Reply With QuoteWe're not allowed to talk about it, fanboy!
There's been lots of talk on various threads about how the introduction of the SD4000 will affect the values of the old seadweller so I figured it might be a good idea for anyone interested to give their opinion on whether the values will rise or fall along with their reasons why.
I'll start off by saying that I think they'll rise.
My reasons being that looking at the various other ss models the older versions of the submariner, non date and GMT (5-15 years old) seem to sell at around £2k less than the new ceramics list price eg. a decent 14060 of that era is going to be around £3k. Similarly the sub and GMT will be around £3.5-£4k.
By the same reckoning the seadwellers will edge towards the £5k mark settling around £2k lower than a new model.
What does everyone else think?
We're not allowed to talk about it, fanboy!
I won't be dropping seven grand on one!
Or more interestingly the 116660?
I've grown bored of the SD hype....seeing one on here for £5995 sealed it for me. It's a nice watch but not £6ks worth.
If the 16600's replacement, the DSSD, caused such a demand for the old SD, surely Rolex's response with the new 40mm SD should reverse that???
Last edited by watchmad; 29th March 2014 at 23:19.
Agree with the OP. I think they'll settle at the 4.5k mark for a few years (5k tops for a brand new/unworn full set - the one up at 6k recently was optimistic to say the least). For the time being, until the new SDc filters through the market, 4k still looks like ballpark price for one.
They sell for £4k, they get worn they live and are loved, at £5k they get worn once or twice and then stored and stashed in a bid to make a profit, at £6k.....well look what you could have for that and compare then decide but its your money after all!
RIAC
I really don't see why they would rise as a result of the new sdC.
If anything anyone who was looking at a 16600 might wait to try on the new ceramic.
I own a 16600 and would like it to rise in value but don't see demand for it rising.
Sadly I think the Ceramics have now come of age and been widely accepted to the point where the quality and engineering of the older stuff, whilst still exceptionally good, is lacking compared to the newer offerings. The price reflects it well as a for example a standard no date sub (14060) is around £3k and a Ceramic (114060) around £4k so 25% more for the improvement is fair in that if you like the older versions then for the money they are spot on yet for a few dollars more you can get modern if thats your bag
RIAC
Yes, although there'll always be the traditionists that prefer the pre-c's, I think even the WIS community has become pretty accepting of the new models. I sold my 16610 as I just wasn't wearing it anymore - I much prefer the feel of my Hulk.Originally Posted by 100thmonkey
I've been tempted by a 16600 in the past, but TBH if the SDc wears ok on the wrist, I'll be sorely tempted by that. (I've always admired the DSSD, but its' just too big on my wrists). I can't help thinking a LVc/SDc combo is pretty desirable.
I would have thought the old SD will always command a small premium over the old Sub Date, as it did when it was sold, but I can't help thinking fewer people will pay over the odds now when there's a modern alternative.
That sums it up for me too, Rob - I've owned plenty of "old" Subs and SD's and there's no question that the new models are more substantial and better-engineered (I also like the idea of a SDc to go with my LVc, if I'm honest).
As for values of the classic model, present owners can talk the market up as much as they want but the 16600 bubble burst about 18 months ago. With a large proportion of the market moving to the newer model there's no economic and logical reason to assume anything but a downwards shift in value. Sorry.
Who cares. You buy the watch and wear it. Mines a 1997 watch, been on my wrist permanently for the last three years.
It's the watch i always wanted and future value had nothing to do with buying it.
Last edited by steptoe; 30th March 2014 at 10:45.
Fair enough.
I'm the same. Never going to sell my one and only SD...had it since new, long before the fuss and clamour got stoked up to get hands on them. Bought from an AD at full price (£2870 I think) so I don't really care about the market. However, always quite interesting to hear what 'unrealised' value there is in these pieces :-)
I agree to an extent, to me it will come down to the exact 16600 model in question - an earlier drilled lug trit will fair a lot better than a SL non-drilled in much the same way as a matte dial 16800 or a non-WG surround 5513 have done.
In terms of the bubble bursting then maybe on TZ when you listed on SC on they sold in hours ... but whilst SDs have slowed down in the last 18 months so has just about anything that costs more than a grand unless its priced very very keenly. The TZ market is very small so I cant help but think anyone on here that wants an SD has already got one and the number of folk dropping £4k+ on any watch is small anyway.
A lot will be driven by the resale value of the SDc, and that will be anyones guess as it might be like the DSSD and drop a fair bit due to the lack of appreciation by non-WIS (no cyclops on a Rolex!!) or could be driven up if Rolex limit supply like the Daytona.
Id briefly owned a sub some years ago. Bought, again if Im honest for mainly the sake of being able to afford a rollie, and it proved to be a huge disappointment - good looking watch, except the cyclops irritated me and it had a p*ss poor bracelet and clasp for the money.
So, I sold it on to a mate who knows nothing about watches and cares even less, simply on the back of the brand name. Bought a PO a bit later on and it just felt the better watch.
I still hankered after a SD though, and I think that the fact that it had been discontinued was a factor in this, plus the conversational value of its WR, the history behind it and, crucially, the date not ruined by a cyclops.
I then - thanks to this forum - began to see pics of the Sub-C without date that made me re-think a little.
All the looks of a sub, minus cyclops, with even more dial symmetry - albeit at the expense of a date, but that's no big deal.
So I bought one - or rather my wife got me one when I got out of hospital following a shoulder op.
Have to say I was happy with the decision. I think its the better-made watch - if Id've chased the SD Id have ended up with a watch that, despite fulfilling my wish for no date bubble and WR-based pub bragging rights , would still have had the bracelet and clasp deficiencies (at the price) but it would have cost me even more than the sub date did!
Then I saw the Basel threads on here and the other forums I visit. Rolex are finally making the SD the way they always should have.
The way I see it, value-wise, is that theres no longer the oddity factor that surrounded the old sd - you can get a rolex with all the plusses and none of the minuses now - albeit at a pretty daft price - but this is no place for that debate, because someone will always be daft enough to pay it (probably me!).
I don't think anyone who bought a SD before the period they were sought-after will ever lose on the deal, but I don't think they stand to gain as much as perhaps we all thought a couple of years ago.
The old SD was a fantastic watch. But, as long as the SD4000 wears ok, it has been surpassed.
Can you give any example of a discontinued model dropping in value? The value of SDs has not increased significantly in the last couple of years (about the time I purchased mine), do I care? Not one bit. I wanted to try one to see what the fuss was about. I liked it so it has stayed. Value will probably go up over time, but if anyone is keeping hold of one just to profit it will be a long wait without huge reward IMVHO, of course.
Sorry Phil - I was probably being unclear. I imagine there'll be a slight downward shift to reflect the new model being due/available, and then price stabilisation. Over time I'm sure they'll still be a good investment as almost all Rolex sports watches ultimately follow the upward price curve of new models.
Prices of 14060 and 16610 subs have risen following the introduction of the new versions, to a point where (IMO) they're overpriced. On this basis, SD prices should also rise a bit.
Trying to predict price trends on a rational basis is usually doomed to failure.......but I think they'll stay as they are or rise a bit.
Paul
I can't see there will be much change until the new model gets filtered into the second hand market. Many will defer a decision to buy a 16600, waiting for the new model (Or at least I am in that camp).
Give me a 16660 any day over the new Ceramic
Compared to the 1665 and 16660 (earlier models) how many SDs must there be. Also how many people bought full sets as investments and just put them in a safe.
Surely there's no way the 16600 will never command prices like the previous two. There's just too many of them out there.
I don't really care which way they go.. I don't think they will go down, but probably not up either, at least not for another few years.
This is true. Modern Rolex are pampered princesses - far too many NOS sets floating around for them to ever reach parity with the actual tool watch generations.
I think they will stay firm,if you can find a nice 16600 for £4kish.Otherwise its a big jump in my book ( another £3k) for all the new ones improvements(and the shoulders still look wide to me.)
Pretty much what I was thinking. If you can find the best example at the best price you won't go far wrong in my book.
Yeah, the prices will drop, just like they did for the planet oceans when the newer ceramic 8500 movement versions came out. Oh yes that's right they didn't. Oh and how the arse fell out of the market for the GMT'S when the ceramic came out, or the subs even, hmmm there is a pattern here. Wishful thinking, or just some people talking a lot of BS (well hot air really - who knows what will happen - but 1665's will cost more than triple 6's, and triple 6's will cost more than 16600's - but people will buy what they like and they will be paying Rolex money for them),imho.
Last edited by Omegamanic; 30th March 2014 at 20:41.
It's just a matter of time...
The prices of all of these are only going one way — the same way they've always gone. The rate of change may vary but, in the medium to long term, not the direction.
They had their big jump (from approx £3k to £4k) over a year or so around and after discontinuation and this was driven largely by hype and no small measure of speculative buying. In truth they've only really started to consolidate fully above the £4k mark in the last year or so and now this psychological level is finally properly breached and their "hype and mystique" are more realistically proportioned in people's minds, they'll rise gently from here in the same way all SS Rolex have ever done.
As for the new model... I can't see that each will have any significant bearing on the residuals of the other and they'll "peg" quite naturally to one another once a second-hand market value for the new ones becomes established in the next 12-24 months.
Amid all this one sold on turf this week for £5k
+1, exactly.
hmmm - maybe they are pricier in the EU - I have seen various 2nd hand 16600s here in SG for around £3.3k or less.
Again we are basing it on 2-3 watch forums not the real world, I think its safe to say they will just be worth what they are worth now which is what someone will pay (Circa £4k to sell) and maybe a little more each year from here on in but if you think that the PO 2500 was selling for £1300-£1700 when the new 8500 was released and here we are a few years later and they are selling for £1500 they have not gone down but nor have they changed much. Sadly theres a lot of people (mostly forum based) that only really buy watches because they think they will be safe or make a few quid rather than the masses who buy them to wear and genuinely do not care or know what they are worth.
If you currently have a few grands worth of watches and think they are going to make you rich or want to make a few quid then do yourself a favour and sell them all keeping just one you wear and want then invest the money into £1000 of 2p Sweets, set up at a car boot and you will double your money in a day and meet some real people in the process. Plus you wont be panicking about them stopping ticking while they sit in your safe or equally worrying about scratching them when you occasionally wear them to try and impress your mates.
RIAC
You're not going to lose money on a secondhand Rolex if that is your main concern. You're not going to make a fortune either.
“Don’t look back, you’re not heading that way.”
Laings in Edinburgh (Rolex AD) put a NOS fully stickered 16600 out the door of a shade over £5k the other week, so I reckon that's the current absolute ceiling price for split-new 16600's. They'd taken that one in as a trade-in.
Grey dealers in and around London have been selling NOS examples for £7K comfortably for the last year or so and will continue to do so from here on in.
I think that simply shows London as the bubble it's reputed to be. £7k is just silly.
I know in the 'real world' dealers will have them up at significantly more than SC (where the average price over the last couple of years has been around 4k) but 7k is insane. You'd have to be a bit dim or weird to buy at that level.
Perhaps but i'd buy as many as i could get my hands on at £5K. They may not be to everyones tastes but they are most coveted reference of the old style cases due to size and limited production numbers and residuals will remain buoyant for years to come.
I certainly wouldn't buy at £7K but i've not seen them NOS on SC for £4K over the last couple of years,only used ones selling for as much as £4800.
I see the passionate SD owners aren't too happy about the talk of price drop, even if they aren't going to sell them anytime soon :) A 3-4 years old 16600/16610 will hold it's value for sure but the £5-6-7k prices will be an exception rather than the rule. As soon as the SDc eventually/inevitably goes up in price, so will the 16600.
Rolex are watching us right now rubbing their hands together.......
You'd have to be completely mental to buy at that level!
There's at least one on Chrono24 right now for £5.1k in Italy. Cheap flight, lunch with wine, new 16600 - you're all set!
I disagree. If it's forever and going to be worn a lot. Why not?
If you are a customer of one of these dealers I doubt it's enough to worry your wallet.
I don't think anyone is arguing that prices of the old SD are going to go down. As always, used values depend on Rolex getting away with above inflation price rises on a regular basis. This is of course the reason for the whole "watches as an investment" myth - there was a period of 5-10 years where prices shot up dramatically, but conspicuously here have only been very minor price rises over the last couple of years, indicating that those days are almost certainly over. (Those with longer memories remember that in the late 90's/early 00's prices barely moved).
We don't know if there are going to be any adjusments to the Subc, Subc LN and LV prices, but if the SDc is going in at £6900, then there's not going to be room for more than a couple of hundred quid uplift on the other models. Presumably the DSSD is going to stay at about £8k, leaving Rolex a nice spread between about £5k and £8k. As ever, clever Rolex!
You do have to now question the logic of paying £5k+ for an old SD, however minty. Obviously some may want to have a safe-queen of the old model, but I think for many, it's nice to have as new as watch as possible for reasons of cosmetic appearance, reliability and authenticity. Now there is a modern, new, AD-warranteed alternative, it's only the serious SD afficionado who will want that is place of a brand new SDc. This is bound to have an effect of demand for the SD.
Obviously some won't like the new SDc and will prefer the old SD, but if we imagine used values for the SDc settling at around the £5.5-6k point (once supply has eased), and the Subc around the £4.5-5k it's very hard to imagine the regular production SD (which we all know is not that rare) really selling for much over £4k.
Any price RRP increases will have an upward effect on these values, but I think the crux of the argument is that the "premium" for the SD over the 16610 Sub will probably reduce, and the bubble for inflated prices has probably burst.
Why not? The principle of not overpaying 'just because'.
The fundamental driver seems to be the Exchange rate with the CHF.. As long as the price of new watches increases this will drag up the price of the older models although I would think the CHF has peaked so any future rises would not be as great as those seen in recent years
Regarding the 16600 price dropping, i don't believe this will be the case. If i look at the price of the 16610LV versus the Ceramic 116610LV - this is now on a par ( watchfinder list an old LV (2008) at £5750 - the same price as a 2011 Ceramic LV)
There will always be those people who want to have the latest version but also there will always be those people who hanker after a particular model of watch. As the older discontinued models get rarer ( especially in good condition) that can only help
From a personal perspective ( as a multiple watch buyer) I would always be more interested in the older model , simply as it is no longer in production and I would always convince myself that i could buy the newer model at a later date
What does that mean?
Just 6 weeks ago one of the larger used watch shops around the Lanes in Brighton had an SD in the window up for sale at£3.5K.
Not much change from £6K to be had by the time you add a flight,getting to and from airport,hire car/taxis,possible hotel for the night depending on flight times,meal with wine and the real world rate of exchange on purchase. And that's before you've added on the booklets and toolkit to complete the set. What kind of watchbroker are you?!? :)
It means that I don't believe in overpaying for anything, quite frankly. It means that anyone paying £7k for a watch that's worth around £4.5k - £5k tops anywhere else is either silly or has money to burn. As another poster mentioned, you'll neither lose or make a lot of money on a 16600 in the long term.
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