Reply With QuoteMost of the younger people I speak to either don't own a watch or have aspirations no higher than an Apple watch.
http://www.fhs.ch/file/59/comm_16030...d887-140018377The deterioration in the trend of Swiss watch exports observed since July 2015 gathered pace in March.With a decline of 16.1% compared to last year their value totalled only 1.5 billion francs, making these thelowest March figures since 2011. The scale of the downturn is also unusual, since we must go back to thecrisis of 2009 to find rates of variation of this order.
Watches costing between 500 and 3,000 francs (export price) showed a more moderate decline, albeit verysignificant. Their value contracted by 7.1% compared to March 2015. At the extremities of the price scale,timepieces costing less than 200 francs and those above 3,000 francs lost ground to the tune of 20%. The200-500 francs category registered the least satisfactory result, falling sharply by 27.1% both in value andvolume terms.The main markets were particularly hard hit. Hong Kong recorded one of its steepest downturns, with-37.7%.
The United States followed a similar trajectory in March (-32.9%), throwing the country’s poorperformance into sharp relief. China was clearly negative (-13.7%), undermining the recovery which hadbegun to take hold at the end of last year. Germany was an exception and registered a level of growth(+2.2%) which confirms the steady improvement in its situation. Italy recorded a moderate decline (-3.2%),while Japan (-9.4%) failed to live up to the promise shown at the start of the year.
Most of the younger people I speak to either don't own a watch or have aspirations no higher than an Apple watch.
This was me up until I was over 30 though. I'm not sure that luxury mechanical watches has ever been a young man's game.Originally Posted by Vanguard
Would be interesting to see the changing demographic of say the last 20 years of luxury timepieces if such a thing exists.
Not entirely sure about that, years ago most would've loved a high end watch but simply couldn't afford / justify it. Now most kids wouldn't thank you for one.
I don't wish to be contentious but I think pushing some marketing towards women would be a bloody good idea at this point.
And not dainty lady size things covered in diamonds either. The standard models.
People talk about Smartwatches but I think something just as significant (if not more so) is the rise of companies like Daniel Wellington who are seeing rapid growth with their Chinese made fashion watches. DW didn't exist five years ago but now sells more than a million time-pieces and has revenue in excess of $200 million. So it's not simply that fewer people are buying watches, it's that when they are they have more options that previously with styles that are more appealing to them.
Sounds a bit 'anecdotal'.
When I was under 40, I was quite happy with a simple Seiko that did the job, without worry.
I never aspired to a 'high end' (or even mid range) watch and it was mere coincidence that I spotted and became a little obsessed with a Breitling Cosmonaute.
Likewise, I can't think of any of my peers (now in our mid 50s) who ever owned a particularly nice watch when we were younger (and it was never a matter we discussed), they were all just functional items, usually in the £100-200 range.
Of course, you could argue my circle are atypical, but some have done pretty well for themselves, but still wear fairly mundane timepieces.
M
Oh it's completely anecdotal.
Maybe it's because my peers came of age in the materialistic 80's, we all wanted to be yuppies with a BMW and a Rolex, sadly the student grant wouldn't stretch to it.
Indeed I'd be really interested to see if there were any good quality information out there regarding the market. I worked in the travel industry for 20 years and there was always good quality annual reports on the state of all the main markets and little niches. I would have thought there was something available for Swiss watches.
Ha ha, that's me too, but I was more of the "Fascist Groove Thang" tendency and never had any desire for that, although I'll admit I've hankered after a BMW M3 from time to time as the years have passed...
M
It's not anecdotal (sadly). Have a look at Deloittes 2015 report on the Swiss watch industry. Sobering stuff. In essence, global economic decline, especially in Asia, has hit hard.
Perhaps not so much a decline as things coming back to earth after several years of aggressive expansion, overproduction, and bandwagon jumping, all based on the theory that people will buy anything sufficiently overpriced?
Swiss watchmakers are their own worst enemies.
How so?
Because troll.
Overpriced.
Practices that are counterproductive to customer loyalty such as poor and expensive service, poor communication. Not making spare parts available. In short, making the ownership experience frustrating and unrewarding.
What should they be doing? They should be doing what Rolex used to do. Sell the watches for a rational price. Train watchmakers local to the buyer base. Make spare parts available to them.
Georges is a CEO of a Swiss watchmaker who dares to say what he really thinks of their customers. They are essentially milk cows with more money than sense and tactics like raising their prices to make their watches more desirable work well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOGlRNrdHQs
I think that could possibly work for a while, especially with the help of good marketing like having famous actors gallivant around wearing their watches but it is a house of cards that will fall over at the slightest gust of wind.
What Georges is essentially saying is that if you purchase the brand of Swiss watch he happens to be pushing, then you are a chump.
They are their own worst enemies.
Last edited by GrandS; 12th May 2016 at 20:50.
If you took a wider picture I suspect it not just the Swiss market but the whole luxury market world wide due to smart watches, fitbits, phones and cheap fashion watches, they all tell the time and do a hell of a lot more for a fraction of a good mechanical..
Its why the quartz fashion models do so well, people see it as jewelry and are not really concerned about the time it tells or the movement, more how it looks..
China fuelled huge sales increases which have already declined due to crack downs on corruption (many watches were bought as commercial inducements) and will only drop further as the Chinese economy weakens.
Andy
Wanted - Damasko DC57
It's notable though that the declines are in all price brackets, so it's not just about luxury goods. There may be several different things going on here. There's a particularly sharp decline in the price bracket that includes the Apple Watch, for instance. Declines in China may be related to the economy, or to anti-corruption measures preventing watches being used as bribes, or both. Presumably this may also affect HK. America is a different story. And there are no falls in Germany, in fact there are moderate rises. I'd like to see a serious analysis of the causes of all this, it has a boom and bust feel but there are so many factors at work in different territories and market segments.
Ha just saw this after I posted!
We were talking about people wanting or not wanting 'high end' watches when they were young in the past vs not now, global economic decline has no bearing on that.
M.
I wonder if they will do this. I get the impression the manufacturers couldn't get their heads round women wanting anything other than smaller/more glittery models.
[QUOTE=snowman;3963194]We were talking about people wanting or not wanting 'high end' watches when they were young in the past vs not now, global economic decline has no bearing on that.
M.[/QUOTE
Economic decline has lots to do with what people want. Or do you think peoples desires are independent of the economy they live in?
It's possible that more young people want high end watches, not less, But they have to be able to afford them.
As for the role of women, there was a time when most cars were bought by men...not now. Could end-up the same for watches , if they become desirable enough.
Last edited by paskinner; 12th May 2016 at 17:16.
Do you think people's desire are entirely dependent on their ability to afford something?Economic decline has lots to do with what people want. Or do you think peoples desires are independent of the economy they live in?
It's possible that more young people want high end watches, not less, But they have to be able to afford them. The impact of smart watches is extensively discussed by Deloittes; well worth a read.
Go back and read what was said, you seem to be barking up the wrong tree to me.
I'm not disputing some of what you're saying, but the 'anecdote' in question was that 'people used to want posh watches whether they could afford them or not, but don't now' (I paraphrase a little).
M.
Indeed.
Nothing to do with Swiss nor watches.
An increasing number of analysts is waving red flags about not a looming but an already arrived economic decline.
Nicely put. A market correction is due.
A couple of minutes on google suggests that rolex sell lady datejusts by the metric sh#tload...
"Pink it and shrink it" is still the order of the day. Like mobile phones about 15 years ago. But looking around, these days I see women wearing bigger watches than men!
...but what do I know; I don't even like watches!
+2 on this. Add in the global slowdown, particularly in the emerging luxury markets, far cheaper fashion brands and the entry of a style behemoth like Apple into the market have all had an impact on the Swiss industry and just like in the quartz crisis days, they don't seem to have handle on how to respond. QV the TAG smart watch. If anything they have less of an idea these days. It's easy to forget that it was the Swiss and the Americans who really drove the quartz stuff at first.
On the women's segment, that's an area to explore alright. Funny enough I've personally only seen the Apple watch a few times in the wild and in each case they were being worn by women. Minuscule anecdotal sample size of course, but it wouldn't surprise me to find them popular with the ladies, as Apple have been boxing clever with appealing to wider markets in IT since the days of the coloured iMacs and that includes the women's market. I'd bet that the mechanical watch would be down the list with that market mind you. Ladies it seems prefer quartz.
I have seen loads of men (and I use that term loosely) wearing the Apple Watch. Don't recall seeing any women though, I think it's a geek/nerd thing so can't imagine too many women wearing them. I agree that most women prefer quartz, can't be bothered with the time setting if left off the wrist. Men have always been the primary market for luxury watches for a few reasons - it's one of the few bits of jewelry men wear, and men like machines and complicated things.
I've really not seen that many (Groupon deals suggest both they and the iPad Pro aren't ideas that have really hit the spot, too), but I have seen both men and women wearing them.
I guess if you love Apple gadgets, they're great, but who wants to spend hundreds on a gimmick with limited functionality that will be horribly out of date in two years time?
It was interesting that the Deloitte's report indicated that the Apple Watch had raised awareness of smart watches considerably amongst watch company execs they interviewed. I think that says more about the froth around anything Apple do in the media and the lack of wider perspective of people in watch companies than much else.
I'm not surprised that China shows huge enthusiasm for smart watches, they're still in the 'space race' era, anything new and technical will be exciting. I think their market will mature over the next 2 decades (although that might be too late for some of the dinosaur companies).
M.
Last edited by snowman; 13th May 2016 at 10:17.
Tag Heuer customers, apparently.
+1. They are falling over each other in a desperate race to buy the stuff before it is completely obsolete...
Well, I'm sure TAG would like to think so
M.
That's your opinion.
Err, Rolex already do that, price is relative, they invest in horology schools teaching fine watch making and there are independant but accredited watchmakers who do have access to parts
What part of 'because troll' didn't you get..?
Just don't engage with it. This is a much nicer place when he's not visible to you.
Agreed; I think the industry will be healthier in the long run if they rid themselves of some of the BS that's proliferated with the influx of undiscerning new money.
Consolidation by luxury groups hasn't been good for either watchmakers or clients, either. Richemont's attempts to turn everything they touch into Panerai has also changed former greats such as Cartier into trend-followers that have less and less substance behind the name.
If things really get tough and companies start failing, I don't think the mostly-outsourced-production bubble brands such as Richard Mille will be missed by many. On the other hand, Rolex will continue to do just fine, and Nomos is showing that significant growth is still possible for real watchmakers.
Market correction. Overdue.
Elaborate please.
If you are a manufacturer of luxury goods that do not sell you have two choices.
1. Market correction. You lower the price until your goods sell.
This is not good because lowering the price erodes the perception of your goods as something that is expensive, high end and difficult to obtain.
2. You do not release the excess amount of goods to the market. You either stockpile or destroy the goods that you are unable to sell.
This way the image of a high end expensive manufacturer is kept intact.
I suspect most manufacturers of luxury goods will prefer option 2. Their image is the most valuable thing they have and they will not do anything to damage it.
The conclusion is that prices of luxury watches will not be coming down. The manufacturers will simply have to grin and bear the downturn.
Scintillating!
BTW,Eddie doesn't charge per word. As you can tell if you read from MarkfromLondon's posts;-)
You can't avoid the impact of the massive appreciation of the swiss franc in Jan last year. Same products cost significantly more.
Surely this has been going on since 2007, when CHF became a safe haven currency after the crash. The initial response seems to have been excitement that sales didn't decline when prices went up, followed by something of a gold rush. This included a lot of extremely overpriced ETA powered watches. Eventually supply overtakes demand, with results like this:
https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/pa...der-reductions
Indeed and going back in history the strength of the Swiss Franc in the 1970's was one of the biggest stressors that led to the "quartz crisis" that decimated the Swiss industry. It would be interesting to look at those German watch companies operating within the eurozone and see if they have had as much of a downturn as the Swiss.
I saw a lecture on Ted where the guy said that young people don't use a watch because the don't understand the need for a "one purpose device "
Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
Thanks for the pointer towards the worlds biggest search engine but I'm rather inclined to ask so what?
Lady datejusts will sell to women who want to buy them, particularly in the eastern markets.
Women who don't want to buy them because they're tiny are wearing oversized Michael Kors and Toy Watches that look like submariners.
There's a market there if the Swiss could diversify slightly from peddling their 40mm offerings solely to wannabe James bonds or fighter pilots.
Hey, a Rolex is not a one purpose device-
It tells time
Is a trinket
Is an announcement that you have arrived
And, most importantly it is a chick magnet😜😜😜
And if it is a DSSD, it is also a weapon.
I'm totally with you, it was just an explanation to the youngsters state of mind
Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
I think this highlights the functional versus emotional mindsets. Perhaps luxury watch sellers need to further emphasise the emotional aspect. Or perhaps they simply need to wait until young people are older and they will come to appreciate this aspect more on their own.
You might be surprised by how many women there are out there wearing submariners and daytonas.
My point, however, was that, as an example, rolex are currently selling womens watches in such volume that they needn't worry too much about attracting an audience they clearly already have in abundance.
Oh.
I would?
Please. Tell me how many women are wearing Rolex sports.
My point had nothing to do with Rolex as their advertising tends to focus on the watches and not which grizzly chap is wearing them. Panerai also tends to focus on the watch.
Popular with women and fairly neutral.
It was a far wider comment about the Swiss watch industry and their marketing.
I have very fond memories of the IWC campaign that went out of its way to exclude women in an attempt to prove their masculine timekeeping capabilities. Would I buy IWC again? No.
Have I had umpteen conversations with women wearing toy watch / mk / diesel et al that goes along the lines of "but isn't it a mans watch?' Yes.
Reducing that barrier with either some deliberately unisex ads or at least ones that aren't laced with testosterone may open up an even wider section of the market above and beyond women who already wear submariners/daytonas/luminors.
It's a simple premise that doesn't need any 2 minute googling of lady datejusts.
Last edited by verv; 14th May 2016 at 17:41.
Posting Permissions
