track action, a terrific win for Lewis and a brilliant result for the championship. It's tough at the top, and long may it continue.

Credit to Force India, their result was undeniably due to a few retirements however Ocon has finished in the top 10 again and they always appear to be there ready and waiting to pick up points lost by others. Wehrlein and Sauber must be happy that they've scored some financially rewarding points, they're got to make the most of this year with Honda "power" on the horizon...

McLaren's first race finish as well, Alonso left for the airport straight after the race finished as he's due to be driving around an oval tomorrow.

[jaytip]

Ferrari pulled a PR masterpiece by getting that kid into the hospitality suite and meeting Kimi.

[petethegeek]

Some nice photos here demonstrating you don't need a state of the art camera to capture the atmosphere of a Grand Prix - http://www.boredpanda.com/photograph...a-joshua-paul/



Just forethought and strong neck muscles. (With perhaps a touch of talent.)

[Jeremy67]

McLaren build their own engines (incl. hybrid) for their road cars. I wonder if they have conducted any feasibility projects in to doing their own F1 engine. Yes it would cost a bomb but they could always find an engine sponsor (because they are so good at that these days), a la Tag, calling it a Sansung engine or a Pepsi engine etc.

[CardShark]

As I understand it Ricardo design (in conjunction with McLaren) and build all McLaren road car engines, most of the input comes from them at cost to McLaren. Ricardo are a highly specialised and very well respected company - they also build the Veyron/Chiron gearbox for example and do plenty of other consultancy work - the jump from road car to full on race powertrain is massive and probably beyond their capabilities. I'd be surprised if there hadn't been a feasibility study however with Honda not only supplying engines FOC but also covering some of the race team's bills financially it just wouldn't stack up.

[Backward point]

It's May, so it's Monaco!

A magnet for the hyper-rich, the great and the good, as well as many who are none of those things, the Monaco Grand Prix has become a place to see, and be seen, and not necessarily in that order. The paddock, such as it is, will be awash with "celebrities" of all descriptions, many of whom would need an explanation as to which end of a Formula 1 car is which.

There is much interest this year at both extremities of the Formula 1 food chain - victory is likely to go to one of the "big three", with Ferrari believed to have the better car for the job, given that it's a bit lighter than the Mercedes, more compliant, agile, and easier to drive. Red Bull have some more aero updates, and as Monaco is all about downforce, everybody will be running the biggest wings that they can fit. Max Verstappen will be anxious to improve his Monaco record of having crashed spectacularly out of the race on both of his Grand Prix appearances so far.

At the opposite end of the pit lane is McLaren, who have the media spotlight on them to an even greater extent this weekend, thanks to the contracturally-driven temporary un-retirement of Jenson Button in the absence of Fernando Alonso. Button seems relaxed about the weekend, and his prospects of scoring McLaren's first points of the year, the only team yet to trouble the scorers.

In other news, Mr and Mrs Raikkonen have been blessed by the arrival of a daughter, who appears to have been called Rihanna. Kimi assured Ted Kravitz on Sky that he's not having sleepless nights "because I'm not feeding her".

That's it for now. This year's race is being touted as the fastest ever at Monaco, because the cars have more power this year, more downforce, and are, of course, wider. What could possibly go wrong?

[TBKBABAB]

Wonder how long Jensen will stay relaxed and smiling for, It could be the shortest comeback ever....

[Backward point]

I suspect that Button's only concern this weekend is that Alonso doesn't decide that he likes racing in Indycar.

Otherwise, it's his first drive of a new breed of Formula 1 car, and there's absolutely no weight of expectation on him this weekend, other than the tosh being spouted on the internet.

[Backward point]

Power Unit element usage prior to Monaco:

https://www.pitpass.com/59141/Monaco...-Unit-elements

Which seems to imply that grid penalties are looming for many, and that Force India and Williams make their drivers pay for their own power unit components.

Tyre choices for the weekend are Soft, Supersoft and Ultrasoft. Predictably. Minimum tyre pressures have been reduced for Monaco, and in other tyre-related news Pirelli have withdrawn the Hard tyre for Silverstone, so it will be Medium, Soft and Ultrasoft.

[Tuna1138]

Cheers Backward Point for the info as usual,
I do hope Button can manage to grab a point or 2 for the Mclaren boys
looks like he may need to sort out his braking points first though ,
looking forward to watching the race this weekend , as you say 'What could possibly go wrong?'...

[Backward point]

That went well. As long as you were driving a red car, that is. Mercedes have made a bit of a dog's dinner of their weekend, both cars struggling for traction and as a consequence overheating their rear tyres. In the circumstances Bottas did a stellar job to qualify third, while Hamilton has had "one of those weekends", and will start 13th, thanks to Button's grid penalties. Had VanDoorne not hit the barriers at the exit to the swimming pool he would have been much higher, but due to the afore-mentioned setup problems he only had time for one flying lap at the end of Q2, and had to abort it when the yellow flags started flying. When things aren't going his way, Hamilton's head seems to drop, and he loses interest in the weekend, as happened at Baku last year.

Red Bull are there or threabouts, but their long-run pace is still half a second or so away from the Ferraris, and Kimi's pole lap was a study in perfectly controlled aggression, especially through the second sector. It would be uncharitable to suggest that it might be time to start contract discussions for 2018. Raikkonen's pole gives Ferrari a problem for the race, though - I imagine that, with Hamilton so far back, they will want Vettel to maximise his point-scoring opportunity, along with their chances of retaining his services for next year and beyond. Vettel is the short-to-medium term future for Ferrari, whereas Raikkonen isn't.

It's shaping up to be a fascinating race.

[aldfort]

That went well. As long as you were driving a red car, that is. Mercedes have made a bit of a dog's dinner of their weekend, both cars struggling for traction and as a consequence overheating their rear tyres. In the circumstances Bottas did a stellar job to qualify third, while Hamilton has had "one of those weekends", and will start 13th, thanks to Button's grid penalties. Had VanDoorne not hit the barriers at the exit to the swimming pool he would have been much higher, but due to the afore-mentioned setup problems he only had time for one flying lap at the end of Q2, and had to abort it when the yellow flags started flying. When things aren't going his way, Hamilton's head seems to drop, and he loses interest in the weekend, as happened at Baku last year.

Red Bull are there or threabouts, but their long-run pace is still half a second or so away from the Ferraris, and Kimi's pole lap was a study in perfectly controlled aggression, especially through the second sector. It would be uncharitable to suggest that it might be time to start contract discussions for 2018. Raikkonen's pole gives Ferrari a problem for the race, though - I imagine that, with Hamilton so far back, they will want Vettel to maximise his point-scoring opportunity, along with their chances of retaining his services for next year and beyond. Vettel is the short-to-medium term future for Ferrari, whereas Raikkonen isn't.

It's shaping up to be a fascinating race.

While I agree with your analysis It's Monaco. Kimi will want to win, nobody showing his level of commitment in quali was doing that so he could be second.

[Huertecilla]

While I agree with your analysis It's Monaco. Kimi will want to win, nobody showing his level of commitment in quali was doing that so he could be second.

Kimi has already expressed that he is riding for the team, so unless Vettel is out, he will finish behind Vettel.
Cannot see Bottas staying ahead of Verstappen.
That is, if Mercedes have not found traction.
Hamilton at the back can go anywhichway.
Looks potentially more interesting than most years.

[blackal]

watched (unusually for me - must be the setting) the qualifying yesterday.

Sure - Hamilton is upset at missing qualifying....... but that interview was disgusting - he wouldn't answer even the simplest, non confrontational question.

It would have been nice if the interviewer had muttered "thanks for that" , turned on her heels and gone in search of someone else to interview.

[jaytip]

Cannot see Bottas staying ahead of Verstappen.

After his last two outings at Monaco, I think young Max may just rein in his usual attacking style this time around and just get some decent points.