Reply With QuoteIn a word, No.
Some make safer places to park a few quid than others but nothings sure fire.
Is there such a thing? I appreciate that some brands offer a higher likelihood of retaining, or even appreciating in value (Rolex, AP, PP etc). It seems that there can be significant variance within brands dependent on the model and specification.
I'm going to qualify my question by saying that I understand that watches are probably best not viewed as a vehicle solely for investment. That's a whole other debate and not really the thrust of my question. I'm interested in fellow enthusiasts' experience and perspective.
In a word, No.
Some make safer places to park a few quid than others but nothings sure fire.
The best possible retention / increase will be from Rolex Steel Sports, and whilst some will say theres better ways to make money theres not many as enjoyable that see you with a product that performs a function.
RIAC
Originally Posted by 100thmonkey
That's certainly been my experience. I've enjoyed and just about broken even on a Rolex sub 16610 which I had for about 5 years and sold it upgrade to the ceramic model. I wish I'd kept hold of it. Not for its value as an investment - I just really bloody liked it. At the time I just never saw myself switching frequently between the new and older variant. Ah the benefit of hindsight.....
- - - Updated - - -
A handsome return!Buy low sell high - its a good plan
This cost me £10, if I hang on to it then I reckon I could get £20-£30 in 20 years time
Makes you think
This has been true in the past, but I don't know if it will continue to be true - Rolex churn out hundreds of thousands a year and safes all over the world must be full of them by this stage.
Old Lego sets started increasing dramatically in value a few years ago, particularly some low-volume, high-cost sets. What happened? People noticed, and as the next generations of high-cost sets were produced, people bought a dozen examples of each as an 'investment'. These people will not see the same returns that accrued to those who hold the old, rare sets. They will most likely actually lose money, particularly if you consider the opportunity cost.
Not really , it depends on the amount paid and the length of time the watch is held before it's value is realised .
In the last few years 18k Day Dates have increased significantly in value mostly fuelled by the rise in the gold prices but as gold has fallen their prices have remained .
Rolex GMT models seem to be very static in price and you can purchase the Ceramic model at considerably less than the rrp .
It is more realistic to assume there will always be a decent residual value in a Rolex watch that is well cared for compared to other brands .
Many dealers will tell you what you are about to buy is a great investment. However that magic seems to disappear as soon as you leave the shop.
Buy what you like the look of. Certain watches will retain more of their value than others.
The depreciation of a watch is inversely proportional to the intelligence applied when buying it.
Don't follow leaders watch the parking meters
and there is no such thing as a free lunch.
I think sometimes people ignore occupancy cost (servicing!) when talking about returns on watches.
The safest bet is vintage quartz engined 18k gold watches and even that is only as safe a the gold.
I was thinking this, also unexpected repairs, damage, loss etc
Indeed. Rolex servicing costs alone would surely negate any loss in value/appreciation enjoyed.
Why do you think I mention quartz?!
Invitation only Patek models.
It's just a matter of time...
I was going to add, let's not forget the very top end of the market here. We all saw the Graves sell last week.
I would say that you don't actually lose that much money at my end of the market, but in the same way Roman Abramovich might buy half a dozen Picasso paintings and stick them in a vault, there are certainly people (watch lovers or otherwise) that would buy a very rare Patek as a safe haven for cash and over the course of a few years it should appreciate.
Agreed, absolute top end of the market is the place to be. Super complications, tiny production runs, interesting provenance. But you'd need to be very rich, because the entry cost is huge and the ride might be bumpy...
I'm not sure I agree about modern mainstream watches being a sure fire winner. Demographic changes may really reduce the market size over the next twenty to thirty years, and there are a heck of a lot of sports Rolex made in the last twenty years out there. Past performance is no guide to the future, as they say.....
But I would say that watches known to be owned by interesting (and ideally admirable) folks will do well i think, because watches are such personal things.
Really? £430 every 7 years plus?
My experience:
Daytona, bought 4800, sold 6700, no service
Exp II, bought 1500, sold 2200, no service and I lost the paperwork
Sea-Dweller, bought 2000, sold 4100, no service.
I'm no mathematician but I appear to have done OK and would still have if they'd all been serviced as well.
- - - Updated - - -
Because you're obsessed with it? :)
rare but they do exist
Problem is that those are very hard or impossible to get.
Think about a Patek 5131 … a sure bet but good luck finding one at list.
I know there are dealer who flip these watches to the grey market because doing so the can get MUCH more then listprice if they sell it to a client.
Patek 5070P was another great example back in 2009. Everybody knew this would be very sought after and worth much more than listprice.
But also back then …. impossible to get.
Panerai used to be good with some of their limited editions but I think this is something from the past.
Others, but you have to look vintage.
The El Primero from Zenith is a legendary piece. You can find some very nice vintage El Primero's (1969 series) or first series De Luca for very cheap prices.
A De Luca from 1987 ( first series) is sometimes available between 2000 and 2500 GBP
I really can't imagine this watch will become less expensive in the future
Well done you but I was more thinking about people buying a Rolex now. Those big jumps in value have already happened so one would be buying in at a higher price point so to speak. Als, my AD told me servicing intervals are generally every 5 years.
Interesting that.
According to you and companions I must be obsessed with about a dozen of wildly different watch themes ranging from soviet crap to tc quartz in gold.
Quite a compliment actually.
As to the Patek invitation only and Velorum's example I would like to point out that actually wearing one, adding proof of usefull life on it, would not harm the latter result much but would seriously affect the former, as does the maintenance cost.
All in all a watch investment thread is as mwah as luxury watch gas passing valves thread.
Now the West is in obvious and permanent decline, you need to think about whether the newly wealthy in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam etc will be so bothered about watches in general and the likes of AP, Patek, Rolex in particular.
Last edited by J J Carter; 16th November 2014 at 12:45.
Anything with a small production run that's popular would be a good bet. I reckon the JLC Geophysic will be a good medium term bet.
Also all calculation examples are based on bought in sharply, kept pristine without traces of useful life, complete with B&P / goodies and sold at the right moment without need to.
It is just all bs imo.
Don't buy a watch if you can't afford just having fun wearing the crap out of it.
That :)
Seiko 5. Buy for 45 quid, wear it for a month and sell for 60. EBay is a funny old place.
It tickles me that the strap cost you 120% of the purchase price of the watch!Buy low sell high - its a good plan
This cost me £10, if I hang on to it then I reckon I could get £20-£30 in 20 years time
Makes you think
This is an irrelevance. The point is that you can't buy a ceramic GMT today for considerably less than the rrp five years ago, when I bought mine. I would at least get my money back, or even make a small profit.
Those figures don't add up to a stonking investment but they certainly point to a low (even free) cost of ownership.
Last edited by Tony; 16th November 2014 at 13:54.
Is there such a thing as a surefire investment watch?
Of Course there is Matt1974....send me £500 and I'll be happy to tell you what it is.
But you can do that with many watches (a alpinist just sold on SC for pretty much RRP) but if it was dropped and smashed max loss £300 or there abouts
If it develops a fault out of warranty max loss £300 or there abouts
Not saying a Rolex is not a good value buy but the risk is there, and i know what id rather own
They are a luxury item and not an investment
Are you there Matt?
.....OK, How About £100 ?
And/or insurance...
I think my 1969 speedmaster will give a good return for one of my sons in 2069.
Tataaaaaaaaaa!
But then I never got the selling argument of good resale value for a status/success symbol either: The whole point of ostentatious spending is at odds with a miserly or investment argument.
You might be right about that!
Surely vintage Speedmasters are always going to appreciate, albeit slowly? Maybe that's the answer to the OP's question?
Tataaaaaaaaaa!
But then I never got the selling argument of good resale value for a status/success symbol either: The whole point of ostentatious spending is at odds with a miserly or investment argument.
If there was, you'd have a money machine. Also, watches do not pay coupons annually or semi-annually, at least not to my knowledge, and although it's tempting to put it in the cupboard and not insure it or service it, in reality you do have these carry costs. The only way to make money is to identify the Next Big Thing, buy low and sell high, but unfortunately there's nothing sure-fire about that!
...but what do I know; I don't even like watches!
Everyone in this thread is also assuming mechanical watches will still be favored in 20-30 years. Everything you have now could be worth pennies just like after the quartz revolution. I would never buy a watch based on increase of value unless I was going to move it quickly.
Not so. I even got accused of being obsessed about quartz.
The mechanical fashion was created in 1983 to save the Swiss watch industry by inventing a market with a higher margin.
This resulted in a real fashion in half a century old automated mass produced mechanical calibers fetching multi K prices with ludicrous margins.
Meanwhile 95% of watches are powered with quartz and boutique watches with ditto are moving upmarket strongly, meaning great margins too.
As with every fashion the mechanical fashion will have a top and then go down.
This will not affect the invitation only specials, nor the top brands new, but it will seriously affect the resale prices of all else.
From the point of view of insurance, I suspect a hell of a lot of people's "investments" are not adequately insured, because people don't actually understand what they're buying.
If you're relying on your home and contents insurance, and you haven't paid extra for cover for personal possessions, they won't pay out if anything happens to your watch outside the home. Even if you have paid extra for personal possessions, they'll probably only cover it up to a couple of grand, and probably not abroad, unless you've paid even more extra for specified personal possessions cover for items over this value, but then most home insurers will only go up to ten grand or so. Here there will be time limits on how long they'll cover it abroad for. Anything other than that and you need to be looking at specialist insurance specifically for that watch. In all these cases, there will be any number of exclusions, which you should be aware of. For instance, will it be covered if your watch gets stolen out of your car? Probably not. Out of the locker at the gym? Maybe not.
If you're actually buying watches as an investment, you'll probably find insuring them adequately is a significant cost.
Btw, on a side not; there is a small group of members 'playing' an interesting 'game' here on tz-uk:
1. Whenever a member offers something on SC with a threat of making a positive return on investment, however minute, the guy is a villain unless the watch is a sports Rolex: It cannot be.
2. Whenever a Rolex sells not so well, it is not part of the statistics: It cannot be.
the one you dont buy..
on a more serious note, all Mkii Corporation http://boutique.mkiiwatches.com/ limited edition watches and some standard edition watches are sold at a higher price than at which they were bought.
I´ve noticed that phenomenon too.
Also do you own the watch or does the watch own you? If it spends most of its´time locked away not being enjoyed by you, what´s the point?
Last edited by Passenger; 16th November 2014 at 20:29.
First, a community of WIS is probably not the place to ask for advice in term of investment.
2 those who might know are unlikely to let you in on what can literally be considered 'free money'
3 those who answer will either speak out their fundament, will tell you what they've done recently but with no hindsight as to how it will pan out or at best based on their previous experience. Please note that the latter, whilst anchored in reality, puts the whole operation in the past which is not exactly useful if you're going to invest for the future.
So if you like your watches, set a budget for those that take your fancy, enjoy them and sell them when another one comes along. Short term immobilisation, you may win a bit, lose a bit, it doesn't matter as you'll have enjoyed your watch.
If on the other side you are truly looking for an investment, speak to a financial advisor/broker. Please note that their real expertise will also include some guess work, albeit more or less educated guesswork. Please also note that you'll pay them for their on going advice.
It's all pot luck really......though some have better foresight than others........milsubs being just one of the models that springs to mind
No.
It's a market, and like the art, property and car markets, it's based on faith and belief (ie. the component value is insignificant compared to its actual value).
Each of those markets has collapsed in value at some point over the last 25 years.
Only a fool thinks anything is a "surefire investment".
Alright Matt...How about a Tenner?
Past performance isn`t a reliable indicator. Between 2006 and 2012 most premium watch prices rose very steeply for several reasons. However, it's almost certain that this pattern won't continue. Everyone who bought a Rolex for a keen price prior to 2006 will have made money by selling it recently, but I wouldn`t bet on that trend being repeated.
Is the prestige watch market sustainable? It's easy to assume the answer's 'yes' when you're an enthusiast, but the real world could take a different view. There are signs that the market's a bubble.....and bubbles always end the same way.
Try this test: walk up to your nearest Rolex or Omega shop at midday, and have a look at the people around the area. How many of these good folks are likely to buy the watches in the window? Many people can't afford the prices, and even more wouldn`t see the point in spending so much on a watch. That leaves a small minority of potential buyers. For those of you who live/spend time in the expensive areas of London, don`t be fooled by London-ism.......the real world's slightly different.
I believe second-hand prices could start falling; this is almost certain if the new prices don`t continue to increase, and I think there are plenty of signs to show this is the case (at the moment).
I can`t see any 'sure-fire' investments out there in watchland; the vintage sports Rolex thing has already happened and I can`t see prices going up. Likewise with the lesser vintage watches, although the gap between fully restored/top level examples and the rest will increase as the costs of service and restoration continue to climb.
I`m happy to own watches in the sub-£1K category but I`m less convinced about keeping a collection of more expensive stuff thesedays. I certainly wouldn`t be out there buying watches as an investment.
Paul
Last edited by walkerwek1958; 17th November 2014 at 14:04.
Dont forget about inflation ...a £1000 Submariner in 1980 would be £4500 now adjusted for inflation ...has it really gone up in value or just maintained value ?
As with classic cars and such like, they come and go in fashion, occasionally some particular models come into fashion and command a premium
the best you can do is buy what you like, and maybe buy used to minimise depreciation ...
I've bought several classic (American) cars over the years, and the return has been excellent. I bought them to enjoy as a hobby. I didn't know they were sound investments, but they turned out to be.
I have been buying a lot of vintage Seiko divers lately. I've no idea if they will prove to be a good investment, but it doesn't matter, I am enjoying buying, collecting, learning about them and wearing them.
Deal ;)
Posting Permissions
