Reply With QuoteWhilst you can make money with watches, they don't make great investments.
Especially over a 4 year period.
I'd stick it in an ISA if I were you!
Hi guys I've just ordered a new car with a small deposit on a PCP and when it arrives I'll be selling my current car for more than the deposit.
I'll probably have about 5-6k equity back from my old car so I'm thinking is there a watch I could buy new or used to return a profit in 4 years, if I buy wisely it could cover the interest from the finance. Wouldn't look to wear it but could ;)
My current thinking is a sub no-date or sea dweller from iconic.
Any (productive) thoughts? Lol.
Whilst you can make money with watches, they don't make great investments.
Especially over a 4 year period.
I'd stick it in an ISA if I were you!
Generally, watches are very poor "investments", particularly if you are buying new and mid-range. That said, I've been through 30 or so watches thus far (all bought used) and am actually up in $$ terms due to some lucky buys and a lot of patience. Plus it's been a lot more fun than having all that cash sitting in the bank making 0.3% or so.Originally Posted by pete-r
If you genuinely are serious, research the market, figure out what prices are reasonable, and buy a very good example (preferably with box & papers) of a vintage 60s Speedmaster, a Rolex 1680 or a Tudor Snowflake (the list could go on but there's three good examples IMHO). In four years the prices are likely to be north of what you paid.
No-one here is going to tell you that buying a brand new Sub or SD is a sound investment decision (it's not), but if you want an excuse to buy one (which I think is what you're after) just go and do it - you won't lose that much. But don't pretend it's for "investment" purposes.
You have to be sure that there will be another prolonged period of low/no interest rates, money-printing and stellar growth from the developing economies; that's generally contributed to a double of luxury watch prices (and thus their used prices) in the last 10 years. Prices haven't moved much in the last couple of years and there aren't many economic gymnastics left to re-stimulate demand...
...but what do I know; I don't even like watches!
i buy watches to hide money from prying eyes so to speak, you can easily hide 10grand in a few watches, as long as i dont lose when i come to cash them in im happy,
but like the others have said over a 4year period it will be hard to make any real sort of profit worth talking about, i choose the watches i buy very carefully as i am tight.
i tend to try and beat the seller down to his bottom price because i want the watch to still hold the same value as when i bought it come the time im ready to cash it in for a new/better watch
" is there a watch I could buy new or used to return a profit in 4 years": Yes, as long as it is rare, desirable, original, in excellent condition, has bullet proof provenance and you MUST get it for a good price. Finding and purchasing such a piece will take time and effort and so will selling it.
If you want a sub, then just buy it and wear it. Don't try to justify it.
Yes, but probably selected Patek models. Rolex, only if there is a series of price rises, but curren inflation suggest that it wouldn't have the return you'd wish for.
It's just a matter of time...
double red sea dweller about 3 years ago were about 15k
now @ 20K upwards
for @ 5K buy the best 5513 you can find (fullest set) should not lose money on that - 3 years ago they were 3.5K for a decent one
Last edited by Xantiagib; 26th October 2015 at 11:29.
Why would you think they would rise in value? (and if they did surely the service after 5 years would negate any gains?) Every time I go to town most jeweler have nearly every sports model easily available and prices havent gone up in the past few years. Luxury good companies have been issuing profit warnings as the Far East economy slowing down. (so demand is falling)
If you want a watch buy a watch but dont buy a current commonly produce watch thats easily available on the high street and call it an investment expect a return!
One assumes it can be done - and that many will do it.
Why else would people be shelling out $3,500 to attend the Hodinkee Collectors Summit?
See also the BHI event over the summer that had three collector-related talks, and the upcoming SalonQP seminars on the same topic.
It's big business.
Indeed. But not with five grand!
You're probably right.
Look. Nina Rindts are through the roof. So are Autavias (even post-Haslinger). I've seen base metal Tavannes watches described as Calatravas on sale for $5k. It's all nuts.
The only way to make money with five grand is to get lucky. Find the next bubble. I dunno, the Zenith Cairelli. Or the Lemania SAAF. If you could pick up those two for five grand, I imagine that some thinly veiled dealer / watch 'blog, Twitter person with 100k followers, or Instagram account will *eventually* realise how cool they are and create a market for you.
Probably.
Only the real high end pieces.I have a feeling smartwatches in the medium term are going to reduce the desire for old school watches i am afraid to say....
a friend of mine deals with investments for high-end clients; as well as owning property portfolios etc... they have a watch portfolio
and some of these watches are stunning and have been very carefully purchased from auctions with the right provenance some years ago and now worth at least %5-10% more
problem is at that scale is the logistics of selling them all to recoup that -
Is 5-10% really worth the risk? I thought you were going to say 30-40%! I assume they are buying up classic / vintage Daytonas?
As mentioned before, the obvious stuff is done - I bought my 16600 for £2k from a London dealer, wore it everywhere, never serviced it and sold it to another London dealer for £4.2k about 10 years later. That isn't going to happen again!
If I absolutely, positively had to, then the best recently RSC serviced 5513 I could find. Tough to imagine that not working out.
5-10% on average across 700 pieces in literally a couple of years - after 5 -10 years who knows - 15%+ is achievable with daytonas and 5512s and 1675s and doublereds etc...
i am being very conservative
No. It can't.
I would agree that it is extremely difficult, if not almost impossible to intentionally invest in watches with a view to making a profit, but it has been done indirectly by people over time who were in the right place at the right time and bought the right watch at list price upon release. Think Paul Newman Daytona, big crown Sub early Sea-dwellers etc etc. Albeit that these were not actually investors and people who simply bought the right watch.
I wouldn't know if these watches are the type to attract modern day investors, paying a huge price to obtain said watches then lock them in a safe for 5 or 10 years. That is the gamble of investment, will these grail watches continue to rise in value as good examples become harder to get hold of and all the nice ones are already tucked away in collections or have they had their day and will cease to increase in value any more. Most people do seem to suggest that values will continue to rise.
Where is Mystic Meg when you need her ?
Last edited by Wallasey Runner; 26th October 2015 at 17:24.
I think it can, by buying the right vintage piece or pieces, I have managed it.
I think making money over 4 years is pushing however it but I doubt you'd lose anything.
I know very little about new watches however, I cannot comment on them.
As with anything knowledge (and contacts) is everything, it might take you 10 years to build them up well enough to be able to know what to buy and when.
C.
I`d put the money in either a high-income corporate bonds fund or an Equity income fund (both can be ISA'd). You should be able to make 4% return on these, albeit with some risk to capital. However, if you reinvest the income and leave the investment for a few years you should have a tidy sum....which you'll need for your next car if you're caught up in the PCP circle.
As for trying to invest in watches.....forget it. Previous posters are falling into the trap of assuming previous trends will continue. We've just see a period of crazy prize inflation in the watch market and that seems to have come to an end. As for the vintage Rolex thing, that ship has already sailed in my view.
Paul
Last edited by walkerwek1958; 26th October 2015 at 18:29.
Yes, of course. That's not in dispute. Anyone might, by chance, buy something which happened to go up in value. It would have been silly to ask that question, and sillier to answer it.
The trick is to know in advance which watches to buy. I would say, if you were extremely knowledgeable and judicious, and had plenty of money to invest, you could make some good bets which might return you a few hundred quid over many years, but the gains would be greatly outweighed by the losses on the pieces that didn't appreciate.
If you want an investment, buy shares.
But if you were an investor today with a sizable amount of cash to invest, would buying the best examples of milsubs, Comex, PN Daytonas and rare Subs and SDs etc be the way to go (and that's just using Rolex as an example) and lock them in a safe. Will these watches continue to gain in value.
The other week HQ Milton in SF listed a Paul Newman Daytona for just under $120,000 and it sold in days. Watchclub listed a DRSD the other week and that went in a few days - so there must still be buyers out there and if demand outstrips supply the prices logically go up.
I don't think a serious investor would even consider buying a suitcase full of todays new watches and sitting on them - they will eventually become NOS, but will the value increase - probably not enough to satisfy a dragon.
5 to 10% hardly even pays for an auction house commission. A very bad investment if you ask me.
Last edited by GrandS; 26th October 2015 at 19:14.
That's the gamble, I think they will but who really knows....
I thought about selling up and buying shares or BTL property but really, where's the fun in that.
Like everything else, the "secret" is to buy at the right price.
At least you would have some really cool watches to wear!
It's a gamble for what watch will go up in value. I buy vintage and issued watches I like and can afford at the time. I bought a vintage Tudor snowflake about 4-5 years ago for 2000 US who would think they would double there value to 3500--4000 US today. Then some vintage watches just hold there own. Seems like vintage Heuer's chronographs are going up in value big time lately one of those mite be a good investment.
agreed
Yeah i often think about this and people are right. Watches don't make great "investments" but, i still think that it can count as one. It will give you poor returns even compared to a very modest ISA but it can definately be part of a portfolio of other investments. Also how you buy is key. If you go grey or 2nd hand, you are already 30-50% below market price so your depreciation will be close to 0. In many cases you can get all your money back or sell for abit more.
You have to understand that many of the big-money collectible watches are watches which weren't popular at the time and therefore produced in small numbers. The most obvious of these is the Cosmograph, which didn't sell and was heavily discounted at the time.
You either had to be a brave man to buy an unpopular watch or like it very much. Investing in watches is as risky as investing in anything.
Eddie
Whole chunks of my life come under the heading "it seemed like a good idea at the time".
Yup, at one time all the Rolex "big money" was in bubble backs, they were the MilSubs of their day and it all came crashing down very quickly, people lost a lot of money.
Better to purchase airport parking spaces currently on offer 8% return !! ...
who says you have to always deal through an auction house?
parking spaces indeed! i've missed the boat on a few and currently rent a space for one of my cars and pay now 100% more than I did 13 years ago...
and property in the right place still the best return IMHO
Suspect the answer is that they CAN be good investments, but it's not easy. As for those suggesting ISA's etc, my experience over far too many years is that the only people getting rich off financial products are the shysters selling them.
That's spot on as far as I'm concerned. Enicar has been quite popular lately, and there will be more to follow. Certain mil-chrono's make for a good candidate indeed, or maybe a brand like Eterna or Glycine, or................?
Both comment apply equally to watches and ISAs. Although the number of people getting a steady (if not stellar) return on a revolving watch portfolio is negligible compared to those with stocks and shares ISA. And I've yet to come across a watch that pays you a cheque every quarter!
...but what do I know; I don't even like watches!
That's very true. However, if you give me £100k to invest and I send you a cheque for £1,200 every quarter, it might take you quite a while before you realise that there's a fair bit of smoke and mirrors going off.
Basically It is impossible to predict what will happen in the watch market, as in most other markets.
Fact is that many watches can be considered Veblen goods, where demand actually increases when prices rise. Something Omega is strongly betting on at the moment, releasing their new watches 25-50% higher priced than before. Whether this will work out or not is to be seen. If it works out, the whole luxury watch market will take advantage.
Fact is that Rolex (amongst others) prices have been rising for a long time. Whether this will continue or not, is to be seen. People have been shouting for decades that housing prices would stop rising. They never did.
I myself also buy some watches for investment purposes, don't even wear them. I would stick to Rolexes with box and papers (as already suggested) or classics on the rise who haven't reached top value yet. But it remains a gamble, as with most risky investments.
Also, I think your 4 year timeframe is very short.
I've got a watch that i bought for £2500 and is now worth about £25000.
I had no idea this was going to happen.
I have no idea if it'll go up any further. Or whether it'll come down.
These days it seems a bit ridiculous to wear something so valuable. (So ironically its value has actually made it less useful.)
I bought it 15 years ago and I haven't bothered to check what an ISA might have done over the same time period.
Possibly it would have done better. Possibly not.
But the thing is: I bought 3 watches at the same time and the others haven't moved.
I'd be wary of people telling you how it is because, like most investors, they very rarely tell you about their failures and it's easy to form a misleading picture.
welldone that man.... i bet that does not happen very often if ever you got lucky there
Would you care to elaborate a little?
I'd be very interested to know which watch it is.
Congratulations not in order. It took no skill, and I would openly admit there was no foresight. Just luck. (And being a collector before prices rocketed.)
Corporal sparrow have you any tips on what to buy now?
Yes, we all want to know what it was.
a sure fire investment would be something like the panerai 3646
there is one coming up for sale and a friend of mine is selling another
the problem is the odd one that does come up is unique to the next with unique history - the issued ones go for more money but even the 'normal' ones used to go for about $60,000 in 2013
now estimated $80 - $120,000 and at auction it may go for more
hold on to it for 5 years and yes it could be worth the same or maybe pushing 300,000 - just look at the prices of some of the 1990s Panerais in the upcoming christies auction
research research luck and hindsight are your friends here...
Last edited by Xantiagib; 28th October 2015 at 14:07.
Christie's Catalogue link, for anyone interested:
http://www.christies.com/PDF/catalog...10_SaleCat.pdf
Some absolutely stunning watches for sale and some stunning estimates.
Wow! If only I had the money. What an amazing assortment of watches. This is when you do get into investment territory I think.
bugger watches i'm going to buy some Lego:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...risen-9-6.html
You could make your own G-Shock out of Lego and no one would notice the difference, you would also have all the right coloured bricks.
I think you'd have to be both extremely lucky and also hang on to them for awhile. The only watch I ever owned that went up massively was an original gilt-dialed Explorer with guarantee and Marche de Temps, which I sold just before the prices sky-rocketed. Sob.
Check out the thread on the Bond 5513 from Live and Let Die - watch bought for £26k - now up for auction with an estimate of £100k to £160k.
But ask yourself - if someone had offered you a 5513 years ago with no movement and told you that it was a film prop and that they wanted £26k would you have thought that it was an investment opportunity or complete madness ?
He who dares - wins !!
Plenty experts here who can guide you in this matter....having six of the same Seadweller & a dozen same Subs...
Those who bought these metal bezel insert Rolex a few years back stand to make a good profit selling now & even more so in the future.
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